The round of violence between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, which erupted in early August, was the shortest of all the periodic military confrontations to date: it lasted less than three days.
Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who happened to be in Tehran when the fighting took place, spoke of “a historic victory against the enemy’s aggression,” but the terrorist group failed in its most important goal – to persuade the much more powerful Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, to join the battle.
Hamas, for now at least, appears to have different priorities, the most important of which is maintaining relative quiet on the border with Israel.
“Operation Breaking Dawn restored to Israel the initiative, it restored Israeli deterrence, and all of the objectives were achieved,” declared Prime Minister Yair Lapid. “Islamic Jihad’s entire top military leadership in Gaza was taken out within three days. The IDF’s strength and sophistication dealt the enemy a painful blow.”
“Islamic Jihad’s entire top military leadership in Gaza was taken out within three days. The IDF’s strength and sophistication dealt the enemy a painful blow.”
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid
Defense Minister Benny Gantz said three main achievements were notched during the short campaign. “Removing the imminent threat from Gaza; maintaining our freedom of action in all arenas; and maintaining deterrence, while sending a clear message to our enemies in each of the arenas: Israel is determined to maintain its sovereignty and protect its citizens,” Gantz said. “In the future, should it be necessary, we will launch a preemptive strike in order to protect the citizens of Israel, and defend its sovereignty and infrastructure. This is true on every front. From Tehran to Khan Yunis.”
Israeli officials stressed that they had made no concessions in agreeing to the Egyptian-brokered truce, repeating the mantra of previous ceasefire agreements that “quiet will be met with quiet.”
Islamic Jihad failed to squeeze a last-minute pledge from Israel to free two of its prisoners, instead receiving an Egyptian promise to work toward their release.
The IDF said it killed more than a dozen Islamic Jihad fighters, including two senior commanders, and destroyed key terrorist infrastructure used to manufacture weapons.
There were 1,100 rockets fired toward Israel, but Iron Dome missile batteries intercepted 96% of the incoming projectiles heading for Israeli population centers. Not a single Israeli was killed or seriously wounded, although Shlomo Atias, 60, a resident of Ashkelon, suffered a heart attack while running to a bomb shelter and died in Barzilai Hospital.
Will Operation Breaking Dawn restore Israeli deterrence in Gaza?
Despite the blow inflicted on Islamic Jihad, only time will tell if Operation Breaking Dawn succeeded in restoring Israel’s deterrence on the Gaza front, as Israeli leaders claim.
Israel’s tactical victory does not end the strategic problem of Gaza, and without a diplomatic vision, every truce is destined to remain no more than a temporary lull until the next round.
Day-to-day living conditions for most of Gaza’s two million residents remain dire, and Hamas maintains its tight grip on the impoverished coastal enclave.
Forty-eight Palestinians were killed during the three days of fighting – 29 from Israeli attacks, and the rest from Islamic Jihad rockets that fell short and landed inside Gaza.
According to the army’s data, one out of five rockets fired by Islamic Jihad at Israel fell short. Nineteen uninvolved Palestinian civilians were killed as a result, including 12 children, more than the number of civilians killed in Israeli air strikes.
The catalyst to Israel's Operation Breaking Dawn in Gaza
The catalyst to the operation came the previous week with the arrest of a leading Islamic Jihad West Bank commander, Bassam al-Saadi, in Jenin. Following his arrest, intelligence reports indicated that Islamic Jihad cells in Gaza were planning a revenge cross-border attack using sniper or anti-tank fire.
Israel closed crossings to the Gaza Strip, laborers were prevented from entering Israel to work, goods and fuel shipments were halted, and fishing areas were restricted.
Roads in Israel close to the border were closed, and train routes were suspended. The intolerable disruption to daily routine for residents of the South could not continue for an extended period, so IDF generals prepared for a preemptive strike, aimed at catching the enemy off guard.
IDF preemptive strike on Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza
The attack came on the afternoon of Friday, August 5, with a precision strike on an apartment on the seventh floor of the Palestine Tower apartment block in Gaza City’s upscale Rimal neighborhood. Taysir al-Jabari, head of the Islamic Jihad in the northern Gaza Strip and in charge of coordination with Hamas, who were in the apartment below, was killed instantly. Simultaneously, Islamic Jihad cells on the border were targeted from the air.
During the three-day campaign, Israel also killed Khaled Mansour, the commander of Islamic Jihad in southern Gaza who was hiding in the Rafah refugee camp. Mansour had overseen numerous attacks against Israel, including the 2010 killing of IDF soldiers Eliraz Peretz and Ilan Sviatkovsky.
The Israeli political angle
The latest round of fighting came only five weeks after Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid became Israel’s caretaker prime minister, a post he will hold until the election on November 1, and maybe longer if a new government cannot be formed.
He was criticized by the right-wing opposition as a lightweight when it comes to security affairs, lacking Benjamin Netanyahu’s experience. But he handled the conflict, in close coordination with defense minister Benny Gantz, with resolve and calm, knowing how and when to start the operation and, critically, how and when to finish it.
Gantz warned that if the quiet in the South were to be disrupted, Israel would use its strength to whatever extent necessary. In an interview with Kan Television News after the end of the fighting, Gantz said that Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah had no insurance policy anywhere he went. In general, he said, all the leaders of terror organizations should be concerned.
The defense minister said that the coordination between him and the prime minister in the course Operation Breaking Dawn had been very good, and that Lapid had given the security establishment freedom of action.
Israeli officials said that they hope to leverage the successful outcome of the operation, and that Hamas staying out of the fighting could create long-term arrangements based on economic incentives in return for quiet on the border.
What happens with Israel and Gaza next?
No one is under any illusion that Hamas is about to lay down its weapons, but Israel hopes that a new pragmatism is emerging that can benefit both sides. If Hamas maintains the quiet, then Israel is expected to allow the number of day laborers crossing the border to reach 20,000 and maybe more; maintain extended fishing zones; permit large-scale infrastructure projects; and create industrial zones on the border.
Such an environment may also create favorable conditions to make progress toward a prisoner exchange with Hamas, although any such a deal will likely not happen before a new Israeli government is sworn in.
Under such a deal, Israel would be prepared to release an unspecified number of Palestinian security prisoners. In return, Israel insists on the release of both the two Israeli civilians being held in captivity after crossing the border, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, and the return of the remains of the two soldiers, Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, who fell in the 2014 Gaza war, also known as Operation Protective Edge.
The three-day war raised questions over Israel’s long-term policy that attributes to Hamas, as the exclusive sovereign power, responsibility for anything that happens in Gaza, including rocket fire from smaller armed groups.
In this conflict, Hamas was not a player: it watched from the side while the IDF and PIJ went to war. This suited Israel, and Hamas was not targeted. Hamas is already benefiting from its new role as the “responsible adult” in Gaza. Israel wants to keep it that way for the mutual benefit of both sides. ■