“Netanyahu's visit this week was arranged in great haste and focused on four main topics. It is now clear that the reason the Prime Minister urgently requested to come to Washington was the Iranian issue,” said Mike Herzog, who served as Israel’s ambassador to the US until January.
Herzog, a retired brigadier general and a scholar in Israel-Middle East relations, revealed in an exclusive interview with Maariv what he believes happened behind the scenes during Netanyahu’s visit to the White House this week.
The rushed timing of the meeting regarding Iran stemmed from the US administration’s decision “to immediately begin negotiations with Iran and inform Israel of the development, to ensure the Israelis are in the loop and on the same page,” Herzog explained.
Key Issues for Israel in US–Iran Talks
According to Herzog, “Israel has never objected in principle to diplomatic engagement over Iran’s nuclear program,” but given the past failures and painful lessons, Israel approaches the current negotiations between the US and Iran with “discomfort and great caution.”
The Iranian nuclear project has advanced so far that it’s hard to see how meaningful rollback can be achieved through diplomacy alone. However, a unique but time-limited opportunity exists to address it militarily.
Herzog highlighted Israel’s two main concerns: either Iran will drag out the negotiations endlessly to buy time, or the dynamics of negotiation will lead the US to make concessions to Iran in the rush to reach a deal — potentially a bad one.
In contrast, Prime Minister Netanyahu has presented a very high threshold for any agreement — the “Libyan model” — which means the complete dismantling and destruction of all nuclear infrastructure.
Herzog added, “There is no chance Iran will agree to such a demand, as it already announced this week.” The question, therefore, becomes: Will the US insist on this model? And if so, what will it do if Iran rejects it?
Negotiation Scope and Red Lines
Herzog believes Israel must try to agree in advance with the US administration on several critical issues: What is the scope of the negotiations — just the nuclear infrastructure or also missile systems (which are delivery platforms for nuclear weapons) and other matters? What demands will the US present to Iran, and what will its red lines be? What is the timeline for negotiations, considering Iran might try to buy critical time? And finally: “What happens if Iran refuses a deal under US terms? Will the US support a military option — and if so, led by Israel, by the US, or jointly?”
Some speculated that Netanyahu was unaware of the decision to start immediate US-Iran talks, as suggested by his facial expressions at the joint press conference this week. However, Herzog, familiar with the workings of diplomacy, said, “The real discussion happens behind closed doors. We saw a hint of surprise on the Prime Minister’s face, but I believe it was not about the talks themselves, but rather the immediate timing and Trump’s decision to announce them publicly at the press conference.”
Trump's urgency and Netanyahu’s strategic calculations
Trump’s conduct regarding the nuclear talks is surprising in another respect — the short time frame he has allocated. Trump reportedly wants negotiations to conclude within just two months. According to Herzog, this indicates the US does not intend to let Iran drag it into endless talks. Still, two months is a very short period to reach a comprehensive agreement — past experience suggests it will take much longer.
Nevertheless, Iran's advanced nuclear progress demands decisions in the coming months. Herzog, who has participated in top-level diplomatic and military discussions for years, warned, “Iran’s nuclear status is very dangerous. Its ‘breakout time’ — the time needed to produce enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb — is less than a week.”
He also emphasized that Iran now possesses “such large quantities of enriched uranium that if it decides today to pursue weapons, it would have enough for 17 nuclear warheads — that’s a lot.”
Given this dangerous juncture and the current weakness of Iran and its regional axis, Herzog said there’s a limited window of opportunity for action. Iran could recover from recent blows, restore its defenses, and further protect its nuclear components. He also noted that this October marks the end of the snapback sanctions clause from the 2015 nuclear deal — which allowed for the automatic reimposition of international sanctions. In Herzog’s words: “We have only a few critical months to make decisions on the Iranian issue.”
Behind the scenes of the "Tariff War"
The second issue discussed by Netanyahu and Trump was, unsurprisingly, tariff policy. Trump has temporarily frozen (as of Wednesday) all tariffs above the base rate of 10% for three months. At the meeting, Netanyahu did not receive a commitment that the US would reduce the 17% tariff imposed on Israeli goods. Still, Herzog noted that “the visit initiated a dialogue process between our government and the American one to reduce the tariff rate.”
He added that “Trump’s decision to freeze tariffs gives us more space to manage the discussion in a more orderly and calculated way.”
Herzog explained that the tariff issue wasn’t unexpected. “It didn’t come as a surprise,” he said. “It was part of Trump’s campaign, and months ago we at the embassy identified it, warned Israeli officials, and advised them to prepare.”
Did Israel follow those recommendations? Beyond the economic dimension, Herzog sees Netanyahu’s White House visit as mutually beneficial diplomatically. “It was important for the Prime Minister to show he was the first leader to arrive at the White House to talk tariffs,” while Trump benefited from the optics of leaders approaching him on this matter — with Israel, a close and friendly country, being the first.
"He won’t let the war go on forever"
The third topic raised both publicly and behind closed doors was Gaza. Herzog said there is “an Israeli-American effort to reach an interim deal, something between Phase A that has already occurred and Phase B — which would mean ending the war (something Israel is avoiding) — and allowing for another round of hostage releases.”
Currently, three proposals are circulating for a hostage deal: the Egyptian proposal, Hamas’s proposal, and the one from Vitec. If implemented, such an interim agreement would delay the decision between prioritizing hostage release and toppling Hamas.
Herzog believes, and published an article on this two months ago, that hostage release should come first. He sees that “Trump wants to push forward a deal. For now, he’s giving Israel quite a bit of rope and freedom to steer the course, but he is already expressing a desire to see the war end.”
Herzog would not be surprised if Trump eventually pressures Netanyahu to agree to a full hostage deal and end the war. As the ambassador put it: “I don’t think Trump will allow the Gaza war to drag on indefinitely — both because of the hostages, and because he wants to end wars and focus on other things on his agenda.”
Turkey in Syria – a source of concern
Herzog also addressed the fourth issue — Turkey’s role in Syria — which was raised during the Netanyahu-Trump press conference and in private meetings. “Turkey’s incursion into Syria greatly concerns Israeli decision-makers — and rightly so,” he said. Turkey, which has become increasingly hostile toward Israel, has military ambitions in Syria that could lead to friction with Israel.
Turkish military presence in Syrian territory “could threaten Israel’s freedom of action in the region,” Herzog warned, adding that it could have implications for military options related to Iran as well. Trump’s offer to use his strong ties with Erdogan to mediate between Israel and Turkey does not reassure Herzog, who welcomed the beginning of direct Israeli-Turkish dialogue on the matter.