In a recent interview by Kitco NEWS, insights were shared by Gary Wagner on the outlook for gold prices in 2025. Wagner believes that gold is still amid a correction, but the exciting part is that once the correction concludes, which he expects to happen in the first or second month of this year at the latest, gold prices will then take off again.
"If you recall, we did our last interview... first second week of December... we were fully immersed in a correction," Wagner stated, referring to the recent price decline. "I believe that we are in a correction although we are in the final stages of that correction... then we restart the clock in terms of our Elliot wave count and that means we will according to Elliot wave theory take out 2800 $100 minimum by the conclusion of what we're labeling as the next motive or impulse cycle."
Wagner outlined key technical levels to watch for to confirm the end of the correction and the beginning of the next rally. He emphasized the importance of observing how gold reacts to support levels around $2575 and $2600.
"The way that we want to look at it as a market technician we've got a series of highs... and then we have higher lows... what we want to do to confirm that the correction is over we want to look at these price points meaning 2575 2600 as major support," Wagner explained.
Dollar's Role and Potential Impact
Wagner also discussed the potential for the U.S. dollar index to climb to 113 before hitting major resistance.
"If you look at what happened in September of 2024 we started climbing in the same way that we climbed back in July of 2023... it went from 100 to recently 109 and that represents a 9% addition value when compared to the basket," Wagner noted. He pointed out that historically, a strong dollar can sometimes coincide with gold strength, a rare occurrence often linked to significant shifts in monetary policy.
Market Sentiment and Fundamental Drivers
Wagner addressed concerns about waning market sentiment for gold, emphasizing the continued presence of fundamental drivers.
"Are they still in the marketplace are they still causing the potential for uncertainty geopolitical I'm talking about the Middle East Russia and Ukraine those two conflicts have not been resolved the negative is that you saw strong Tailwinds for gold as the Federal Reserve began to cut rates," Wagner stated. He highlighted other factors such as political uncertainty and the potential for rising inflation as continued drivers for gold prices.
Silver's Outlook and Potential for Outperformance
Wagner noted that silver has been significantly outperforming gold so far this year, breaking above $30, a level not seen in a decade.
"I believe that silver has some room to the upside in terms of our Elliot wave count we believe that, unlike gold which is still amid a correction silver could have potentially completed the correction when it traded down $29 on the way down from $35," Wagner explained.
Federal Reserve Policy and Rate Cuts
Wagner acknowledged the recent strong U.S. jobs report, which could potentially slow the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
"The FED made a tremendous revision to their monetary policy where we were expecting what we call interest rate normalization... they began to cut rates pretty aggressively at first and then the big surprise at the December fomc meeting... that they're not in a hurry," Wagner stated. He emphasized that the pace of rate cuts will depend heavily on future economic data and the evolving inflation picture.
Gold Price Target and Potential for $3,000
Goldman Sachs recently revised its gold price forecast to $2,910 by the end of 2025. Wagner expressed a more bullish outlook, stating: "I don't believe so based on both the technical indicators that I am looking at as well as the fundamentals at play... I see gold not only taking out 2800 but my numbers have been about 2900 with the upper level possible being 3,000."
Wagner addressed the potential impact of new tariffs on precious metals, stating: "If in fact what we see is that he implements tariffs across the board that could create trade Wars as you said but huge inflationary pressures... If they have to add a such charge or a tariff as they import precious metals that would have a profound implications on what we could see in the price." He emphasized that tariffs could introduce significant volatility into the precious metals markets.
Gary Wagner's analysis provides valuable insights into the current gold market dynamics. While acknowledging the potential for short-term volatility, he remains bullish on gold's long-term prospects, driven by a combination of technical factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and the potential for inflationary pressures.
Watch the full interview:
Augusta Precious Metals(Full Review) $0 (10 Years) $50,000 "Best Overall" by Money Magazine, Award-Winning for 6 Years, Thousands of 5-Star Rankings Goldco (Full Review) Vary $25,000 Industry leader with over $2 Billion in gold and silver. Top rated precious metals company with buy back guarantee American Hartford Gold (Full Review) Vary $10,000 American Hartford Gold, ranked #1 Gold Company on Inc. 5000, boasts thousands of A+ BBB ratings and 5-star reviews, endorsed by Bill O'Reilly and Rick Harrison..Don't miss out on the opportunity to invest in Gold & Silver. Check out our featured companies today: (Ad)
Expand Details
Renowned for its exceptional customer service and commitment to transparency, Augusta Precious Metals has garnered numerous accolades, including "Best Overall" from Money magazine and "Most Transparent" from Investopedia. The company's dedication to educating and supporting its clients has earned it top ratings from organizations such as A+ from BBB and AAA from BCA.Expand Details
From precious metals iras to direct purchases of gold and silver, goldco have helped thousands of americans place over $2 billion in gold and silver. Top-rated precious metals company rated A+ by the better business bureau rated triple a by business consumer alliance earned over 6,000+ 5-star customer ratings Money.Com 2024 best customer service 2024 inc. 5000 regionals: pacific ranked #17 2024 gold stevie award, fastest growing company inc. 5000 award recipient, 8+ yearsExpand Details
With over $2 billion in precious metals sold, American Hartford Gold helps individuals and families diversify and protect their wealth. Their expert team provides investors with the latest market insights and a historical perspective, ensuring informed decisions. Trusted by public figures and praised for exceptional customer service, the company offers competitive pricing on top-tier gold and silver coins, backed by a 100% customer satisfaction guarantee
