About half of the Israelis who are eligible to register for the "discounted apartment" raffle have already registered for it, and with the accumulation of data, it is already possible to estimate in which cities registrants have a high chance of winning the apartment and where they will need a lot of luck.
52,673 have already registered for the raffle out of about 110,000 eligible people who might win significant discounts on apartment prices.
Given the fact that the number of registrants may still double, the chances of winning, accordingly, may be half as low as they are now. What can slightly encourage the participants is the fact that the raffle works so that whoever wins one in a particular region is automatically deleted from other regions.
Where in the center can you hope for a win that will secure your future?
As expected, in the central cities the chances of winning an apartment are the lowest. In Tel Aviv, of course, there is tough competition for a low number of apartments, and the chance of being one of the lucky ones to win an apartment in the city as of this morning is only 1.9%, with more than 8,500 already registered for the raffle for 163 apartments.
The three most sought-after cities so far are also in the center. In Beer Ya'akov, 16,027 people have already registered for the raffle, which will include 512 apartments, so the chance of winning an apartment is 3.2%.
In Rishon Lezion, 15,766 are competing for 409 apartments, so the chance is 2.6% and in Or Yehuda the chance is even lower, after 15,497 people are already competing for 322 apartments, leaving a 2.1% chance of winning.
If you want to slightly increase the chances, you can sign up for the raffle in Bnei Brak, where the chance are about 7.2%, with a total of 289 apartments being drawn.
A relatively safer option, while still being close to the center, could be Lod, where the chance is currently no less than 40%, and even if it drops significantly as the number of registrants increases, it seems that the chances of winning an apartment are particularly high.
A reasonable chance of winning an apartment in the capital
In Jerusalem, where the price per apartment is the most expensive of all the raffles (yes, even in relation to Tel Aviv) and in some apartments reaches more than 18,000 shekels per meter, one may have a better chance of winning an apartment.
There is a chance of 8.8% to win one of the 468 apartments, for which only about 5,318 people have registered. In nearby Ma'ale Adumim, on the other hand, one should be particularly lucky with a 1.7% chance of winning one of the 18 apartments being raffled off.
Is it worth signing up for a raffle in the south?
The chance of winning an apartment in the south is of course higher than in the center, but even there it is not worth developing too many expectations. In Beersheba, as of this morning, about 3,400 Israelis are competing for 247 apartments, leaving everyone with about 7.2% to win.
In Ashkelon, your chance is currently 4.7%, given the low number of 297 apartments, while in Ashdod the chances are already significantly higher, with 9,058 people registered for the raffle of 860 apartments, which leaves a chance of 9.5%.
If you try to buy an apartment south of there, you can significantly increase your chances. In Dimona, for example, the supply is far greater than the demand so far, with about 400 Israelis competing for 733 apartments.
Even if the number of registrants will rise, it seems to be a fairly safe card. Ofakim also has a good chance so far - 15.7%, and Eilat - 13.7%.
In Netivot in particular, the chance of winning an apartment is very low - 1.8%, given the fact that there are only 43 apartments in the raffle in the city. In Sderot, the situation is similar, where 1,231 registrants have a 2.7% chance of winning one of the 34 apartments.
Variety of apartments in the north
While you could have reasonable expectations in some cities in the north, Haifa isn't one of them, where 1,866 Israelis have already registered for the competition for only 25 apartments, which leaves them with a 1.3% chance - the lowest in the country as of this morning.
In Kiryat Tivon there is a 5% chance, in Or Akiva double that, in Afula 7.3% and in Tirat Carmel 7.7%.
North of there, the chances of winning are quite reasonable, with 12% in Nahariya and 13% in Kiryat Shmona. Karmiel is in demand in relation to the area, with 440 registrants, each with a 5% chance of winning one of the 24 apartments.
If it is important for you to improve the chances at the expense of location, you can register for the raffle in Acre, where there are more apartments than registered couples- 1,035 apartments compared to only 906 registered, so even if the number increases significantly by the end of registration, the chances of winning are very high.
There are also very good chances of winning in Tiberias, where 815 were registered for 444 apartments, which leaves everyone with a chance of 54%, in Beit She'an - 58% and in Rechasim - 36%.
In Nazareth, registrants have a 16% chance of winning, and in Trean, where 36 residents registered for lotteries for 16 apartments, there is currently a 50% chance. In the locality of Bat Hefer in the Hefer Valley, where apartments can be found at a price of between NIS 6,733 per meter and NIS 8,033 per meter, the chance is 11.2%.