A study by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology warned that Venice could be completely submerged by 2150 without additional protective measures. The research combined geodetic data from GNSS station networks, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery, and topographic surveys and projected that up to 226 square kilometers of the Venice Lagoon could lie underwater under the worst-case scenario.
The study found that rising water levels—exacerbated by an increasing sea level and land subsidence estimated at 7 millimeters per year—threatened the local population and the city’s historical heritage. “Without additional protective measures, this will lead to flooding and significant damage both to the local population and to Venice’s cultural heritage,” said scientist.
The MOSE mobile barrier system was implemented in 2020 to prevent flooding from extreme tides. Originally designed to protect Venice from surges of up to three meters and to address a projected sea-level rise of 60 centimeters over a century, recent assessments indicated that the system might no longer suffice as climate change accelerated. Researchers noted that the barrier’s capacity was at risk of being exceeded by higher water levels and intensified tidal events.
To assess the threat, INGV researchers simulated conditions for 2050, 2100, and 2150. The digital risk maps and flood models indicated that between 139 and 226 square kilometers of Venice and its lagoon could have been inundated in the most extreme scenario.
“The most extreme scenario suggests that the sea level could rise up to 3.47 meters in high-intensity peak events,” said Marco Anzidei and Cristiano Tolomei. In a related statement, “The purpose of the investigation is precisely to provide information on the next evolution of sea level rise in the Venice lagoon to understand how it may influence one of the most iconic cities in the world,” said Anzidei.
Major flood events in 1966 and 2019, when water levels reached 194 centimeters and 187 centimeters respectively, underscored Venice’s vulnerability. Landmarks such as St. Mark’s Square experienced periodic flooding, a worrying sign for a city built on more than 150 islands in the Adriatic Sea lagoon.
Situated in northeastern Italy as the capital of the Veneto region, Venice welcomed about 30 million tourists each year and served as a cornerstone of Italy’s cultural legacy. The potential submersion of the city threatened its historical and architectural treasures and raised economic and social concerns.
Experts urged local authorities and international bodies to rethink urban protection measures and adopt an integrated approach that combined physical infrastructure with sustainable environmental and urban policies. “We are at a point of no return if brave and urgent decisions are not made,” warned Tommaso Alberti and Daniele Trippanera, according to La Repubblica.
Financed under the PRIN - GAIA project and drawing on previous research from the European project SAVEMEDCOASTS2, the study mapped potential outcomes for the Venice Lagoon in the absence of further intervention. Researchers concluded that decisive actions at both the local and international levels were essential to avoid irreversible cultural, economic, and environmental losses.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.