The US could tap Russia as a mediator to assist it in working with Tehran on a new Iran deal, Bloomberg News said on Tuesday.
This report came as others said that Russia had sent officials to Iran during the 15-month war between Hamas and Israel. During that period, Iran launched two large salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel.
The reports about Russia potentially aiding in nuclear talks come a day after others said that Mohammad Javad Zarif, an Iranian diplomat who was a prominent figure in relation to previous nuclear negotiations, had resigned from his position and that Iran’s president was downplaying any discussions with the US.
Russia has been a key partner of Iran over the years. They worked together to back Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Tehran also provided Russia with drones.
On the other hand, this news comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration has had increasing difficulty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and looks ready to reexamine sending arms and military aid to Ukraine.
Could this be part of a grand bargain where the US reduces support for Ukraine and Russia gets Iran closer to a new deal? In the past, president Barack Obama’s administration also linked reconciliation with Russia to hopes for an Iran deal. At the time, Russia benefited and invaded Ukraine in 2014.
The Trump administration’s new position appears to be more than just looking at a potential Iranian deal. Its stance involves a shift in focus to China and adjusting its relations with Russia. The question is whether Russia will mostly benefit from this or whether the US will as well.
Russia has outplayed several US administrations, going back to former US president George W. Bush. It is plausible that Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he can outplay the Trump administration.
Does Iran want another deal?
But does Tehran even want to strike another deal? Iran’s supreme leader is a critic of trusting the US. The first Trump administration walked away from the deal that Obama had negotiated and put in place a maximum pressure policy instead.
The Iran hawks are not part of the new Trump administration. However, Iran is different today than it was in 2015. What does Iran gain through Russia-brokered talks? What might happen is that it could get something in return and basically put its nuclear program on hold as it did in 2015.
Tehran may not want to go all the way to get nuclear weapons. It may prefer to use them to wring concessions. For the Trump administration, any reduction in tensions with Russia and Iran could be a win because it won’t have to focus on the Middle East or Europe.
That would let them pivot. Notably, the first Trump administration ended up killing Iranian IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani after Iran-backed militias in Iraq attacked US troops. Negotiating with the Islamic Republic could reduce threats to the American troops.
It is also possible that Russia is floating this as a way to get more concessions in any Ukraine ceasefire. Moscow likely wants to wind down that war, and it is thinking about a grand bargain as well.