My analysis that follows is a synthesis of my discussions in Congress, the US State Department, past meetings with the Qataris, Omanis, and Saudis, with members of the Knesset, think tanks, the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Israeli government leaders, and now my seventh time with Israeli forces since I was in Sderot on that horrible day of Hamas’s invasion and massacre on October 7, 2023.
My advice is from someone from the security-minded internationalist camp who sees Israel’s safety and image of strength in the Middle East as a priority for the US to stabilize the region and advance American interests.
However, as American democracy is now constituted, the executive makes foreign policy, and the Senate is either too fearful or weak to have much impact on an imperial-style president who values foreign allies in dollar transactions, and listens to American voices that are a throwback to the Republican isolationists of the past.
It has not been one of Israel’s strengths to strategize beyond short- to medium-term goals. It has always been easier not to do the heavy lifting of mapping contingencies for long-term stable foreign relationships, other than with the US.
In America’s defense, not many nations other than the US have cared about the Jewish state’s survival. Over the last 77 years, America and Israel have had a special relationship, despite their ups and downs, where democratic values, not transactions, were the guiding light.
Unfortunately, those days may be gone, as the Trump administration prioritizes deals and victories measured in dollars. American exceptionalism, its role as leader of the free world, is out, while America chastises its allies as free-loaders, especially the Europeans.
The new reality is expressed by Joel Rayburn, Trump’s nominee to be the State Department’s top Middle East official, who said Gulf countries are “becoming the partners of choice.” We hear praise for Qatar, which supports and hosts Islamists and jihadists of all stripes while pouring billions into the United States to influence American policy, targeting our halls of legislature and universities. Many influential people in the US are now beneficiaries of Qatari largesse.
Today, a grenade has been thrown into the American-Israel special relationship. At least for the next three and a half years of the Trump term, and probably much longer, no matter whether a Democrat or Republican follows Trump, the relationship will not be the same.
Trump sidelining Israel
The writing was already on the wall to reimage the partnership during the Biden administration. Despite the public protestations of his administration, Biden choked the supply of American munitions to Israel, impeding Israel’s path to a quicker military victory over Hamas. I was in the field reporting in early 2024 and I saw this firsthand.
Today, Trump has sidelined Israel in his deal with the Houthis, leaving Israel vulnerable to continued ballistic attacks, and removed sanctions against Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, a passionate jihadist yesterday, professing to be a good neighbor today, despite Israel’s warnings to be wary of his Islamist group’s intentions.
Netanyahu and Israeli leaders of the future have no choice but to view this as an opportunity to chart a more independent course and develop a more balanced relationship with America. That would include developing alternative munitions and weapons supply lines.
The Trump administration’s diplomatic developments should push Israeli political, academic, and defense strategists to accelerate plans and diplomatic initiatives with countries such as India that do not instinctively hate Jews but value what Israel can offer them, while sharing their common interests in confronting radical Islamism.
Europe, sadly, is not Israel’s answer. With its growing Muslim population, throwing Israel under the bus is politically expedient and not inconsistent with its long history of ambivalence toward Jews in general, and the strain of animus toward the Jewish state today.
Israel should anticipate American pressure not only concerning hostage deals but also to withdraw from its nine forward-based positions in Syria and its five topographically advantageous positions in southern Lebanon. The US administration, unlike the populace of northern Israel, can afford to entertain the fantasy that the Lebanese government will contain Hezbollah quickly.
With deals and paper victories the measure of American success in the Trump administration, if it pressures Israel to withdraw from its one-kilometer buffer zone around the Gaza border communities, and even from the Philadelphi Corridor, the spigot of weapons supply for Hamas in Gaza would reopen.
If this happens, the Israelis who suffered the most from the October 7 massacre by Hamas – those living on the border around Gaza and have returned to their homes – will leave, knowing there is nothing between them and their families, and would-be murderers. I heard this during my meetings with officers.
Israel needs to begin strategizing
Israel's ultimate fear is a weak American nuclear deal with Iran, which, based on history, Iran will ignore and continue with its atomic weaponization. It will leave Israel little choice but to go it alone, with or without Trump’s approval, and then wait to bear the wrath of Trump if it attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities after he concludes a deal with the mullahs in Tehran. Meanwhile, economic sanctions will be relaxed, allowing billions to pour again into the financing of Iran’s proxies.
Israel always lives in extraordinary times, and the Trump administration has already dealt the cards. Israel needs to play its hand now, even if the deck differs from just a few years ago, and begin strategizing in earnest, seeing beyond the immediate unprecedented challenges in its seven-front war, despite how difficult they are.
No matter what Trump decides to do with Iran, Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, Israel has no choice in the near term except to work with the administration and make lemonade out of lemons.
My hope for American national security interests is that security-minded voices in the administration can convince the president that he can have trillion-dollar deals, but also needs a strong Israel for US security interests. Creating the perception of more daylight with Israel creates more instability, increasing the chance for wars – the exact opposite of what the administration should want.
If the Trump team thinks its transactional course, which relegates Israel to a more secondary status, is the best for America, I would recommend that they also choose to make it a priority to help Israel facilitate and strengthen new relationships with transactional American partners, from Saudi Arabia to India and beyond.
I know the president wants to do this with Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation. Still, they must remember that unless Israel is perceived as strong and has reliable American backing, those nations will not take the chance to engage diplomatically and economically.
A new foreign policy era is upon America and Israel. Still, I am cautiously optimistic that future administrations will return to the realization that America needs Israel as much as Israel needs the US, based on both shared national security and value-based interests.
The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN) and is the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report.