Amid growing criticism from the Right against Attorney-General Gali Baharv-Miara and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir's warning that “2025 will be a year of war,” the latest Maariv poll shows Likud and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition gaining two seats.
The poll, which was conducted by Lazar Research in collaboration with Panel4All and led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, also shows opposition party Yisrael Beytenu gaining two seats, bringing it level with the National Unity Party, while Yesh Atid and the Democrats each lost two seats.
Coalition and opposition standings
In total, the coalition bloc now holds 54 seats, up from 52 in the previous poll. The opposition bloc has dropped to 56 seats from 58, while the Arab parties remain steady at 10 seats.
The poll further suggests that if former prime minister Naftali Bennett were to run in the next election, the Netanyahu-led coalition would drop to 49 seats. In comparison, a Bennett-led opposition would secure 61 seats. The Arab parties would maintain their 10 seats.
According to the survey, a party led by Bennett would win 25 seats, followed by Likud with 21. Yisrael Beytenu would receive 10 seats, while Yesh Atid, Shas, and the National Unity Party would each secure nine. The Democrats and Otzma Yehudit would get eight seats each, United Torah Judaism would take seven, Hadash-Ta’al six, and Ra’am and Religious Zionism four each.
Hostage deal and war policy
A majority of Israelis—54%—believe that the government should agree to a deal securing the release of all hostages in exchange for an end to the war and withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. In contrast, 10% favor continuing the staged release process, as was done in previous negotiations, while 27% believe that the best approach is to resume full-scale fighting to pressure Hamas into releasing the hostages. Another 9% said they were unsure.
Among coalition supporters, 53% back a return to intensified military operations, while an overwhelming 83% of opposition voters support a hostage release deal and an end to the war.
Haredi draft law debate
The poll also reveals that the Israeli public remains divided over the proposed conscription law. A plurality, 42%, supports legislation that would gradually increase the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men into the military.
Meanwhile, 35% believe the existing law should remain in place and that draft orders should be sent to all eligible individuals. Only 14% say that the conscription law should be enacted according to the demands of Haredi political parties, while 9% expressed no opinion.
Divided opinions on the attorney-general
The survey also found an almost even split regarding the dismissal of Baharav-Miara. Among respondents, 40% oppose her removal, while 37% support it. Political divisions are stark, with 78% of coalition supporters favoring her dismissal, compared to 73% of opposition supporters who oppose it.
The survey, conducted between March 12 and 13, included 500 respondents representing Israel’s adult population (aged 18 and over). The poll’s margin of error is 4.4%.