Iran's calculations ahead of a possible new deal with the United States may factor in the shifting views of the Arab states.
This is important to consider. Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, flew to Iran and held talks with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran on Thursday, April 17.
Saudi Arabia is one of the countries that opposed the 2015 Iran deal. However, Riyadh has now reconciled with Iran over the last two years in a process backed by China and Iraq. Riyadh is a leader of several key countries in the region, and its stance is influential.
Hossein Jaberi Ansari, the CEO of IRNA, recently gave an interview that was printed in his news organization, regarding how the Arab states may play into a new Iran deal.
Ansari is not only a key figure in Iranian state media. He is also a former diplomat at the Iranian Foreign Ministry. It's worth recalling that back in 2015, Ansari, who was then a spokesman for the foreign ministry in Tehran, spoke out against the "pressure from the Zionist lobby" on the US. This is his worldview.
Ansari's thoughts on the deal
What does Ansari think today about the chances for a deal? He seems slightly optimistic. One reason for this is that he assesses that the Arab states have chosen a different approach than in 2015.
Looking back at the 2015 deal he said, "the result was that the Arab countries, or more precisely what I call the official Arab system, aligned themselves with Israel, directly or indirectly, acting like two blades of scissors in dealing with the JCPOA." He blames these countries, which he didn't name, for trying to use their influence, "lobbying and wealth" to prevent the deal.
IRNA noted that "Hossein Jaberi Ansari explained to IRNA 24 Program how Iran and its Arab countries are dealing with Tehran-Washington indirect negotiations and a possible new deal in a way different from the 2015 Iran agreement." Now he sees the same Arab states as being more "forward-moving" in their approach.
Oman positive on talks
We know that Oman has been very positive on the talks. Oman is mediating the talks and has hosted one round in Oman and one in Rome. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries appear more flexible as well.
He contrasted the approach with 2018, when he also said that Arab countries worked to undermine the 2015 deal.
The article about his comments stated that "their attempt [was] facilitated during the first term of US. President Donald Trump, who withdrew Washington from the JCPOA in 2018."
Now he said that "it seems that Iran this time is more seriously engaged in elaborating on its policies and the realities as Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, his deputies and colleagues, as well as Iranian ambassadors to regional countries are making close contacts to convey developments to leaders and officials of the Arab countries in order to prevent a reserved image from being shaped for them, Jaberi Ansari said," IRNA noted, paraphrasing his comments.
The report noted that "Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries are also learning from the experience of the past few years that if developments move toward conflict, and soft confrontations turn into hard ones, Iran and the other side to the conflict would not be the only ones to suffer, and the entire region would definitely be harmed, he added."