The coalition is struggling to ensure the majority needed to pass the 2025 state budget – which must pass by March 31 or else the government will fall – several sources have said.
The struggles were exacerbated after three members of the Agudat Yisrael faction (the hassidic-wing of United Torah Judaism) – Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf and MKs Yaakov Tessler and Moshe Roth – announced on Thursday that they will vote against the budget unless a bill to exempt a majority of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) yeshiva students from IDF service passes first.
That bill is currently being prepared in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee but is unlikely to pass by the end of the month.
The coalition has a 62-58 majority after Otzma Yehudit’s exit in January, which took six MKs from the majority. Goldknopf is currently not an MK. Ahead of the budget vote, he is expected to resign from his ministerial position to regain voting power in the Knesset, under what is known as the Norwegian Law. This will push out Degel Hatorah MK Eliyahu Baruchi.
However, in this scenario, Deputy Transportation Minister Uri Maklev may resign from the government as well to regain his own voting rights. This would push Roth out of the Knesset, leaving Goldknopf and Tessler as the sole UTJ members expected to vote against the budget.
Still, their two votes alone would be enough to bring the tally of votes to a 60-60 tie, in which case the budget would not pass, and the government would fall.
A lot could change by end of month
While this scenario is possible, much could still change by the end of the month. For example, if Israel reinvades Gaza, Otzma Yehudit will rejoin the government and support the budget, providing the votes it needs to pass.
On the other hand, other UTJ members may also end up voting against the budget – such as MK Yisrael Eichler, who belongs to the Belz hassidut. The Belzer Rebbe has preferred to refrain from making public threats at the moment and is waiting to see what will happen at the end of the month, according to a source.
In addition, in the case of a 60-60 tie, it is enough for one member of the opposition to abstain from voting for the budget to pass.
Coalition leaders would likely try to convince at least one opposition MK to abstain in exchange for political capital, such as a future spot on the Likud list, a promise to advance a specific bill by that MK, or something similar. Potential candidates to abstain are opposition MKs who act independently of their parties, such as Almog Cohen from Otzma Yehudit and Idan Roll, formerly of Yesh Atid.