This past Tuesday, the Middle East transformed overnight when the IDF withdrew nearly all its forces from southern Lebanon after four-and-a-half months, leaving only several hundred soldiers at five outposts a few hundred meters from the border.
On Wednesday, The Jerusalem Post visited various spots near the border with Lebanon, including Metulla, Kiryat Shmona, and Kfar Giladi, in order to see and hear from soldiers and northern residents how their lives have improved since the November 27 ceasefire, and whether they still feel safe after the IDF withdrawal.
The Post also had the opportunity to get a close-up feel for the evolving situation on the ground in southern Lebanon.
When the Post went to a southern Lebanese village embedded with the IDF in October 2024, visited the Israeli side of the Lebanese border in December 2024, and on other earlier visits, there were essentially no Lebanese in sight, nor was there even the sound of a Lebanese presence.
By early 2024, most Lebanese villagers had already fled southern Lebanon due to ongoing low-grade fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. And by October 2024, all Lebanese, including Hezbollah, had fled from those villages due to the massive IDF ground invasion.
However, on Tuesday, there were already sights, even from a distance, of Lebanese returning to their villages, as there were loud sounds of prayers from mosques on the Lebanese side.
Multiple sources, including Candice Omerod of Kfar Giladi, said that they have heard increased noises of Lebanese approaching the border and gunfire to distance them from the border.
Many villages in southern Lebanon destroyed
One fact the Post could see has not changed yet, and will probably take months or years to change, is that many of the villages in southern Lebanon are destroyed, with only shells of shattered houses visible in the distance.
The IDF did not permit the Post to approach any of the five outposts a few hundred meters into Lebanese territory, but the Post came very close to the outpost on the east side of Metulla, arrived in the vicinity of Kiryat Shmona across from another outpost, and also traveled near an outpost parallel to Margaliot.
Speaking to some soldiers and northern residents, there are mixed feelings about the five outposts.
Kiryat Shmona spokesman Doron Shneper told the Post, “We would not need any of these outposts if the IDF had gotten rid of Hezbollah. We feel this a historic miss and that there will be a crying out of generations, because Israel could change the reality on the northern border and with a bit more determination could prevent future wars and ensure peace by cleaning out the territory” of Hezbollah.
Shneper continued, “This is not just in our interest, but it is in the interest of the Lebanese people. Nowhere else did a terror organization conquer a country and the world remained quiet. The Lebanese support the IDF more than some Israelis. Who suffers from Hezbollah day to day? The Lebanese!”Further, he said that the five outposts do nothing to protect Kiryat Shmona from Hezbollah’s arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets, nor does it completely protect the city from an invasion, as it only sits on one side of the city.A similar comment was made by security sources about Metulla. They noted that while the eastern side of the city is better protected by the IDF outpost, the western side of the sprawling city has essentially no protection from the outpost.
In addition, certain soldiers pointed out that there could have been additional outposts, with superior vantage points, but that some of these were vetoed to avoid friction with Lebanese villagers, given that they were closer to the villages.In contrast, the soldiers and other sources said that the five positions that were selected struck a balance between giving Israel some advantages of early warnings from any potential invasion while being at a distance from the villages to reduce friction.
IDF sources responded that the five outposts did not compromise on Israeli security and gave the IDF “operational supremacy” in a number of areas, both in terms of intelligence collection and preventing invasions.
While the Post did not see soldiers spread out across the border, it did take account of a large number of soldiers at particular bases and positions.
Residents from Majdal Shams who happened to also be in the area echoed the feeling that there were far more soldiers protecting them now than before October 7, 2023, and that this increased their feelings of security.
Still, the return of northern residents so far has been dismal.
Many northern Israeli residents won’t return
Many residents are not returning in protest either over Hezbollah not being disarmed or the IDF not retaining a permanent larger security perimeter in southern Lebanon.
Others are not returning because they are afraid that even if at this moment the five outposts and triple number of troops on the border provide mores security against a weakened Hezbollah, in three or five years, Hezbollah will make a comeback and the IDF and Israel’s short attention span will lead to losing their focus on keeping security strong.
Shneper noted that Kiryat Shmona is even fighting before the High Court of Justice against the government decision to end financial and educational support for certain northern residents outside of their home cities as part of a plan to compel them to return to the North.
He and other northern residents, including in Metulla and Kfar Giladi, said that significant portions of public infrastructure and services, let alone schools, were simply not ready to reabsorb large numbers of returning residents on March 2 when the subsidies are set to expire.
Only a tiny percentage of residents have returned to those locations to date, and while some more are expected to return in early March, Omerod of Kfar Giladi said that most returnees would not come back until summer 2025, leading into the school years.
In Metulla, it could take several months to repair certain houses and some years to repair the rest.
The Post returned to visit the Metulla house of Zami Ravid, which experienced multiple hits. He has lived in Metulla for over 50 years (the Post last visited the house in early December). The second floor of the house was mostly destroyed, causing it to collapse onto large portions of the first floor.
Several other houses on the street were struck in the same barrage.
No progress in rebuilding any of the destroyed houses was observed by the Post, which sources said was because of delays caused by public competitive bidding processes for developers and delayed financing.
Omerod and sources from Metulla and Kiryat Shmona also said that in some cases as many as 40% of residents may never come back because of the trauma of the rocket attacks, the new fear of invasion after October 7, and the simple passing of nearly 17 months living in new places with new lives.
Multiple sources said that the government would need to provide financial incentives to draw new families to the North to replace many of the former residents who will not come back.
In addition, Omerod said that some residents would not return because the government had reneged on paying for safe rooms. Originally, she said Kfar Giladi was guaranteed full financial reimbursement to pay for safe rooms because it is only around one kilometer from the border.
However, later she said the village was told that due to budget shortfalls, the government would only cover part of the safe room cost, leaving villagers to cover between NIS 20,000-NIS 70,000 out of pocket – something many residents cannot afford.
IDF sources assured the Post that there is a new and safer security reality in the North. They noted that the overwhelming 150,000 Hezbollah rocket arsenal threat has been massively reduced.
Moreover, they noted that the Radwan Force mass invasion threat had been removed completely, and if some theoretical small penetration by a random terrorist still might exist, it was tiny in comparison to the pre-war large-scale invasion threat.
Most importantly, IDF sources said that the 10 battalions on the border were a huge boost in terms of the volume of border security, and this is without counting increased second line defense reinforcements.
That said, IDF sources acknowledged that the military can only provide “actual physical security” and that it cannot fully address subjective emotional feelings of insecurity that some residents may have.
The big questions for the next half a year are: whether the IDF will remain in the five outposts, whether Hezbollah will start using the camouflage of villagers returning to southern Lebanon to return its forces there, and whether a large enough percentage of residents will return before the next school year to get the North back on its feet.