Just three weeks after October 7, 2023, Israeli Military Intelligence created a concept paper proposing a temporary transfer of the Gazan population to Egypt to deal with a completely underestimated Hamas war machine. Hamas had purposely enmeshed within the civilian population, using them as human shields, and had a multilayered subterranean tunnel network longer than the London metro.
I wrote at the time that the best way to deal with Hamas was to take control and demilitarize the entire Gaza Strip. The only way to do that was by temporarily moving the population first and allowing them to return when the area was cleared of Hamas and security could be restored.
I added that more carrots and sticks needed to be offered to Egypt to accept the Palestinians, and Israel should have a temporary camp for refugees in the Negev to give Egypt some cover for providing sanctuary to the civilians, as Israel did militarily what it needed to do.
Unfortunately, the Biden administration would hear none of it, having no interest in pressuring Egypt, and was already on their way to slowing the transfer of munitions to Israel, slowing the progress of the war, and creating conditions for Israel to be not only much less effective but condemned by the international community for prolonging the war.
Now, Israel is beginning Operation Gideon’s Chariots, whose goal is to dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities by moving 75% of the population of the Gaza Strip within two months and holding the territory so that Israel can effectively deal with the remaining Hamas fighters and finish dealing with the tunnel network, which was initially believed to be too complex and dangerous to dismantle fully.
Only 25% of tunnels have been destroyed
According to the Wall Street Journal, quoting an Israeli military official, Israel has “so far destroyed about 25% of the hundreds of miles of tunnels Hamas has dug under Gaza.” That means 75% of the tunnels are still operational, many in areas that Israel has never attacked.
I knew that prioritizing the destruction of the whole tunnel network was not part of Israel’s strategy. Still, when I brought this information up to US officials and Israelis, they seemed unaware.
Tom O’Connor, foreign policy and deputy editor for national security at Newsweek, wrote “Why Israel’s new Gaza operation is different.” According to IDF spokesperson Lt.-Col. Nadav Shoshani, regarding the tunnel network, we must “make sure we take away their infrastructure… I think one thing we saw at the beginning of the war.
“We got a lot better at it as time goes by – not to say we haven’t done that, but we have also got a lot better at it – is really having a thorough process of digging up the infrastructure underground, making sure that those terrorists are not hiding or running away to hide behind civilians and then grouping once we leave an area.”
Further, it is proof that the tunnel network was not prioritized in the past 19 months.
Israel now has a definitive plan to move the Palestinian civilians provisionally into three locations in Gaza, comprising 25% of the territory. It will finally give the IDF the time and space to clear Hamas from the territory and deal with the tunnel network definitively. It is still believed that a significant part of the Hamas brigades are intact, using the tens of miles of the tunnel network as a refuge.
Managing US expectations in the war
While an impatient US administration wants deals and victories quickly, Israel has said the operation will take two months. Managing expectations is essential, and even if Israel could clear and hold 75% of the Gaza Strip in two months, which is highly unlikely, the operation to deal with the other 25% of the territory where Hamas is hiding among the displaced civilian population will not only take more time, but the civilian death toll will rise significantly.
It is likely that US President Donald Trump will be unhappy with this open-ended operation. He can be expected to pressure Israel to prematurely end the operation, which will likely need years, not months, of continuing occupation to prevent Hamas’s resurgence.
Trump has recently intensified his efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza and to secure the release of hostages, telling Netanyahu to end the war “as quickly as possible” and “wrap it up.” He has now asked Israel to slow its offensive to give the hostage negotiations with Hamas more time, according to The Jerusalem Post.
Palestinian-American Bishara Bahbah has been working on behalf of the administration to deal with Hamas directly. Suppose he, or special envoy Steve Witkoff, negotiates an agreement with Hamas for the release of all of the hostages but demands in return that Israel end its offensive and commit to a withdrawal from its buffer zone around the Gaza envelope as well as the Philadelphi corridor. Can Netanyahu say no to the US president?
Operation Gideon’s Chariots may finally be the correct operation to deal effectively with Hamas’s military and governing structure. But will Trump give the operation the time it needs to succeed?
The writer is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy aides, and the State Department.