Just days after the US bolstered Israeli air defense by deploying a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and 100 soldiers, Israel on Saturday carried out a large retaliatory strike on Iran. An estimated 100 Israeli aircraft participated in the hourslong operation over Iran's night skies.
The Israeli military stated that it had "conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran—thwarting immediate threats." Military sites in Tehran, in the heart of Iranian territory, were among those struck.
"This was a game changer, a transition from the shadow war to a new level of the game which is now out in the open," Sharona Shir Zablodovsky, an expert on public policy and national security at the Dvorah Forum, told The Media Line. "Israel demonstrated the ability to attack several sites simultaneously, showing it has precise intelligence."
Israel's military said the strike targeted missile manufacturing facilities used by Iran in attacks over the past year. Iranian surface-to-air missiles and "aerial capabilities that were intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran" were also targeted.
"Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran," the statement continued.
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies' Iran Program, said the THAAD deployment signaled US trust that Israel would not act against American interests. "This was a meaningful strategic and operative move that was a message to both Iran and Israel," Citrinowicz told The Media Line. "It was a fruitful American effort to coerce Israel into operating only against military targets but also sent a message to Iran that the US will back Israel, especially in defending it."
Shift in regional dynamics and deterrence
He described the strike as "a historical event that completely changed the relationship between Iran and Israel."
"The attack reflected an Israeli will to balance the deterrence equation vis-à-vis Iran, signaling that massive rocket fire toward Israel cannot go unanswered, but without leading to a wider escalation, while also taking into consideration the will of the American administration to not escalate before the US elections," he said.
For more than a year, Israel has been entangled in a multifront war with Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and other areas. This year marked the first time Iran and Israel exchanged direct blows after years of engaging in a shadow war.
Prior to Saturday, the latest direct attack occurred last month when Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel, most of which were intercepted before reaching their targets. Last weekend, a drone launched by Hezbollah, Iran's Lebanese proxy, targeted the private residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That incident escalated Israel's threats of retaliation against Iran, which materialized over the weekend.
"Israel had to respond to an attack by a country which shares no border with Israel and threatens its existence," Shir Zablodovsky said. "The defense echelon is well aware of Iran's ability to take a major toll on Israel."
Now, the region once again awaits Iran's decision on whether to respond in what has become an increasingly violent tit-for-tat.
On Sunday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei posted on the X social media platform that the damage from the Israeli strike "should neither be exaggerated nor minimized." His post did not make clear whether Iran intends to retaliate.
Shir Zablodovsky said that Khamenei would not give up easily on his "40-year-old project to destroy Israel."
The full extent of the Israeli strike and the damage exacted remains unclear. Media reports quoting unnamed Israeli, American, and Iranian officials indicate that Iran's ability to manufacture long-range ballistic missiles and drones has been crippled. Other reports allege that Iranian air defense capabilities have been significantly hit. Online satellite imagery shows apparent damage to a suspected nuclear site in Parchin and a missile production facility in Khojir.
Israel's yearlong war began after Hamas, the armed group ruling the Gaza Strip, carried out a surprise offensive on Israel's southern border. The conflict soon expanded, with Hezbollah in Lebanon firing rockets and drones toward northern Israel.
The northern front mostly simmered below the surface until this summer, when Israel pivoted the main focus of the war to Lebanon. After numerous attacks on Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the terror organization is scrambling to recuperate with the help of Iran.
For decades, Iran has funded and armed Hezbollah as a cornerstone of its regional strategy. With Iran and Israel more than 1,000 miles apart, the presence of Hezbollah on Israel's border helped Iran deter Israel from an attack. That strategy of deterrence now seems to have failed.
"The Iranians underestimated how much the weakening of Hezbollah gives Israel freedom to attack on Iranian soil," Citrinowicz said.
Israel is believed to have previously contemplated a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear program, but such an attack has not been carried out, perhaps due to numerous logistical challenges. These include the large distance between the two countries, the need for Israeli jets to fly over and refuel in enemy territory, and the requirement for sophisticated, heavy bombs capable of penetrating underground nuclear targets.
Additionally, Israel was deterred by concerns that Hezbollah, one of the world's strongest terrorist organizations, would unleash its capabilities on Israel at Tehran's behest.
So far, Hezbollah attacks have not devastated Israel as security experts had feared. However, the group has not been a paper tiger, continuing to fire dozens of rockets and drones at Israel daily. Over the weekend, two Israeli citizens were killed by a rocket fired at an Arab-Israeli village near the border. On Sunday morning, a Hezbollah drone hit an aviation plant in northern Israel. Hours later, Hezbollah fired over 75 projectiles in a single barrage toward the same area, signaling it was still ready to fight.
"Hezbollah should not be eulogized just yet," Shir Zablodovsky said. "They still have military power, which they prefer to use incrementally by exhausting Israel and its society."
Iran may still call on Hezbollah to strike back at Israel if the Islamic Republic chooses to respond to Saturday's attack through a proxy.
Before settling on the military sites targeted in this strike, Israel is believed to have considered targeting Iranian nuclear sites or oil production facilities. Netanyahu was under significant American pressure to scale down the operation to avoid causing a major escalation just days before the US presidential election.
"There is no doubt that the election had a direct effect on Israel's decision," Shir Zablodovsky said. "It did not strike where it wanted to strike. Israel would have wanted to target major infrastructure but did not. Had it targeted Iran's oil depots, prices would have skyrocketed, and this would have had an effect on the vote in the US, as the economy is the main issue Americans vote on."
In Israel, the strike is being portrayed as a success with potentially widespread implications for the direction of the war.
"If in the past, there was a low probability that Israel would attack nuclear facilities without American backing, this has now changed," Citrinowicz said. "Looking into the future, with Hezbollah now weakened and Israelis' ability to operate freely in Iranian airspace, as Iran progresses with its nuclear program, this option can no longer be ruled out. Israel broke its fear barrier with this attack."
Shir Zablodovsky described the ongoing conflict as "a chess game, not a short war."
"The difficulty in this game is that there are many players with significant military power," she said. "This is a historical era which will redesign the Middle East."