With the High Court of Justice giving a green light to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to interview candidates to replace Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, even as he is protected from being fired by court order until at least April 8, it is important to review changes to the list of potential new chiefs.
Just 10 days ago, there was one list of candidates, and while three candidates remain on the short list, two have been taken off, and one wildcard new name has been added.
Three of the candidates may be interviewed by Netanyahu as early as Wednesday.
"M" the leading candidate?
“M” – the leading candidate remains the most recent deputy chief of the Shin Bet, known for now only as “M,” and may be interviewed on Wednesday.
M stepped down in late 2024, only to return in early February to assist with negotiations with Qatar to return the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. M is known as an “Arabist” and has served at all of the key levels of the Shin Bet.
Former senior Shin Bet official Arik Barbing and other former senior officials from the agency told The Jerusalem Post that he is fully qualified.
Netanyahu’s placing him onto the hostage negotiation team could show he also has the prime minister’s support.
If he wins the “race,” much of the current controversy may dissipate since he has support from both ends of the spectrum.
M almost resigned after October 7, given that he was deputy chief at the time, but after a preliminary review, his personal responsibility was found to be minimal and not any more serious than many other officials throughout the defense establishment.
He went on to run the Shin Bet’s massive interventions against Hamas during the war. If M becomes the next chief, he would become the second religious leader of the agency after Yoram Cohen 2011-2016.
"R," a former deputy chief, now identified
“R”’s name was still classified 10 days ago. Now his real name, Yair Sagi, can be published as well as his Shin Bet nickname “Rolly,” for which he is referred to as R.
Sagi, who may also be interviewed on Wednesday, was thought to be the next in line after M, having been deputy chief of the Shin Bet before Bar himself and having barely lost a close race to Bar to be chief back in 2021.
Recent reports indicate that he was viewed as less close to some of the other top defense officials at the time than Bar.
For example, top IDF officials served in Bar in special forces capacities, but not with Sagi. If that was a negative then, it could translate into a positive now if Netanyahu views Sagi as having a score to settle with the reigning defense establishment.
He also led the Jerusalem and West Bank Division.
Senior Shin Bet sources say that Sagi has a bigger world view when it comes to technology, collection, and analysis of intelligence issues.
Some Shin Bet sources emphasized that Sagi was involved in major defense situations during the 2014 Gaza war. Sagi has also held key positions in the Defense Ministry’s MAFAT weapons development area.
Further, Sagi returned to help the Shin Bet southern command during its massive operations during this war after October 7.
But Sagi may have burned some bridges with an interview that he gave to Channel 12’s Uvda following the 2014 Operation Protective Edge.
He claimed the agency had warned the IDF and Netanyahu that Hamas was ready to fight, but was ignored. This won him some enemies – including some who hold him responsible for failing to sound the alarm about Hamas loud enough in 2014.
In the post-October 7 atmosphere and with intensified tensions between the prime minister and the agency now, Netanyahu may be even less likely to take someone with a record of pointing the finger at the political echelon.
According to Barbing, what sets these two top candidates apart from any others is that they are both Arabists who can speak Arabic the way Arabs do and understand their mentality and culture in a deep way because they have “tasted” that culture up close in the field, not just studied it from afar.
Eyal Tzir Cohen; the 'dark-horse'
Eyal Tzir Cohen is the new dark-horse candidate in this race, so the least is still known about him.
He is not only new to the race, but would be the most unconventional choice as he has spent substantial time in the Mossad, and only part of his career in the Shin Bet.
His highest role in the defense establishment was as the head of a branch of the Mossad as part of the agency’s high command. He has operational experience and specific experience with Arab-related security issues.
Tzir Cohen has also served on the hostage negotiations team and was reportedly critical of the Biden administration of the negotiations generally for not placing Hamas on its heels.
If Netanyahu wanted to bring an outsider into the Shin Bet to potentially shake up the agency, but who still has very high-level credentials, Tzir Cohen could fit the bill.
Appointing Tzir Cohen would be ignoring the custom in recent decades of appointing one of the former deputy chiefs as the next chief, given that in the Shin Bet the deputy chief runs the organizations day to day operations.
But it would be hard to call him an unqualified political pick. Despite being added to the list, there are reportedly mixed feelings about Tzir Cohen, given that he has spent time at the left-center think tank INSS, which is often critical of Netanyahu.
Reportedly, Tzir Cohen is overseas, so his interview may be delayed.
Sources associated with the Mossad gave Tzir Cohen high praise.
Shalom Ben Hanan, former senior official
Shalom Ben Hanan retired from the agency in 2022 after 27 years at the equivalent rank of a major general in charge of two different whole divisions in comparison to IDF ranks.
Ben Hanan was also on the original list of candidates 10 days ago and may be interviewed on Wednesday. The two divisions he headed were Jerusalem and the West Bank and the Counterintelligence Division.
Ben Hanan has publicly criticized Bar for injecting the Shin Bet into certain political sagas, saying that the agency must stay razor-focused on security issues only.
These criticisms could find favor with Netanyahu. Simultaneously, Ben Hanan has been affiliated with Reichman University, which might give the prime minister hesitation because of its left-center politics but could boost broader support for him.
Still, he was not a deputy Shin Bet chief so he would be an unconventional choice, if not as unconventional as Sagi.
Candidates who are out:
“S” is the current Shin Bet deputy chief and was on the short list 10 days ago but has been removed from it.
S gets top marks from senior Shin Bet sources, but given that he has only been deputy chief for a period of months, and both M and R served full terms there, each of them would seem to have an edge over S at this time.
It is unknown whether this is why he has been taken out of the race, but if he serves well under the next chief for a period of years, he could be brought into the running when the office opens up again in approximately five years.
Meir Ben-Shabbat was on the short list 10 days ago and was always an outside shot, but he removed himself from the race for unknown reasons.
Currently, Ben-Shabbat heads the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, and he may not want to have to answer to Netanyahu again and be in the middle of the political fray.
Ben-Shabbat was Netanyahu’s former national security council chief 2017-2021 and a senior Shin Bet official.
Netanyahu wanted to make him the next chief after Nadav Argaman in 2021 but was forced from office by Naftali Bennett, who appointed Bar.
While Ben-Shabbat has some support within the Shin Bet because he was a senior official there, serving as a division head in three different capacities, there are also many in the agency who have threatened to resign if he is appointed, saying he is too close to Netanyahu.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.