Republican Mike Johnson, the untried speaker of the US House of Representatives, on Wednesday, vowed to push forward with a $14.3 billion bill to aid Israel, despite a warning from nonpartisan researchers that his plan to offset the cost would actually increase the federal deficit.
In his first real test as Congress's top Republican, the Louisiana lawmaker will also try to pass three 2024 spending bills this week, as he tries to unify his splintered House majority around a temporary funding measure to address a potential government shutdown deadline on Nov. 17.
Tensions between party hardliners and centrists, which led to the historic ouster of Johnson's predecessor Kevin McCarthy early this month, threaten to undermine the appropriations bills, which would fund the legislative branch; transportation, housing and urban development; and the Department of the Interior and the environment through Sept. 30.
Johnson hoped to showcase fiscal restraint as a Republican priority by paying for the Israeli aid bill with money Democrats allocated to the Internal Revenue Service, a favorite target for partisan Republican criticism.
But the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned that the loss of money to the IRS would reduce federal revenues by nearly $27 billion and add $12.5 billion to the federal deficit over the coming decade. The IRS says that cuts to its budget diminish its effectiveness in collecting taxes.
Johnson brushed aside the CBO report, telling reporters: "Only in Washington, when you cut spending, do they call it an increase in the deficit. We don't put much credence in what the CBO says about this."
A House vote on the Israel aid measure is expected on Thursday. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the bill will go nowhere in his Democratic-led chamber.
"It's dead before it even is voted on. The speaker should start over," said Schumer.
President Joe Biden has requested a $106 billion package that would include aid for Israel and Ukraine and funding to boost competition with China in the Indo-Pacific as well as security along the US border with Mexico.
'Litmus test'
The Israel aid and appropriations measures pose an early test of Johnson and his narrow 221-212 majority's ability to agree among themselves and to work with Democrats, who hold the Senate majority and the Oval Office.
"This will be a litmus test," said Representative Ryan Zinke, a Republican who sits on the House committee that sets spending priorities. "There's going to be some groaning and moaning, but I think they'll pass."
The US budget deficit soared to $1.7 trillion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, the highest outside the COVID-19 era. Rising interest rates, the high costs of the Social Security and Medicare programs and the lingering effects of a 2017 tax cut have pushed the nation's debt over $33 trillion.
Hardliners are pressing for spending cuts and policy wins, such as tighter border security, as part of any temporary funding measure known as a continuing resolution, or "CR," to avoid a partial government shutdown.
Former Speaker McCarthy was ousted by a small band of hardliners after agreeing to pass a CR with Democratic support. The intraparty brawl that followed has left many Republicans wary of picking another shutdown fight.
"We just wasted three weeks with whatever this last goat rodeo was," said Representative Kelly Armstrong of South Dakota. "It's very difficult for members in tough districts to go home and explain any reason for a shutdown right now."
That raises the likelihood of Johnson ultimately opting for a "clean" CR without conditions or spending cuts.
Johnson has floated the idea of a CR that would run into January or April and cut spending 1% across the board - including defense.
House Republicans have proposed spending a net $34.8 billion on Interior and the environment by reassigning another $25 billion in IRS money to Republican priorities. That would result in a 10% overall cut with a 39% reduction for the Environmental Protection Agency, according to a Republican fact sheet.
With a similar use of previously allocated money, House Republicans would spend a net $65.2 billion on transportation, housing and urban development, 25% below current levels.
The third bill, which funds congressional operations, could be in trouble because of opposition from Republicans who say a 4.6% cost of living adjustment for lawmakers - their first in 15 years - is unconstitutional.
But it is not clear whether any of the three spending bills can pass, with Republicans at odds over hardline demands for spending cuts and policy restrictions.
Even if they did pass, the spending bills, like the Israeli aide measure, have no chance of succeeding in the Senate or being signed into law by Biden.