September has been a month of landmark anniversaries.
Because Yom Kippur this year fell in September, the nation marked the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War last week. September also marked the 45th anniversary of the Camp David Accords, the 30th anniversary of the Oslo Accords, and three years to the Abraham Accords.
Another anniversary took place this month, though it went largely unnoticed. Yesterday, September 28, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu completed 16 full years in office.
Sixteen years. That’s a long time, even considering his terms were not continuous. His initial term, from 1996 until 1999, lasted three years and 18 days. The second term, which began in 2009 and continued until 2022, spanned 12 years and 74 days, and his third term – as of September 28 – has extended for 272 days (his legion of critics will say it feels much longer).
Add that all up, and that gives you 16 years, or 5,840 days. Israel is only 75¼ years old (27,530 days, to be exact), which means that one man – Netanyahu – has led the country for more than one-fifth of the Jewish state’s entire existence (21.2%).
While this “anniversary” flew under the radar screen, much more was made of the moment in July 2019 when Netanyahu surpassed David Ben-Gurion as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Combining the years that both men served as prime minister – Ben-Gurion served for 13 years and 127 days over two nonconcurrent terms – it emerges that two men have led the country for just under 40% of its entire history (38.9%).
That is an eye-popping statistic.
When Netanyahu first took the reins in 1996, Bill Clinton was the US president, Boris Yeltsin held sway in Russia, Helmut Kohl served as Germany’s chancellor, and John Major was the British prime minister. In 1996, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was not yet old enough to drive, bitter Netanyahu foe Avigdor Liberman was a Netanyahu friend and confidant, and Yair Netanyahu was all of five years old.
It is hard to believe that Netanyahu’s office was unaware of Thursday’s anniversary, yet – unlike when he surpassed Ben-Gurion’s longevity mark – it did not flag it or mark it in any way. One can imagine why: trumpeting that Netanyahu has been in office for so long would play into the hands of the “Kaplan Force” leading the anti-judicial reform movement, which is already saying he is a dictator-in-waiting. After all, what democratic country has one leader for so long?
Sure, there are some countries whose current leaders have held power longer. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led Turkey in one capacity or another (first as prime minister and now as president) for some 20 years. Viktor Orban has been Hungary’s prime minister for 17 years across two terms, and Vladimir Putin has been president of Russia for 19 years, also spanning two nonconcurrent terms.
But those are obviously leaders with whom Netanyahu is not necessarily keen on being compared.
Among European democracies that, like Israel, do not have term limits – the US instituted term limits after Franklin D. Roosevelt served for 12 years and 39 days – having one person lead the country for so long is extremely rare, though not entirely unprecedented.
In the post-World War II era, Tage Erlander served as prime minister of Sweden for an uninterrupted 23 years, while Jean-Claude Juncker held Luxembourg’s prime minister position for 19 years. Kohl led Germany for 16 years from 1982 to 1998, just a few days longer than Angela Merkel’s tenure from 2005 to 2021, a term that earned her the title “the eternal chancellor.”
Merkel voluntarily stepped down even though an AFP story at the time said she “leaves with her popularity so resilient she would likely have won a record fifth term had she sought it.”
However, the same cannot be said of Netanyahu, who will turn 74 next month and who first became prime minister at 46.
First of all, Netanyahu is showing no signs of voluntarily stepping down. Secondly, as he enters his 17th year in office, his popularity does not mirror Merkel’s when she stepped down.
Potential posed by Saudi-Israeli ties
Despite what was widely viewed as a successful diplomatic trip to the US last week – a week that took attention momentarily away from the judicial overhaul debate and toward the tantalizing prospect of a sweeping US-Saudi Arabia-Israel pact that could prove transformative for the region – polls this week by three television networks showed that were elections held now, Netanyahu’s coalition would take a trouncing.
In two of the three polls, the Likud would win fewer seats than Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party, and in all three the coalition would remain well short of its current majority.
