Throughout the past 20 years, the relationship between Turkey and Israel has seen many ups and downs. However, the current low point in diplomatic ties and the heightened tensions between the Turks and Israelis may be unprecedented since the final days of the Ottoman Empire’s rule over the Land of Israel.
Not long after Israel resumed cooperation with Erdogan’s Turkey, October 7, 2023, happened and everything changed. Suddenly, Ankara seemed to forget Israel’s aid to Turkey during the earthquake, as well as the countries’ joint gas pipeline projects. Despite the brutal Hamas assault that saw Israeli civilians massacred in cold blood, Erdogan chose to side with Hamas and the residents of Gaza.
In past diplomatic crises between Israel and Turkey, blame was usually shared by both sides. This time, however, Israel did nothing to provoke Turkey but only went to wage a defensive war to protect its children from a bloodthirsty enemy. That moment marked a turning point in Israeli-Turkish relations.
Erdogan halted imports from Israel, and in response, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich suspended imports from Turkey. For over a year and three months, the confrontation between the two countries played out through public statements and an ongoing “economic war.”
But everything changed last December with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. In his place rose Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former leader of the al-Qaeda-aligned group Jabhat al-Nusra, later rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – a group systematically supported by Turkey over the years.
With Sharaa’s rise to power, Syria effectively became a Turkish proxy. Suddenly, Israel and Turkey shared a de facto border, turning a diplomatic rift into one with a dangerous potential for military confrontation.
The Israel-Azerbaijan alliance
Caught in the middle of this geopolitical tension is Azerbaijan. Turkey is Azerbaijan’s closest ally, their bond often described as “one nation, two states.” Turkey supports Azerbaijan across many sectors and acts as a protective “big sister.”
At the same time, Israel is considered Azerbaijan’s strongest friend, particularly given their shared concerns over provocations and threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Although the Israel-Azerbaijan alliance began as a response to the Persian threat, it has since expanded into collaboration in defense, science, telecommunications, agriculture, and other fields.
Wanting to prevent conflict between its two closest allies, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev took the initiative and invited both Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a trilateral summit in hopes of resolving the rift. Unfortunately, reality often thwarts diplomacy, and Erdogan refused to allow Netanyahu’s plane to fly over Turkish airspace en route to Baku.
This not only sabotaged Aliyev’s mediation effort but also forced the postponement of Netanyahu’s visit to Azerbaijan in what was widely seen as a humiliating snub. It wasn’t the first time Erdogan had blocked Israeli leaders from flying over Turkey. He had previously denied Israeli President Isaac Herzog permission to fly over Turkey on his way to a UN climate conference in Baku.
Azerbaijan’s strategic objectives
Beyond Azerbaijan’s noble goal of regional peace through its close ties with both Turkey and Israel, the country has another strategic objective: joining the Abraham Accords. While the accords were originally designed to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states with which it lacked formal diplomatic ties, Baku saw something others missed: the US is also a party to the Abraham Accords. Azerbaijan hopes that joining the Accords will not only strengthen its ties with Israel and the Gulf states but also elevate its status in Washington.
In the 1990s, during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, the US imposed an arms embargo on both Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, Armenia enjoyed preferential treatment thanks to a strong Armenian lobby in Washington. Azerbaijan’s standing in the US deteriorated further in November 2023 when the US Congress passed the “Armenia Protection Act of 2023” under the Biden administration, which banned US arms sales to Azerbaijan and blocked all legal avenues to do so.
Now, with Donald Trump back in the White House, Azerbaijan is hopeful for a shift in American policy. From Baku’s perspective, the road to Washington runs through Jerusalem – a convenient route, given the warm and close ties between Azerbaijan and Israel.
As part of this deepening relationship, Azerbaijan has sought stronger integration with Israel, particularly in the energy sector. In January, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR acquired a 10% stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field. In March, SOCAR signed a gas exploration agreement with Israel’s Energy Ministry, receiving a license to search for gas in Israel’s northern economic waters.
For many years, Azerbaijan has been a steadfast friend to Israel and this did not change even after October 7, despite its geographic and cultural proximity to Iran. It deserves recognition from the United States as a key strategic partner. Azerbaijan mediates conflicts, collaborates closely with Israel, and just as it remains loyal to Jerusalem, it is ready to be a loyal partner to Washington as well.
The writer is a Middle East scholar and commentator on the region.