Hamas broke the truce to attack Israel on Friday morning. The Islamist terror organization used the pause in fighting to see how far it could push Israel in delaying hostage transfers and also turn them into a media event.
It purposely paraded hostages for the cameras and used this to bolster its image. Hamas was trying to show that, despite fifty days of war after its attack on October 7, it was intact.
The genocidal terrorist group has lost many fighters, but it is still able to control large swaths of the Gaza Strip.
It has more than fourteen battalions that have not been engaged in heavy fighting. It has lost key mid-level commanders, but its leadership is mostly intact. As such, it showed during the pause in fighting that it could emerge above ground as if it was conducting business as usual. It paraded the hostages with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another terrorist group.
So this was all about imaging for Hamas.
Now that fighting has resumed, Israel will need to search for a strategy. It has the tactics already. It has several IDF divisions, including heavy armored units, in Gaza; it has the forces and the firepower. However, the critique in the international community has been growing. There is a sense that Israel cannot wage this war for a long time. Israeli leaders have said the war will continue for a while - which means that Israel’s stated aims and claims may be contrary to the international community’s expectations.
As such, Israel President Isaac Herzog went to the UAE to meet foreign leaders. He was there as part of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP).
His presence is important. The Emirates is an Abraham Accords country and a very important friend of Israel. The current war in Gaza has been a challenge for the Jewish state in the region. However, other regional countries do not want to see Hamas come out of this with increased influence in the West Bank.
The Palestinian Authority has not done itself any favors; its aging leadership embodied by Mahmoud Abbas has not seized the day to make itself more relevant. This is a problem and a challenge. Another challenge is that Israeli leaders themselves don’t seem to know what the best strategy is.
Finding a strategy
Now, after the pause, there is a chance to try to come up with a strategy, not just tactical goals.
The state's goals are to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. Herzog’s office said that his trip to the UAE was in part to press to secure the release of all the hostages held by Hamas. He also wanted to raise awareness about the Hamas atrocities on October 7. He was seeking to “emphasize the fundamental security threat faced by Israel, and the country's duty to undertake military action to defend its people,” his office said. He met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. He also met with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi as well as the Emir of Qatar.
In Gaza, the fighting continues. Israel struck 200 targets on December 1. This comes after it had struck more than 15,000 targets in the first 50 days of fighting. Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant flew in on a helicopter on Friday and spoke with members of a reserve paratrooper unit in Beit Hanoun, his office said.
Israel will now face rocket fire from Gaza and threats from Hezbollah in the North, as well as threats from other Iranian-backed groups.
Iran’s Fars News said the country will unveil new naval capabilities over the weekend. This comes after drone threats to US warships this week as well as the Iran-backed Houthis threatening shipping in the Red Sea.
Pro-Iranian media on Friday highlighted threats to Israel. While this is normal for the media, it is clear Iran is also searching for a strategy. It hasn’t obtained its goals in the last month and a half. Iran has sought to unify various proxies against Israel. However the proxies have not been able to accomplish as much as Tehran may have wanted. The Islamic Republic will face a new challenge in trying decide how to operationalize the proxies.
Israel will need to find a strategy at the same time - while the international community will seek to resume the "pause" in fighting.