Iran will likely enrich a small amount of uranium to the nuclear weaponized level of 90% to test the West’s will at some point over the next six months, while not actually moving to develop a nuclear weapon, opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) said Thursday.
At a briefing of Israeli national security reporters, he said the Islamic Republic’s strategy at this point is to continue to escalate the threat it poses in a very incremental way so as to avoid any major blowback.
Lapid also revealed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had told him during their recent meeting that he would not meet with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have made statements regarding the Palestinians, Arabs and other issues that led to a variety of signals from Washington about contact with them, but Lapid’s confirmation from Blinken was more explicit.
Lapid said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would eventually publicly “go after the ‘Left’ [meant sarcastically] of the IDF and Shin Bet [Israel Security Agency] chiefs” and that he “will quickly blame [Defense Minister Yoav] Gallant” for any politically sensitive issue where Netanyahu may be attacked by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir for not being right-wing enough. “He will drop it on Gallant... like he has done to all of his defense ministers…and [Shin Bet Director] Ronen Bar is not a small target.”
“We are in danger because he [Netanyahu] does not want to have a liberal democracy; he wants a different kind,” he said.
Lapid spoke about his time as prime minister
One accomplishment Lapid repeatedly trumpeted was the natural-gas deal closed with Lebanon.
“For 11 years, it just sat there, and it was very complex diplomatically and also in terms of security,” he said. Moreover, the deal “stopped a third war with Lebanon” and “weakened Hezbollah… and I am still waiting for Netanyahu to cancel it.”
Lapid reiterated that “we built a much more prepared apparatus” for having the capability “to make sure if we go to war with Iran, we would be ready for all the scenarios and different aspects.”
He was skeptical of any calls to actively try to topple the regime from the outside during the current Iranian domestic protests, saying it was unclear whether the US could do this. Israel could be a secondary player at best, he said, and it needs to be careful not to play into the conspiracy theories of the regime, which has tried to paint internal dissent as being manipulated by the CIA or the Mossad.
Regarding Gaza, one centerpiece of Lapid’s strategy was, and remains, “economic stability for security,” as well as “differentiating and dividing between the different terrorist organizations.”
In addition, he said his government had responded quickly and effectively to Gaza anytime there was an attack and expressed concern that the Netanyahu government might not succeed in maintaining that momentum.
Lapid said part of the stability his government had provided also came from the walloping he said the IDF gave the terrorist groups in Gaza in August 2022 when he was prime minister. His government had increased civil pressure on terrorist groups, he added.
Asked if he would have promoted the artificial island off the Gaza Strip coast, which has been promoted by many ex-defense officials, as well as Likud minister Israel Katz in 2017, he said, “Yes.” Pressed for more details about a timeline, he acknowledged that it would have taken a number of years to negotiate and play out.
Honing in on the West Bank, Lapid said Netanyahu’s bad relations with the Palestinian Authority and having provocateurs such as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir could lead to more violence.
At the same time, he acknowledged that his government had no magical solution to reaching a deal with the PA, adding that if he had a future government with coalition partners who were easier to deal with, there could be hope.
Finally, Lapid warned that with Netanyahu’s unpopularity in the West and many controversial policies, the ongoing UN referral to the International Court of Justice against Israel would likely end with new levels of sanctions against Israel in the coming years.