US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf signals the dawn of a new Middle East paradigm where Israel finds itself uninvited to the table it helped set. And as the old saying goes, “If you’re not at the table, you’re probably on the menu.”
For over 18 months, Israel shouldered the weight of regional conflict, achieving significant military objectives that provided the political oxygen for Trump’s grand Gulf summit. The decimation of Hezbollah, the isolation of Hamas, the weakening of Iran, and the collapse of Assad’s regime – none would have occurred without Israel’s strategic pressure campaign. Yet when Trump convened leaders in Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi to discuss a new regional compact, Israel was nowhere in sight.
Why? Because Israel’s current leadership is stuck fighting yesterday’s wars. If Israel wants back in, it must rethink what it is offering, not only as a fortress, but as a bridge.
In this emerging “art of the deal” regional order, shaped by sovereign partnerships, economic pragmatism, and mutual self-interest, military power alone is no longer sufficient currency. Trump’s Middle East vision prioritizes results over sentiment. He praised the Gulf states for achieving “peace, prosperity, and progress” through self-reliance, cultural authenticity, and sovereign ambition, explicitly distancing himself from the neoconservatism and nation-building vision of previous administrations.
“You achieved a modern miracle the Arabian way,” Trump told Gulf leaders, signaling that the US now seeks business partners, not ideological allies. Israel can no longer rely on being “the only democracy in the Middle East.” The bar has shifted from shared values to demonstrated value.
The Israeli government’s commitment to “total victory” has led Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing partners to misread the room entirely. The first weeks after Trump’s election seemed like a wet dream for Jerusalem: Trump threatened that “hell will break out” if the hostages weren’t released, lifted the block on 2,000-pound bombs, and invited Netanyahu to the White House for a red-carpet rollout of the controversial “Gaza plan.”
But what Israeli officials mistook for a blank check was a deal with a clear expiration date. The signals came quickly: Trump’s envoy initiated quiet talks with Hamas behind Israel’s back. Netanyahu’s emergency DC visit yielded no strike on Iran. Instead, Trump announced direct diplomatic talks with Tehran. Soon after, American strikes on the Houthis stopped without guarantees for Israeli security.
Trump is serious about his ambition to be peacemaker
THESE ACTIONS demonstrate that Trump is serious about his ambition to be a peacemaker and deliver on his promise of no new wars. The Israeli Right now confronts a deeper American strategy: stabilizing the Middle East in favor of those ready to do business, all in service of building a unified front against America’s real threat: China and the emerging AI war.
This strategic “pivot to Asia” began under Obama, but global crises kept pulling the US back into the region, whether it was the Arab Spring and Syrian civil war, or the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting energy crunch that pushed former US president Joe Biden back toward Riyadh. Trump now believes the conditions are finally ripe to lock in a Middle East policy that reflects clear American priorities.
Israel may understand this shift intellectually, but the current leadership remains structurally incapable of adapting. A political coalition rooted in hawkish rhetoric and domestic survivalism struggles to wield diplomatic tools effectively.
Trump didn’t come to save Israel. He came to save America. If Israel wants to join the ride, it’s welcome aboard. If not, it will be left fading in the rearview mirror.
Though often couched in the language of shared values, the Israel-US special relationship has fundamentally been interest-driven. America supported Israel primarily because it served American strategic interests. This pattern has repeated throughout history: Wilson backed the Balfour Declaration to support Britain in WWI; Eisenhower’s anger over the 1956 Suez Crisis gave way to deeper Cold War ties and the Eisenhower Doctrine; Reagan signed groundbreaking economic and military agreements despite frustrations over Lebanon; and post-9/11, Israel positioned itself as a key ally in the war on terror [officially known as Global War on Terrorism (GWOT)].
In each era, Israel presented itself as America’s most efficient and loyal partner. That logic still holds: To regain relevance, Israel must offer more than firepower. It must become a regional connector, a diplomatic broker, a tech and trade facilitator.
However Israel isn’t alone in struggling to adapt. The American Jewish community, long a reliable bridge between Jerusalem and Washington, is also at a moment of reckoning. Then-president Harry Truman’s swift recognition of Israel in 1948 followed years of intense lobbying, and for decades, Jewish organizers built a bipartisan wall of congressional support through sophisticated grassroots activism and strategic donor positioning.
Political fragmentation, rising antisemitism erodes political capital
TODAY, POLITICAL fragmentation, rising antisemitism, and internal divisions have eroded their political capital. While Jews still overwhelmingly vote Democratic, on matters related to Israel, they increasingly find themselves aligned with evangelical Republicans, placing them at odds with their own political camp. Groups such as AIPAC remain powerful but reactive, focused on blocking anti-Israel candidates rather than articulating a compelling pro-Israel vision.
Israel’s current exclusion, paradoxically, offers opportunity.
Trump still envisions a broader Abraham Accords framework that could potentially include Syria, Lebanon, and others. In Trump’s calculus, normalization with Israel serves several ends: regional prosperity, security cooperation, containment of Iran, and his coveted Nobel Peace Prize.
This moment in the Middle East proves how vital it is for Israel to adapt and rethink its regional positioning.
To reclaim its strategic relevance, Israel must offer more than military strength. Its cutting-edge AI and defense technologies can form a crucial third pillar in a new regional triangle to address the challenges of the 21st century: Gulf investment, US power projection, and Israeli R&D.
Israel must signal readiness to end the war on terms balancing justice and pragmatism: the full return of all hostages, reconstruction of Gaza with a meaningful GCC presence and a technocratic Palestinian Authority (PA), and the total disarmament of Hamas. As Hamas attempts to replicate Hezbollah’s model of political integration without disarmament, Israel must set a firm boundary while offering incentives like expanded West Bank autonomy.
Economically, Israel must elevate its role in the IMEC corridor, positioning itself as a builder of a land bridge that undercuts Houthi maritime threats. This includes deepening integration with Jordan and Egypt, as well as pragmatic cooperation with Syria and Turkey.
American Jews must also rise to the moment. Institutional leaders who failed to prepare for today’s antisemitism must make room for younger, bolder voices. A new generation of post-October 7 Jews must reengage in civic and political life, reclaiming Jewish representation across the political spectrum.
American Jews should rally around a new strategic vision of the Abraham Accords, not as a diplomatic footnote but as a central pillar of Jewish life in the 21st century.
Just as previous generations mobilized to support the founding of the State of Israel, this generation must champion a bold future rooted in regional integration and shared prosperity. This must include investing in educational and civic partnerships that strengthen ties not just between governments, but between peoples.
The Israel-US relationship has always rested on two pillars: effective political organizing by American Jews and smart Israeli strategies that align with core American interests. Today, those systems are out of sync, creating a dangerous vulnerability. But if both can recalibrate and recommit to the shared project of alignment with American interests, they won’t need to beg for a seat at the table. They will help design it.
The writer is the Middle East Initiative fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and an Elson Israel fellow at the Jewish Federation of Tulsa.