The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a surge in global electricity consumption over the next three years, averaging nearly 4% per year until 2027. This projection was detailed in the IEA's recent report, Electricity 2025. The IEA predicts an increase of 3,500 terawatt-hours in global electricity consumption during this period, which corresponds to adding more than Japan's total annual electricity consumption to the world's electricity consumption each year.
Emerging and developing economies are expected to make up 85% of the growth in electricity demand through 2027, with the trend particularly evident in China, Seeking Alpha reports. China's electricity consumption is projected to increase by an average of six percent annually until 2027, with the IEA estimating that China will constitute more than half of the increase in global electricity demand.
The trend of increasing electricity demand is most pronounced in China, where it has been growing faster than the overall economy since 2020. Driving this growth is China's industrial sector, particularly in energy-intensive activities such as the manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, which are contributing to the rise in electricity demand. Other factors contributing to China's growing electricity demand include the increased use of air conditioning, data centers, and the rollout of 5G networks.
"The acceleration of global electricity demand highlights significant changes occurring in energy systems worldwide and the approach of a new era of electricity," said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's Director of Energy Markets and Security, according to Euro2day. He added that while emerging and developing economies are expected to account for about 85% of the growth in global electricity demand, consumption is also likely to increase in many advanced economies after a period of relative stagnation.
In advanced economies like the US, total and per capita electricity demand stayed relatively flat or even declined since 2009, largely due to increased efficiency across all end-use sectors. However, the IEA warned that decision-makers in developed economies should be alert, as consumption may jump there as well, with the United States, the European Union, and Japan preparing to record increases in electricity demand.
Electricity demand in the EU is expected to return to its 2021 levels by 2027, driven by increased use of heat pumps, electric cars, and higher demand from data centers, after declines in 2022 and 2023 due to the energy crisis. The IEA analysis notes that electricity demand in the European Union is recovering from the economic downturn of recent years.
India is expected to be a contributor to the global increase in electricity demand, accounting for about 10% of the global increase due to its strong economic activity and rapid increase in air conditioning use.
The IEA expects low-emission energy sources, particularly renewables and nuclear power, to meet the growing electricity demand during the forecast period. Solar energy is expected to become the second-largest source of low-emission energy by 2027, covering about 50% of the increase in global electricity demand.
Nuclear power is experiencing a resurgence, with contributions from the recovery in French nuclear production and the restart of reactors in Japan boosting generation. The IEA reports that nuclear electricity generation will reach new highs every year starting from 2025, indicating a strong comeback for nuclear energy.
Despite the increasing importance of low-emission energy, no decline in the use of fossil energy sources is expected worldwide by 2027, Frankfurter Allgemeine notes. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions from global electricity generation are expected to stabilize in the coming years after an approximate one percent increase in 2024. With 13,800 million tons of CO₂ in the previous year, emissions from electricity generation are still the highest of all sectors, according to the IEA.
Air conditioning is contributing to the rise in electricity consumption in China, with Chinese households increasingly equipping themselves with air conditioning. "In Japan and the US, 90% of households have an air conditioner. More air conditioners mean more electricity demand, especially with rising temperatures and more frequent heat waves," noted Sadamori.
The rapid expansion of data centers is a factor driving the increase in electricity consumption, with these centers consuming about 100 terawatt-hours of electricity last year. Data centers' electricity consumption in China could double by 2027, further exacerbating the demand for electricity.
Electrification is progressing rapidly in China, contributing to its higher share of electricity in total energy consumption (28%) compared to the United States (22%) and the EU (21%). In China, the increased use of air conditioners, the rising demand for charging electric vehicles, and the adoption of electric vehicles are driving up electricity demand.
The IEA believes that the growth of low-emission energy sources, especially renewable energies and nuclear energy, will be sufficient to cover the increase in global electricity demand in the next three years. However, producing more electricity also carries ecological risks, as noted by the report, since it means emitting more CO₂, and despite the rapid increase in production from green energy sources, it is likely not enough to reduce emissions.
In the EU, renewable energies, which grew by 8.4% last year, will continue to grow rapidly. Renewable energies in the European Union will grow at an average annual rate of 7.2% until 2027, which will compensate for the closure of fossil fuel power plants, including coal and natural gas.
However, during this period, energy from coal will remain approximately unchanged, with global coal-fired power generation expected to stagnate, and a decline in coal-fired power generation in the EU and the US will be offset by increases in India and Southeast Asia. "However, it also presents ongoing challenges for governments regarding ensuring a safe, affordable, and sustainable electricity supply," said Sadamori.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.