Turkish might, Qatari wealth spearhead a new radical Sunni axis in the Middle East - opinion

International and domestic circumstances favor Turkey’s bid for a greater international role.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule over Turkey since the turn of the century has steadily dismantled the remnants of Ankara’s cautious Kemalist foreign policy tradition, as he adopted an ambitious radical Islamist and nationalist agenda.

Global shifts have facilitated the implementation of this ambitious Islamist and neo-Ottoman vision. The collapse of the Soviet empire largely freed Turkey from the historic Russian threat and opened new avenues for Turkish influence eastward, across the Turkic world that had been subject to decades of Soviet dominance. More recently, Moscow’s entanglement in Ukraine has further diminished Turkey’s security concerns to the north.

To Turkey’s south, the Middle East has likewise descended into disarray. In 2003, the United States toppled the dangerous Saddam Hussein-led regime in Iraq. Since the so-called Arab Spring, the Assad dynasty in Syria has been consumed by civil war and now lacks the capacity to challenge Ankara. As a result of Israel’s multifront war, Iran’s proxies in the region were seriously weakened, leading, inter alia, to Bashar Assad’s fall and the takeover of Damascus by Islamists backed by Turkey. Israel’s military campaign has also diminished the regional clout of Iran – Turkey’s traditional strategic rival in the Middle East and Central Asia.

In addition, the US plan to withdraw troops from Syria strengthens Ankara’s hand in that country. Moreover, President Donald Trump’s mistaken view of Erdogan as a friend has reassured Ankara that there will be little American interference in its tacit ambitions to revive the Ottoman Empire and assert hegemony in the Middle East. Most European governments, lacking basic strategic foresight, are primarily concerned with Turkey’s ability to channel refugees westward (mostly Syrians and Africans reaching Libya – the gate to Europe) and its role as an energy hub for Europe, which seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.

Developments both within Turkey and beyond its borders give Erdogan a freer hand to pursue Ottoman grandeur – a vision shared also by many Turkish secularists – and to seek a greater role in the Islamic world.

Erdogan and much of his coterie are a Turkish incarnation of the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical anti-Western movement.

Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman vision has become clearer over time. In his electoral victory speech in June 2011, he proclaimed that cities once part of the Ottoman Empire would benefit from his electoral achievement, mentioning Sarajevo, Beirut, Damascus, Ramallah, and Jerusalem.

The Turkish “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) naval doctrine, introduced in 2019, is no less ambitious. It envisions Turkey as the dominant maritime power in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, and the Black Sea. Ankara’s burgeoning naval procurement reflects its desire to secure and expand Turkey’s access to energy resources in the region at the expense of other actors.

As a NATO member, Turkey’s military has access to the latest American and European weapon systems. It possesses the second-largest military force in NATO, after the United States. Turkey has not hesitated to flex its military muscles: it has seized parts of northern Syria, established bases in Iraq to fight Kurdish forces, and intervened in Libya’s civil war on behalf of the Tripoli government. It supported the Azeri intervention in the Nagorno Karabakh. Turkish troops are stationed in Qatar and in Somalia, and Ankara has sought to obtain a naval base in Sudan. Turkey has invested heavily in developing indigenous military industries and exports several of its products – the most prominent being the Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle.

Turkey increasingly seeks to reduce its reliance on Western alliances and position itself as a more independent player. Ankara courts both China and Russia, and did not hesitate to purchase the S-400 air defense system from Moscow. It is also a dialogue partner and seeking membership in the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

How Qatar supports Turkey

Today, a new radical Sunni axis has emerged, ideologically inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, backed by Turkey’s military might and Qatar’s financial prowess.

Paradoxically, the blows administered by Israel against the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis have lessened Doha’s fears of Tehran – with which it maintains both diplomatic and energy ties – thus giving it greater freedom of action in the Sunni world. The most likely arena of competition is Syria. Saudi Arabia believes that it can use its economic leverage to curb Turkish-Qatari influence there. Unfortunately, experience teaches that the Saudis have a poor record in such endeavors: Riyadh’s efforts failed in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Its attempts to isolate Qatar were similarly disappointing.

Yet, Israel remains an affront to Islamist and neo-Ottoman sensibilities. Erdogan and other Islamists covet Jerusalem, which is under Israeli control. Furthermore, Islamists reject Jewish self-determination and Israel’s right to exist. Erdogan has prayed for Israel’s destruction. If ideology triumphs over pragmatism, armed conflict may be inevitable.

This is not just a regional contest: Turkey supported Muslim Pakistan (a protégé of China) against India.

Erdogan has expressed his desire to acquire nuclear weapons and did not refrain from supporting ISIS and Hamas. The Middle East continues to pose a dual threat: nuclear proliferation and Islamist terrorism.

As Shi’ite Iran weakens, it is being replaced by a radical Sunni alliance. Democracies must wake up to this new danger.

The writer is a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and chairman of the program on strategy, diplomacy and security at the Shalem College.