Is this the start of a fourth wave of infections or just part of our new, topsy-turvy COVID-19 world?
Israel must respond quickly and resolutely to the latest outbreak, but health experts agree that there is no reason to panic just yet.
This is what’s known:
The Delta (Indian) variant, according to at least one study, doubles the risk of hospitalization compared with the previously dominant Alpha (British) variant. However, two doses of the Pfizer vaccine are between 88% and 96% effective against preventing hospitalization and severe disease.
Sixty percent of the public is inoculated, although the Delta variant does strike people who have been vaccinated. About one-third of new cases were people who had been inoculated.
In Israel, there was an increase in the number of new daily cases last week. However, there was no corresponding increase in the number of people hospitalized.
The country experienced “a terrible last year,” but now “we know what to do,” Hadassah-University Medical Center Director-General Zeev Rotstein told The Jerusalem Post. “We know how to stop the chain of infection. We know how to behave – what to do and what not to do. The hospitals are prepared.”
Moreover, there is a prime minister and a health minister who in their first weeks have already shown more transparency than the previous government. As such, “the public will be more likely to cooperate” with their decisions, Rotstein added.
Israel is not in the same danger as it was at the beginning of the pandemic, said epidemiologist Hagai Levine, but there is a danger of a massive outbreak. In that case, people will get infected, and some may even die.
There are currently around 350,000 Israelis who are either unvaccinated or for whom the vaccine is not optimally effective for various reasons. Based on traditional percentages, that would mean 50,000 patients in serious condition, according to Prof. Eli Waxman, who served on the National Security Council’s expert advisers committee on the outbreak during the previous waves, when, if all 350,000 people had been infected, it would have caused up to 20% or 50,000 patients to be in serious condition.
While it can be assumed that not everyone falls ill, more likely only 10%-20%, “we don’t want to have thousands of severely ill people again,” Waxman said.
And because there are several uncertainties, Israel must take swift and decisive, but measured, action to stop the spread of the virus.
In other words, Israel should not panic, but it should also not pretend as if everything is OK.
“Widespread infection of children is something we should avoid,” Waxman stressed.
While it is true that most children would only experience mild symptoms or less, there is evidence that a percentage would suffer long-term effects, such as long COVID or other complications.
“And we don’t know how infrequent or frequent this would be with the new variant,” Waxman said.
Also, widespread infection of children would inevitably reach the adults, as Israel already sees happening.
On Friday, Israel again rolled out the mandate to wear masks in closed spaces. On Sunday, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced the appointment of Maj.-Gen. (res.) Roni Numa as special coronavirus airport commissioner.
The coronavirus cabinet was expected to announce a plan to limit the participation of people who are not vaccinated in activities where large crowds are expected by re-instituting the green passport, although it decided against this measure.
It did discuss plans to ensure that the infrastructure for cutting off infection chains – test, trace, isolate – is properly working.
The public can also do its part by getting vaccinated.
“People who can be vaccinated and are not doing so are simply putting themselves and those around them in danger,” Bennett said at the cabinet meeting on Sunday morning.
Health officials cannot say this current outbreak will continue growing. But they also cannot say it won’t.
Using masks and isolating costs little and could have a big impact.
“If we do these things in parallel, and we advance as much as possible the vaccination of children, then we will be able to contain this outbreak without any drastic measures,” Waxman said. “If we lose control, meaning the numbers rise to many hundreds a day, then this will not be sufficient, and we will be forced to take more severe action.”