A Soviet interplanetary spacecraft known as Kosmos 482, which weighs nearly 500 kilograms and was supposed to land on Venus in the 1970s, is expected to soon plunge uncontrolled back to Earth. Reentry is estimated to occur between May 8 and May 14, according to The Washington Post.
Experts are closely monitoring the spacecraft's descent. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts a narrower window of May 9–10 for the uncontrolled reentry of Kosmos 482. "While not without risk, we should not be too worried," said Langbroek in an email, according to Milenio.
The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft in 1972 as part of a series of missions to Venus. However, a rocket malfunction shortly after liftoff prevented Kosmos 482 from leaving Earth's orbit, resulting in it being stuck in a highly elliptical orbit for 53 years.
Most of Kosmos 482 crumbled away within less than a decade, with some pieces breaking down in low Earth orbit within 48 hours. Other pieces of the spacecraft are believed to have reentered Earth's atmosphere in the early 1980s. The landing capsule, a spherical object approximately one meter in diameter, has been orbiting Earth in a highly elliptical path, gradually descending in altitude.
"Experts doubt the parachute system of Kosmos 482 would work after so many years," reported El Financiero. Additionally, they believe the heat shield may also be compromised after such a long time in orbit. The spacecraft was originally built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide–thick atmosphere of Venus.
The potential reentry zone spans between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, posing risks to residential areas as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, and nearly as far south as Cape Horn in South America. Space debris–tracking experts say it is too early to know where the half-ton mass of metal might come down or how much of it will survive reentry.
Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics noted in an email that it would be preferable if the thermal shield failed, causing the spacecraft to burn up during its descent through the atmosphere. "But if the thermal shield holds, reentering intact, you'll have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky," McDowell said, according to El Financiero.
Despite the uncertainty, the chance of the spacecraft actually hitting someone or something is small. "It cannot be completely ruled out," experts told The Washington Post, but they emphasize that such an event is highly unlikely. Langbroek stated that the danger of being struck by lightning is greater than the risk of being hit by the probe. "Since most of the planet is water, chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean," he said, as reported by Milenio.
]Factors such as the object's trajectory, age, and solar activity in the coming days will affect the reentry timing. In a blog post, Langbroek wrote that these variables make predicting the exact time and location of reentry challenging.
David Williams, head of NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, told The Washington Post in an email: "It should be visible as a bright fireball when it reenters the atmosphere." He added that it is difficult to predict whether it will be recoverable, given that it "wasn't designed for a hard landing."
Kosmos 482 was a sister mission to the Venera 8 atmospheric probe that successfully landed on Venus in July 1972. While Venera 8 completed its mission, Kosmos 482 remained suspended around Earth due to the launch failure. The spacecraft's sturdy design, capable of withstanding high temperatures and extreme pressures, contributes to its durability and the global interest in its anticipated return to Earth.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.