Over the past several days, a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing the Syrian regime out of Aleppo in northern Syria.
This surprise attack is a major setback for the Syrian regime. In many ways, it reflects the weakness of the regime, which doesn’t have enough soldiers to replace its losses over the last 13 years of civil war in Syria.
Syria is divided between the regime in western Syria, the Turkish-controlled parts of northern Syria, HTS in the Idlib area of northwest Syria, and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria.
The SDF has many Kurdish members, and Kurds are often threatened by developments in Syria because their communities are near the front lines in Aleppo, Tal Rifaat, and areas in eastern Syria.
In a divided Syria, minorities have often faced potential persecution. The Kurds are a minority group that historically suffered under Bashar Assad’s regime.
Minorities have faced persecution
The Kurds used to suffer from lack of citizenship in some areas and also suppression of their language and culture by a regime that portrayed itself as Arab nationalist.
Recently, the Kurds have found themselves empowered because of their role in fighting ISIS and receiving backing from the Pentagon. With that power, however, there came a spotlight that was not always helpful.
Turkey’s government has fought Kurdish groups in Turkey, primarily the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey accuses the SDF of being linked to the PKK via a group called the YPG, which is part of the SDF.
The current advance by HTS against the Syrian regime could threaten to create spillover, as Turkey could use the instability to attack Kurds, or various interested parties could try to exploit the HTS advance to direct it to attack the SDF.
Varying agendas in Syria have put minorities at a crossroads. For instance, the Syrian regime portrays itself as a protector of the Alawites, Christians, and Druze.
The ruling family of Syria is Alawite, but it is cognizant that it rules over a country that is majority Sunni Arab. Sunni Arabs have also made up the majority of the Syrian opposition and rebel factions.
This has sometimes put the rebels – who emerged after protests in 2011 – at odds with minority groups that are portrayed as “pro-Assad.”
This is not a simple story, and explaining it would take a book-length article. What’s worth knowing, however, is that minority groups find themselves exposed by war, and different agendas often try to pigeonhole them. They then pay the price regardless of which side they choose.
Kurds have been forced into this crucible. They went from being a relatively small minority in Syria that was suppressed by the regime to taking control of their own areas as the regime melted away in 2012 and 2013. By 2014 they were on the front line against a rising ISIS.
Isolated in eastern Syria, the Kurdish towns and villages fought ISIS and helped save the Yazidis in Iraq when ISIS committed genocide. The YPG was the key faction that played this vital role.
The US military, seeking partners to work by, with and through to defeat ISIS, worked with the YPG. It partnered with an umbrella group called the SDF, which included the YPG.
This worked well throughout 2016 as the SDF defeated ISIS. But it brought the SDF into conflict with Turkish-backed rebel groups near Manbij.
Turkey was busy turning Syrian rebels into proxies after the fall of Aleppo in 2016. By 2018, Turkey had invaded the Kurdish area of Afrin and used the newly branded SNA, an umbrella of rebel groups, to ethnically cleanse Kurds from Afrin.
Kurds ended up in IDP (internally displaced person) camps near Tal Rifaat in the Aleppo area. In Aleppo, the Kurds also controlled their own areas, centered around the Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood.
In eastern Syria, the SDF controls a huge area east of the Euphrates River, and a few hundred US soldiers support them against the remnants of ISIS. The Syrian regime ostensibly controls areas where Kurds live, such as Kobani, near the border with Turkey.
With the HTS offensive, the Kurds are now again in the spotlight. This is because pro-Turkey propagandists are trying to create tensions in Syria by portraying the SDF or YPG as pro-Assad.
In addition, Turkey is pushing the SNA to attack the Kurds. HTS has turned south from Aleppo to fight the regime in and around Hama, taking the pressure of Kurds in Aleppo and Tal Rifaat.
Things could change. There is talk of tensions near Deir Ezzor and Khasham near the Euphrates River. The SDF could make a move as the regime weakens and takes over more areas.
Already, reports say the SDF has taken over some areas the regime has abandoned, including some airfields. This is important, but if Turkey thinks the SDF is getting too strong, it might attack it.
In 2019, Turkey got the Trump administration to say it would withdraw from Syria. This risked the existence of the SDF.
Many wheels are in motion in Syria. It could leave Kurds and other minorities exposed. These groups have often been pushed to support the regime with claims that if they don’t, then the opposition will persecute them.This creates a vicious cycle in which minorities are pressed to support the regime and then portrayed as pro-regime supporters and attacked because of it. This leads them to back the regime, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Kurds, who have a long history of oppression at the hands of the regime, are powerful enough to have a third way – an autonomy that leaves them outside the regime camp and outside the Syrian rebel camp.
This can also potentially make them seem to be opponents of both. That doesn’t always work out well, but it’s the “least bad” option so far for the Kurds in Syria.