Hezbollah was prepared for an invasion and as the ceasefire with Israel nears its end, the Lebanese terrorist group is already calling for its members to come back to south Lebanon, Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, told Tamar Uriel-Beeri at The Jerusalem Post's Israel's North: Looking Forward conference.
"It was very clear that Hezbollah was prepared for an invasion," Zehavi said.
"During the IDF offensive, [Hezbollah] launched between 100 to 200 rockets every day to Israel's North. The IDF, in the very few kilometers where they maneuvered in south Lebanon, pulled out tons of munitions that were prepared for the Hezbollah invasion of Israel."
The ceasefire managed to end the fighting, but while most of the IDF troops have already left Lebanon, some have stayed behind trying to prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon, causing friction.
"This is a well-planned provocation of Hezbollah to call its people to come back to the towns and villages of south Lebanon," Zehavi noted.
An unbalanced agreement
As Zehavi noted, the deal was that "within 60 days, the IDF will withdraw from Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces will commence its implementation of disarming Hezbollah within those areas. This means there is no deadline for the disarmament of Hezbollah in south Lebanon. There is only a deadline for the IDF withdrawal from south Lebanon. This is not a balanced agreement."
However, it is possible to bring change in Lebanon. Currently, Zehavi noted, Lebanon has a new prime minister who needs to form a government.
"The government cannot include Hezbollah anymore," she said. "This is something that is a thorough term and condition to bring change in Lebanon."
The next step would be to find a way to stop the flow of money to Hezbollah, something Zehavi thinks is possible.
"The banks of Hezbollah are still active and illegal in Lebanon. This must be stopped," she said.
Lastly is finding a way to stop the Iranian involvement in Lebanon.
"We must make sure there is no Iranian involvement in Lebanon, and that the Iranians are not sending money or military assistance," she said.
Furthermore, the new leadership in both Lebanon and in the US has made a stronger opening to create change.
"We can improve the terms and put pressure on Lebanon to implement the agreement," she said. "We can do it. We can do something better."
However, Zehavi warned, none of this will actually get rid of Hezbollah, and this wasn't one of the goals of the IDF offensive.
"Hezbollah will not disappear completely," she said.
All Israel can do, Zehavi explained, is to create red lines to discourage Hezbollah from crossing them, enabling a return of calm and quiet to Israel's North.
Fortunately, while Hezbollah hasn't disappeared, their capabilities to conduct major operations in the North have been diminished, though they still have rockets and can fire around 100 rockets a day at the North. Since the capabilities have been diminished though, she stressed it was important for the residents to come back home to the North.
"What Hezbollah wanted to show... is that the residents of south Lebanon are coming back. They are resilient," Zehavi said. "We are also very resilient. We need to show to the Lebanese that we are coming back, that we are not giving up on the North."