A significant number of voters have not yet decided who they are likely to vote for in the next elections, according to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).
An IDI report, conducted by Lior Yohanani, highlighted that the number of Likud repeat voters has increased from 39% in August to 54% in December.
This was most likely a result of military successes in Lebanon and greater security stability at the time. Most of these “new” votes seem to have come at the cost of the National Unity and the Otzma Yehudit parties.
There was not much support for a theoretical new right-wing party among Likud voters.
Some 26% of those who expressed they would not be voting for Likud again declared that they were unsure who they would vote for or declined to respond entirely.
National Unity saw a substantial decline in its share of repeat voters, from 70% in April to 34% in December. Yisrael Beytenu and a theoretical new right-wing party seem to have drawn away these voters.
Both Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party, which ran together in 2022, saw a significant decline in repeat voter share over the summer.
This decreased to 50% in August, although there has been some improvement since then. More voters intend to vote for Otzma Yehudit than for RZP. The haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties held the highest average share of repeat voters.
United Torah Judaism has maintained a high level of stability, while 68% of Shas voters said they intend to vote for the party again in the next election. Yesh Atid maintained a low repeat voter share of 30% across all surveys, while Yisrael Beytenu has fluctuated from 65% in April to 78% in June and then down to 52% in December.
Among the Arab parties, Ra’am was able to maintain the most stable level of support with 55%-65%, while Hadash-Ta’al and Balad had more fluctuation. As of December, the Democrats, Yesh Atid, and National Unity have similar voting shares.
Good news for Israel's Democrats?
A significant part of the report focused on Yair Golan’s Democrats, the party formed in June with the merger of Labor and Meretz. The Democrats have gained the attention of former Meretz voters, although they have struggled to attract Labor voters.
The data showed that there are currently three main sources of support for the Democrats, which include former Labor and Meretz voters as well as Yesh Atid voters.
Most of their support comes from far-left voters, as opposed to the moderate Left. According to the report, these voters can be characterized as “critical Zionists.” They support the separation of powers and trust the IDF but heavily criticize government policies and want change in Israel through diplomatic rather than military solutions.
Almost 40% of potential Democrat voters did not express a preference for any party. Most of the analysis in the report was based on data collected via the Israeli Voice Index monthly survey between February and December last year.
The data, which reveals information specific to the Democrats, is based on an analysis of three surveys, including two from the Israeli Voice Index and another based on the judicial overhaul conducted in December.