Israel experienced one of its most challenging hours in history last Saturday, undoubtedly more challenging than the founding of the state. This is a time for unity and mutual strengthening; the time for soul-searching will come after the war. We shouldn't prevent quick lessons from being drawn without assigning blame at this stage, to improve the conduct of the war and restore the people's trust. The Unity Government was formed by the will of the people, and those politicians who understood the gravity of the situation came together under their leadership.
As I have written before, I have no doubt that Hamas's barbaric attack on Israeli civilians is part of Iran's aspiration to destroy Israel, initially by drawing it into a multi-front conflict through its proxies in the north, south, and the Gaza Strip, while simultaneously reducing pressure on its nuclear program. Hamas executed its unjustifiable attack using advanced military means, some of which come from Iran, funded with Iranian money, and relying on Iranian knowledge, planning, and training, with support from Hezbollah and others.
Some have compared the power outage during Shabbat to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, but that's a mistake. There was a significant power outage during Yom Kippur, but the attack was primarily against soldiers. The war crimes committed by Hamas are comparable to Pearl Harbor (in terms of surprise), 9/11 (in terms of surprise and civilian casualties), and Nazi war crimes (in terms of brutality against the elderly, women, and children). Therefore, just as the United States pursued Japan for Pearl Harbor, just as it declared bin Laden and al-Qaeda as enemies of the state, no matter where they were hiding or how long it took, just as Israel pursued the Munich terrorists as enemies of the state without a time limit, Israel will act against Hamas, its leaders, and all those involved in the campaign of terror, no matter how long it takes. The database of the criminals is being built now.
Hamas leaders, Dahlan, Nayef, Sinwar, al-Arouri, Mashal, and others are not immune from harm to their heads and property, even if they are in Beirut, Doha, Istanbul, or hiding in any other hole in the world. It was very important to express this message to all corners of the globe. After them, those who encouraged them to commit these heinous war crimes will be pursued vigorously.
The central question is what the next steps in Gaza (including the issue of prisoners) should be, what will happen in the north, and what Iran and the United States, our great friend, will do?
I have always argued regarding Gaza, both as the former head of the NSC in practice and as someone who writes on the subject in the context of my role at FDD, that the approach should be: "The end of an action in thought should be at the beginning." This was correct then, but it is no longer correct now. The solution in Gaza, after we complete what is required there, is very important, but it must not serve as a barrier to achieving the mission after Hamas terrorists have changed all the rules of the game.
The war goal
In order to achieve the full goals of the war defined by the cabinet, the IDF will need to enter Gaza with all the dangers and difficulties, especially since the world will not allow Israel to do what the United States and the international coalition did in Iraq at the time, and more recently in Mosul and Raqqa. A prolonged and complete siege (months) that includes a lack of electricity, water, food, and medicine in Gaza, with millions of citizens, will not be possible in the long term, both because of the growing international pressure and because of the prisoners. The directive to the population to move to the southern strip and pressure on Egypt to allow those who wish to do so to cross into Egypt will be part of the ground entry solution.
During the entry, the IDF will not wear gloves, both to achieve the elimination of Hamas and the total degradation of its capabilities, especially if we receive intelligence that the massacre in the south was planned in advance by an Iranian leader to draw Israel into Gaza and then activate Hezbollah and to make it difficult to manage another front in the north simultaneously. The cabinet, in consultation with the military echelon, will need to consider options and make the right decision based on the intelligence available. Apparently, the surprise that Israel could have carried out in the north a few weeks and months ago no longer exists; both sides are prepared and tense.
The significant arrival of American forces in the region and Biden's unprecedented speech were intended to send a deterrent message, primarily to Iran and through it to Hezbollah, but also directly to Nasrallah and Assad, not to interfere.
The IDF can deal with more than one front in the south, especially if the United States takes responsibility for dealing with Iran, whether directly or by directly instructing Nasrallah to intervene. On the other hand, a comprehensive ground entry into Gaza, without the evacuation of civilians in bulk, will make it difficult for them to continue to remain positive or at least not negative, alongside Egypt and Jordan.
We are not in a Gaza cycle; we are in an ALL-OUT war, and that is how we win without restraints. With a very strong Israel and now with a unity government, the diplomatic front has also strengthened. We have a very strong army that has completely failed in its mission last Saturday, as the Chief of Staff honestly declared, and it is determined to do everything to make amends for the failure, to deal with Hamas and Gaza once and for all, to return the captives safe and sound to their families, to restore the deterrence against our enemies encircling us, and above all, to restore the people's trust. Let the IDF win; it won't be short or easy, but we have no other choice.
Brigadier General (Res.) Professor Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at FDD and a visiting professor at the Technion Aerospace Engineering Faculty. He was a career Israeli civil servant official serving in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Defense Ministry and Prime Minister’s office for more than 40 years.