Tellingly, however, in the Channel 12 poll, Netanyahu is still seen as the most suited to be prime minister, outpolling Gantz 37% to 35%, and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid 39% to 29%. The Channel 11 poll, meanwhile, had him in a dead heat with Gantz at 37%, while roundly thumping Lapid by some 10 percentage points.
According to this poll, Netanyahu gained two to three percentage points over Gantz from the previous survey a week earlier, an increase attributed to the prime minister’s week in the US and the talk of a Saudi deal.
That Netanyahu is either tied or leading in the compatibility race, while his coalition is getting clobbered by the opposition in polls measuring Knesset seats, shows that Netanyahu is far more popular than his coalition, something worth noting.
Accusations against Bibi abound
IF, DESPITE everything – despite the accusations of being a closet dictator; despite eight months of nonstop protest against him and his government’s policies; despite the uptick in terrorism; despite the runaway violence on the Arab street; despite the high cost of living; despite the continuing court cases against him – Netanyahu is still seen by so many as the most suited to be prime minister, it says something about the state of the country.
First, it indicates that in a deeply divided country, the prime minister retains a strong base of loyal supporters not moved by all the scandals, all the protests, and all the cacophonous background noise.
Second, it says that after 16 years, a good slice of the population – despite living in a country that feels at times as if it is about to rip apart at the seams – sees him as a competent leader. This perception was undoubtedly strengthened by Netanyahu’s trip to the US last week, where he did what he excels at: meeting with world leaders, explaining Israel’s position to the world, and giving speeches.
That the poll findings show that in a head-to-head battle with his two main political rivals, Netanyahu would likely squeak out a victory even today indicates that he has been able to convince a significant part of the population that both the anti-reform protests and the legal issues he faces are politically motivated or overblown by his opponents.
These poll numbers also bespeak the lack of what the public views as attractive alternatives. If, in light of everything, Netanyahu beats Lapid in a head-to-head race over who is more suited to be prime minister, and would either tie or just defeat Gantz in the same race, then that says something about what the country thinks about the prime minister’s opponents.
And finally, these numbers show that old habits die hard, and that if someone does the same job for 16 years – regardless of the results – many will believe no one is more capable.
Polls, however, are transitory and reflect a fleeting moment in time.
ANOTHER QUESTION naturally pondered as Netanyahu begins his 17th year as the country’s prime minister is what legacy he will leave.
Some argue that these past nine months have forever soiled Netanyahu’s legacy. Others will point to the beginning of police investigations against him in 2016 as the dividing line between the “old” Netanyahu, who was concerned first and foremost with the country, and the “new” Netanyahu, whose main preoccupation has been political survival at all costs.
And still others, his supporters, will contend that the “old” and “new” Netanyahu are the same, and that history will judge him most favorably for all he has done for the state.
History has a way of diminishing events that, at the moment, seem so consequential. For instance, the judicial reform and the divisions within Israeli society that it has brought to the surface seem monumental today. But will they look so momentous in 50 years?
From a historical perspective, would this all not be dwarfed, were the current US-Israel-Saudi discussions about a grand deal come to fruition and usher in a truly new Middle East?
Obviously, Netanyahu’s legacy will hinge to a large degree on how both these developments run their course.
If, as the protest movement’s leaders argue, the judicial reform will lead Israel down an undemocratic road, then that will be a big part of Netanyahu’s legacy. If the reform is modified, but the societal divisions remain as intense as they are today, then that will be a big part.
But if the US-Saudi-Israel deal under discussion materializes, that will take up the lion’s share of what he will be remembered for.
A leader’s legacy, however, is rarely binary. Netanyahu could go down in history both as the prime minister under whose watch the ties that bind the country were stretched to the breaking point, and as the leader whose vision of being able to make peace with the Arab world even without an agreement with the Palestinians won the day.
The prime minister’s legacy is unlikely to be monochromatic. It won’t be solely black or white, sunshine or storm, triumph or tragedy. Rather, it will be a blend of both – just like those 16 years in office he completed on Thursday. •