Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appears to have been pressured by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to not engage in a new round of talks with the US. This could have ramifications because the Trump administration has been slowly increasing sanctions as part of a return to its “maximum pressure” campaign.
It appears that the Trump administration was open to talks with Iran, however, and Pezeshkian also seemed willing to have discussions. What happened?
Iran’s “president acknowledges he shifted position on negotiating with the US to match [the Supreme Leader’s] stance,” Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran’s official news agency, reported.
Pezeshkian said that “while he remains an advocate of dialogue, he will firmly adhere to the position set by the leader regarding negotiations,” the report said.
Khamenei and those around him likely believe Iran was suckered into fruitless talks in 2015, because the first Trump administration walked away from the deal in 2017.
“I believed that it would be better to engage in dialogue, but the Leader of the Revolution stated that we will not negotiate with the United States, and I also declared that we will not negotiate with the United States,” IRNA quoted Pezeshkian said as saying at an open session of Parliament on Sunday. “However, we must find appropriate ways to resolve problems.”
“I may hold a belief, but when the Leader of the Revolution determines a direction, we must adjust ourselves accordingly and find the right path within that framework,” he added.
Even though Pezeshkian said he supports dialogue, he also wants it from a position of strength.
“They [the US negotiators] are not after negotiations… They want us to be submissive to them,” Pezeshkian said. “But we won’t be made submissive.”
Iran may now redirect its focus elsewhere
This is important because it means that Tehran might shift its focus elsewhere. Iran is not in the same position today as it was in 2015. In 2015, it was involved in backing militias in Iraq to fight ISIS, and the Iranian-backed Syrian regime was on the ropes.
At the time, Iran sent Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani to Moscow to get Russia to intervene in Syria. Iran was in need of relief from some pressure at the time. It had just gotten increasingly involved in Yemen by backing the Houthis in 2015.
Today, Iran is in a different position. It is much stronger in Iraq and Yemen, and it also helped engineer the October 7 massacre and ensuing war. It also has much closer ties to Russia and China and has joined non-Western economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
However, Tehran has also had setbacks. The Assad regime in Syria has fallen. Hezbollah is weaker. Therefore, Iran is in a very different situation. It wants to increase its work with non-Western economic powers, but it is not sure if its proxy war strategy of investing in Lebanon and other places has panned out.
Khamenei wants to slow things down and not rush into new talks. Pezeshkian likely prefers more diplomacy. This is the source of the current tensions in Tehran.