Russia could be tapped to work with the US and Iran to mediate some type of new Iran deal, according to a report at Bloomberg on March 4.
The report came amid suggestion that Russia had sent officials to Iran during the 15-month war between Hamas and Israel. Iran launched two large salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel during the war.
The reports about Russia potentially aiding in nuclear talks come a day after reports said Iran’s Javad Zarif had resigned from his position and Iran’s president was downplaying any kind of discussions with the US.
Russia has been a key partner of Iran over the years. They worked together to back the Assad regime and Iran provides Russia with drones.
On the other hand this news comes as the Trump administration has had increasing difficulty with the president of Ukraine and looks ready to suspect arms and military aid to Ukraine.
Could this be part of a grand bargain where the US reduces support for Ukraine and Russia gets Iran closer to a new deal? The Obama’s administration also linked reconciliation with Russia to hopes for an Iran deal. At the time Russia benefited and invaded Ukraine in 2014.
The new position of the Trump administration appears to be more than just looking at a potential Iran deal. It is about moving focus to China and getting Russia more on side on several issues. The question is whether Russia benefits mostly or whether the US will also benefit. Russia has outplayed several US administrations in the past going back to George W. Bush. It’s plausible that Russian President Vladimir thinks he can outplay the Trump administration.
Does Iran want another deal?
The question is whether Iran wants to do another deal. Iran’s supreme leader is critics of trusting the US. The first Trump administration walked away from the deal that Obama had negotiated and put in place maximum pressure. The Iran hawks are not part of the new Trump administration. However Iran is different today than in 2015. What does Iran gain through Russia-brokered talks? Iran could get something in return and basically put its nuclear program on hold as it did in 2015.
Iran may not want to go all the way to get nuclear weapons. It may prefer to use them to wring concessions. For the Trump admin any reduction in tensions with Russia and Iran could be a win because they won’t have to focus on the Middle East or Europe. That would let them pivot. It should be recalled that the first Trump administration ended up killing Iran IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani after US troops were attacked by Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran talks could reduce threats to US troops.
It’s also possible that Russia is floating this as a way to get more concessions in any kind of Ukraine ceasefire. Moscow likely wants to wind down that war and it thinks about a grand bargain as well.