A study published in the journal Nature Communications reveals that the global population, particularly in rural areas, may have been vastly underestimated for decades. According to The Independent, researchers from Aalto University in Finland compared the official number of people displaced by dam projects against five major population datasets, uncovering discrepancies in data gathered between 1975 and 2010.
The study warns of "inherent limitations" in national population censuses, especially in counting rural populations. The Independent reports that these limitations can lead to incompleteness in population data, adversely affecting resource allocation and planning for essential services in rural communities.
Researchers found that populations in rural areas were undercounted, with estimates indicating undercounting between 53 percent to 84 percent over the study period from 1975 to 2010. In the 2010 data, the study suggests that between 32 to 77 percent of the rural population was overlooked. This underrepresentation has profound implications, as it suggests that the actual global population could be much higher than the currently estimated 8.2 billion people.
"For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be missing from global population datasets," stated Dr. Josias Láng-Ritter, a co-author of the study from Aalto University, according to Science Alert. He emphasized these findings, noting that "these datasets have been used in thousands of studies and extensively support decision-making, yet their accuracy has not been systematically evaluated."
The researchers attribute the undercounting to the grid-based method typically used in population estimation. This method involves dividing the world into squares and estimating the population in each square based on census data. However, the approach tends to be calibrated more accurately for urban areas, leading to undetected inaccuracies in rural regions. Scattered hamlets and villages are often hardly or not at all recognizable on such grids, as highlighted by Die Welt.
The sparse and spread-out nature of rural populations, combined with challenging transportation connections and conflicts, makes accurate census counting difficult. Many countries lack the resources for precise digital data collection, contributing to discrepancies in population counts. In numerous places, censuses are still conducted by foot, going from house to house, which can result in people being left uncounted, especially in remote or conflict-affected areas.
The study examined population maps from 1975 to 2010 due to a lack of dam data from later years. The researchers used resettlement data from 307 dam projects across 35 countries to verify population counts. This relocation data is usually precise, as dam companies pay compensation to those affected, making this data typically accurate. By comparing the number of people relocated due to dam projects with the population datasets, the researchers revealed distortions in population data.
Notably, the undercounting appears to be systematic in certain countries. There are noticeable discrepancies in population data in countries like China, Brazil, Australia, Poland, and Colombia, where the undercounting of the rural population is particularly pronounced. For example, in Paraguay, it is possible that a quarter of the population was not counted in the 2012 census, as reported by n-tv.
The underrepresentation of rural populations in censuses has profound implications for resource allocation. "To provide rural communities with equal access to services and other resources, we need to have a critical discussion about the past and future applications of these population maps," commented Dr. Láng-Ritter, according to The Independent. He warned that the needs of rural residents could be underrepresented in decision-making globally, leading to insufficient healthcare, education, and infrastructure investments in these areas.
The researchers call for strengthened population censuses, alternative population counts, and a more balanced calibration of population models to rectify the inaccuracies identified in the study. They stress that without fundamental verification and improvement of data collection methods, rural populations may continue to be systematically disadvantaged in the allocation of resources and services.
This new evidence challenges previous assumptions about urbanization and population distribution. If current population statistics have indeed missed hundreds of millions, or even billions, of people, it would change our understanding of the world in many ways. The findings suggest that the challenges of human development are more difficult than previously thought, as more people may be living without adequate access to essential services.
The United Nations currently estimates the world's population at about 8.2 billion people, projected to peak at over 10 billion by the mid-2080s. However, the new study indicates that rural population figures worldwide could be vastly underestimated, potentially meaning that the actual global population is higher than these estimates.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.