Ripples from US President Donald Trump’s bombshell announcement of plans for the US to take over Gaza after 1.8 million of its residents are relocated will extend far and wide.The ripples will be felt at the UN and Europe, where diplomats will have to get accustomed to the notion that the two-state solution is no longer the only viable option for resolving the Israel-Arab conflict.They will be felt throughout the Arab world, where leaders opposed to the plan will have to balance their objections with maintaining a good relationship with the US president.
And they will be felt in Israel, where the plan could ultimately lead to a more watered-down haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft bill than would have been the case had Trump not unveiled his plan.On the surface, there seems to be no connection. Why should a plan to relocate Gazan refugees impact the haredi draft bill?
Because with the plan, Trump has proven himself as the right wing’s answer to their prayers. Not only has he mainstreamed an idea that, up until now, was confined to the far Right, but he has also announced that within a month, his administration will clarify its position on whether to allow Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, an idea first outlined in the “Deal of the Century” unveiled in January 2020. Will the ideological Right want to risk that by voting against a haredi conscription bill that the haredi parties desire, thereby perhaps leading them to bring down the government?
Trump's actions for Israel in his first month in office
Beyond meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the first foreign leader since his inauguration on January 20, here are the steps Trump has already taken when it comes to Israel, beginning with the most recent:
- Halted foreign aid to South Africa, with one of the reasons being because of its “aggressive position” toward Israel, including “accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide in the International Court of Justice, and reinvigorating its relations with Iran to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements.”
- Moved forward with an $8 billion sale of weapons to Israel.
- Imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court for its “illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel,” including “issuing baseless arrest warrants” targeting Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant.
- Advocated relocating Gazan residents so that the coastal strip can be reconstructed and then come under US control.
- Released bomb shipments frozen by the Biden administration.
- Withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council.
- Ordered a review of membership in UNESCO with an eye out for “any antisemitism or anti-Israel sentiment” within the organization.
- Ended US funding of UNRWA.
- Signed a memorandum restoring maximum economic pressure on Iran.
- Issued an executive order to revoke student visas and deport foreign nationals who are Hamas sympathizers on college campuses.
- Re-designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization.
All of this, combined with Trump’s record from his first term – pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and brokering the Abraham Accords – led Netanyahu to declare in a Fox News interview Saturday, at the end of his US trip, that Trump is “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.”All that considered, no right-wing party or Likud MK will want to take any action that risks bringing down a right-wing government while such a supportive president is in office.Whether or not Trump’s plan leads to a redrawing of the Mideast map is unclear, but what is clear is that his announcement on Gaza – and all the other steps he has taken – presents a historic opportunity for a right-wing government to pursue its ideological agenda. No one on the Right will want to be accused of torpedoing this moment.In addition, Trump is making these moves at the very start of his four-year term, in stark contrast to the “Deal of the Century,” which he unveiled as he entered the final year of his first term. This means there are now four years to work with a president who supports relocating Gazans, has raised the possibility of Israel extending sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, and refuses to pledge allegiance to the notion of a two-state solution.It is no coincidence that Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir sounded contrite in interviews last week about leaving the government and expressed interest in rejoining. Nor is it a coincidence that Religious Zionist Party head Bezalel Smotrich is not repeating his threat in front of every microphone to quit the government if the IDF does not resume fighting in Gaza at the end of the 42-day first phase of the current ceasefire.Smotrich knows that abandoning the government now would be self-defeating – for himself and for his ideological goals.The haredi parties are also well aware of this.While Trump may very well have neutralized the immediate threat of Smotrich leaving the government, he did not directly remove the haredi parties’ threat – shouted by some, such as United Torah Judaism leader Yitzhak Goldknopf, and whispered by others, such as Shas leader Arye Deri – that they will not pass the budget by March 31 if a haredi conscription bill to their liking is not passed. And if the budget is not passed by March 31, the government will fall.This threat may push Smotrich – who faces mounting pressure from the religious-Zionist community to reject any bill that does not lead to significant, not just token, haredi conscription – to be more flexible and align with the haredim on this issue more than he otherwise would have had Trump not put his plan on the table.Why? To keep the government fully intact and fully positioned to take advantage of the situation offered by Trump.October 7 and the heavy sacrifices borne by the National-Religious public during the war have led to a sea change among this public regarding haredi exemptions. Before the war, this community was not at the forefront of the push for haredi military service – that was more the domain of Avigdor Liberman and Yair Lapid. But after October 7, the stark inequality of one segment of the population enjoying blanket exemptions for Torah study – while another segment, which values Torah study no less, serves, and pays the price – has become impossible to ignore.National-Religious women have organized into groups to protest the exemptions. Every week, Makor Rishon, widely read among the Right and the National-Religious community, has full-page ads calling on Smotrich and the Religious Zionist Party to vote for a true haredi conscription bill, as well as one op-ed after the next decrying haredi exemptions. Smotrich is under pressure from his grassroots.And he is not alone. Inside Likud, a group of MKs has made it clear that they will only support a significant haredi conscription bill – not the current version, which includes gradual yearly quotas leading to 50% of haredim serving within seven years but, critically, also means that 50% will not serve as well.These MKs – Smotrich and the potential Likud rebels among them – may soon face a difficult choice: Reject a watered-down haredi conscription bill and risk the haredi parties toppling the government while Trump is in power, or support the bill, effectively entrenching widespread exemptions but keeping the government intact to advance a broader right-wing agenda – from relocating Gazans to extending sovereignty over key parts of Judea and Samaria.The cost of compromise, however, would be high. Since October 7, the demand for full haredi conscription has become a rallying cry for fairness and national responsibility. Abandoning it risks alienating their base, yet standing firm could bring down the government best positioned to achieve its ideological vision under Trump’s presidency.Either path carries a heavy price, forcing them to decide what is more important: an equitable distribution of the burden of defending the country or long-term ideological ambitions as they pertain to Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.