These days, we seem to be going through a stormy period in which the immediate future remains unclear.
What Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be holding in store for us is a return to a new round of intensive warfare in the Gaza Strip, the main goal of which is to bring about, at long last, the total defeat of Hamas both as a military force and as an administrative body.
Return of hostages
The return of the remaining 59 hostages – of whom, according to President Donald Trump, only 21 are still alive – is still a goal in Netanyahu’s eyes but in second place after the victory over Hamas. However, he claims that the defeat of the terrorist organization October 7 perpetrator will lead to a change in its attitude to the hostages, and to its agreeing to a partial deal without conditioning it on a permanent end to the fighting – an assumption that might or might not actually take place.
In order to stop Hamas’s ability to continue carrying out various administrative functions in Gaza, Netanyahu decided at the beginning of March to stop all international humanitarian aid entering the Strip.
The logic behind this move is that if the humanitarian aid ceases, Hamas will not be able to assume control over it by force, and sell it to hapless Gazans at exorbitant prices, using the proceeds to finance its continued military expenditures and administrative costs.
Total victory
However, the total victory Netanyahu keeps talking about is elusive, and for the last year and a half has failed to materialize.
One of the reasons for this is the fact that a regular army such as the IDF is at a certain disadvantage when confronting a terrorist organization using guerrilla tactics, even if the latter (in this case, Hamas) has lost most of its effective military power and leadership capabilities.
Another reason is that despite endless prodding by the previous Biden administration, that Israel start planning an alternative civil administration for the Gaza Strip, very little if anything has actually been done by Israel over the last year and a half to start preparing an effective alternative. This is not least of all because Netanyahu does not want to see Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority getting involved, and has reservations about all the other options that have been raised.
Reconquer Gaza
Thus, in fact, the only option that remains is that Israel should reconquer the Gaza Strip, or at least part of it, and that some form of Israeli administration, other than full military rule, will be reinstated there in the embattled coastal enclave.
But these are not the only obstacles to a successful Israeli military move back into the Gaza Strip. In the course of the last week, Trump appeared to be moving along several tangents in the Middle East, all of which seem to ignore Israeli interests, and worse still, direct Israeli involvement.
Houthis and Iran
The US president reported that he had reached an agreement with the Houthis in Yemen to the effect that they would stop targeting international shipping along the Red Sea (though excluding Israeli vessels), in return for the US stopping its massive aerial attacks on Houthi targets.
However, the agreement does not include stopping the launching of missiles by the Houthis against Israel, though Jerusalem has reportedly been informed by new US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee that if the Houthis continue launching missiles in Israel’s direction, Washington will react.
Is this an American commitment? For the time being, the fact is that a ballistic missile launched last Tuesday from Yemen fell within the perimeters of Ben-Gurion Airport and resulted in the stoppage of flights to Israel by most of the major foreign airlines, but has not resulted in any sort of American reaction.
Trump is also continuing talks with Iran over a nuclear agreement that is designed to stop Iran from becoming nuclear in the military sense, even though Israel continues to argue that Iran’s entire nuclear capabilities must be physically destroyed.
Saudi Arabia
Finally, the US president is also determined to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia toward its development of a non-military nuclear capability with American assistance, and selling the kingdom major American armaments, without conditioning all of this on the Saudis normalizing their relations with Israel, as had been done under the Biden administration.
To add insult to injury, on his current visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, Trump is not planning a stopover in Israel – and a planned visit by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which was to have taken place next week, was canceled.
At the moment, it is not clear whether, with all the conciliatory talks the president is holding with various partners in the Middle East, the US nevertheless supports Israel’s plan to renew a full-scale war in the Gaza Strip, after Trump completes his Middle East tour. The president was quoted on Sunday as saying that such a war was superfluous.
Humanitarian aid to Gaza
However, we have taken note that the humanitarian aid is soon to be renewed at US prodding, and distributed by private American aid outfits, which will enjoy Israeli military protection for their efforts.
Whether the Americans will continue to be involved in efforts to release at least some of the hostages still being held by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in the face of Netanyahu’s sluggish attitude to the issue, is another unknown.
Last but not least, Netanyahu has some serious domestic difficulties connected with his war plans in the Gaza Strip.
IDF recruitment and call-ups
The IDF has repeatedly announced that it is short of at least 12,000 new recruits, without any progress visible with regard to the enlistment of haredim for mandatory military service, which could resolve this problem.
At the same time, difficulties are expected regarding tens of thousands of call-ups for reserve duty, in a situation where numerous reservists have already served for hundreds of days since October 2023. Many incurred serious financial difficulties resulting from their businesses having gone bankrupt, or from losing their jobs, not to mention marital problems resulting from their long absences from home.
Though the dimensions of the problem are not yet clear, there is concern that reservist turnout toward the next round of fighting will be much lower than it was at the beginning of the war.
All this gives rise to serious concerns. What we seem to need at the moment is a miracle, or a major change of heart by our prime minister. Both will be welcome.
Since 1966, the writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. In 1994-2010, she worked in the Knesset library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.