Scientists are sounding the alarm over asteroid 2024 YR4, which has risen to the top of NASA's risk chart with a slim but measurable chance of striking Earth in 2032. Current estimates place the probability of impact at 1.2%, making it the most dangerous known near-Earth object (NEO) monitored by the European Space Agency's (ESA) Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC). Seemingly low, the probability surpasses that of any other known asteroid and has prompted calls for increased observation and analysis.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2022, at the ATLAS Observatory in Chile as part of a project supported by NASA. The asteroid's diameter is estimated to be approximately 70 meters, with some estimates ranging between 40 to 100 meters. This size makes it three to four times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite that exploded over Russia in 2013, causing widespread damage and injuries.
The next close approach of asteroid 2024 YR4 is projected for December 22, 2032, when it may pose a potential danger, with an estimated 1.2% chance of impact.
"At the moment, the probability of a collision with Earth is estimated by different organizations from 0.5% to 6%. Six percent means that out of 16 scenarios, one suggests a collision," said Stanislav Korotky, scientific director of the Ka-Dar Observatory and the Astrofarms Astroverts. The uncertainty in the probability estimates stems from the asteroid's short observation period of only 34 days and the long forecast time frame of eight years. Scientists emphasize that precise information about the asteroid will only emerge with further observations.
Mohammed Shawkat Awda, Director of the Abu Dhabi-based International Astronomical Center and member of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), confirmed that current observations are insufficient to determine the asteroid's trajectory accurately. "The accuracy in determining the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 is still less than sufficient to resolve the issue, and more observations are needed to accurately chart and determine its orbit," he stated, as reported by CNN. Awda called on astronomical observatories to urgently focus on observing asteroid 2024 YR4, though he acknowledged that the opportunity for accurate observation will be better in 2028.
The asteroid's classification has reached Level 3 on the Torino Scale, which rates the hazard posed by asteroids and comets from 1 to 10. This is the highest level ever assigned to an asteroid in history, surpassing even that of asteroid Apophis, according to 20 Minuten. The Level 3 rating indicates that "current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction," according to the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, scientists estimate that it would release about 8 megatons of energy, which is more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, reported Gizmodo. Such an impact could cause destruction within a radius of 30 kilometers, comparable to the energy released in the Tunguska blast of 1908, which flattened an estimated 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest.
Izvestia detailed that the potential collision path of asteroid 2024 YR4 extends from western Central America, passing through northern South America, the central Atlantic Ocean, parts of Africa, and reaching India. If a collision occurs, it is most likely to land in the Central Africa region or the Atlantic Ocean.
Scientists are cautiously optimistic that the asteroid will not pose a significant threat. "Collision with Earth is not a certainty, and it is quite possible that there will be no asteroid fall at all. For now, there's no need to worry, because the chance of collision is still very low. Most likely, this asteroid will miss Earth," reported Gizmodo. The probability of impact is expected to decrease with each subsequent observation, and data will be refined further around 2028 and 2029.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 will return to approach Earth again on December 17, 2028, but this passage will not pose a danger. "On that occasion, 2024 YR4 will certainly be studied closely," reported 20 Minuten. New observations during this time will allow scientists to calculate its properties and trajectory more precisely, potentially leading to a downgrade in its hazard classification. "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0," or a "No hazard" rating, according to CNEOS's website, as cited by Gizmodo.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.