Scenes of enraptured crowds celebrating the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad emerged from Damascus on Sunday as Syrian rebels declared the removal of Assad’s regime after taking control of the capital, marking the end of his family’s 50-year grip on power.
The Islamist forces of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who led the rebel groups to almost final victory in the Syrian Civil War, also significantly undermined the regional influence of Assad’s key backers, Russia and Iran, who played crucial roles in sustaining his regime during critical phases of the conflict.
Assad reportedly fled Damascus earlier on Sunday, heading to an undisclosed location, according to senior military sources. Rebel forces, now in control of the capital, reported no visible resistance from government forces as they entered the city.
In a statement, the rebels celebrated their victory, referencing Sednaya prison, infamous for housing thousands of government detainees. “We rejoice with the Syrian people in breaking their chains and the end of the era of oppression,” they declared.
The coalition of opposition groups announced plans to transition power to an interim governing authority with full executive powers. “The Syrian revolution has progressed from overthrowing Assad’s regime to rebuilding a nation worthy of its people’s sacrifices,” the group stated.
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Crowds of Syrians gathered in Damascus on Sunday morning, waving flags and chanting “Freedom” to celebrate the end of the Assad family’s decades-long rule. Witnesses described scenes of jubilation as thousands filled the streets.
This stunning turn of events is a significant blow to Russia and Iran, who lose a pivotal ally in the Middle East. Iran, in particular, in its existential battle against Israel, will see the loss of a close ally on the Jewish State’s borders as a major blow to its operations with proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel and Syria – A brief history of relations
The State of Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic have never had formal ties since the inception of both countries in the 20th century.
The two countries have been locked in a perpetual state of war since the establishment of Israel in May 1948 and an immediate declaration of war. The Syrian army initially captured territories in the newly formed State of Israel near the Sea of Galilee during the War of Independence.
Following the July 1949 Armistice Agreement, much of this land was returned to Israel and designated as Demilitarized Zones (DMZs). However, disputes over borders, territorial ownership, and agricultural rights in these zones led to intermittent skirmishes until the Six Day War in 1967.
In the early 1950s, Syria gradually regained control over some disputed areas along the Golan Heights, particularly around the Sea of Galilee. These territorial disputes were exacerbated by conflicts over water rights, including Israel’s attempts to use water from the Jordan River and the Sea of Galilee for irrigation and drinking purposes.
From 1964 to 1966, Syria undertook a project to divert the Jordan River’s tributaries, which would have significantly impacted Israel’s water supply. This provoked intensified clashes, culminating in one of the key crises that led to the Six Day War.
The United Arab Republic (UAR) was officially formed on February 1, 1958, as an early step towards achieving broader pan-Arab unity between Syria and Egypt.
The initiative was first proposed to Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser by a group of influential political and military figures from Syria and saw the cementing of ties between the two countries, which would lead them to much failure in their battles against Israel.
Syria, with its strong pan-Arab sentiment, was a natural proponent of such a union. Nasser had become an iconic leader across the Arab world following his defiance of Western powers during the 1956 Suez Crisis, bolstering his popularity in Syria.
The Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party emerged as one of the most vocal advocates for this merger, reflecting the broader aspirations for Arab solidarity and unification.
Although the Syrian front was largely quiet for the first four days of the Six Day War, Syrian artillery began shelling northern Israel, and twelve Syrian jets attacked Israeli settlements in the Galilee.
Israel responded with military force, and by June 10, the IDF concluded its final military operation in the Golan Heights; a ceasefire agreement followed the next day.
As a result of the war in the North, Israel captured the Golan Heights, and an estimated 100,000 fled the region into Syria and neighboring Lebanon. The Golan Heights also provided Israel with an increased buffer zone against Syria.
The Assads
The Arab defeat in the Six Day War provoked a furious response inside Syria, with increased tensions between the civilian and military leadership over who was responsible for the loss of the Golan Heights.
In a 1970 coup d’etat in the country, Defense Minister Hafez Assad, an Alawite from Qardahah, ousted de facto strongman Salah Jadid and took power, beginning the rule of the Assad clan until its fall this weekend.
On October 6, 1973, Syria and Egypt responded to their humiliation of ‘67 by invading Israel on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar – Yom Kippur. In a shock attack, Syrian forces invaded Israel and made territorial gains in the Golan Heights.
After three days, Israel had pushed most of the Syrians back to the Purple Line, the ceasefire line from the Six Day War. Israel then launched a counteroffensive into Syria, shelling the outskirts of Damascus with IDF troops stationed only 30 km. from the Syrian capital.
Syria lost some 3,000 troops in its third major war with Israel.
The US-brokered 1974 disengagement agreement, facilitated by former secretary of state Henry Kissinger, marked a significant moment in Syrian-Israeli relations. Syria recovered some lost territory, including Quneitra, as part of this agreement.
UN forces have monitored its implementation since. Kissinger also played a role in delivering a list of Israeli prisoners of war held by Syria, helping to pave the way for a prisoner exchange and troop disengagement in the northern theater.
In December 1981, the Knesset passed legislation applying Israeli law to the portion of the Golan Heights under its control. This move was met with international criticism, and the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution urging Israel to revoke the decision.
The following year, in 1982, Israel launched an invasion of southern Lebanon aimed at expelling the PLO. Syrian forces joined the conflict in support of Lebanon but faced significant defeats by Israeli forces. Despite this, Syria maintained its backing for Lebanese terror groups, a dynamic that persisted until the IDF’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
During the 1990s peace talks, Syria demanded that Israel withdraw to the pre-1967 borders. Despite these efforts, the territorial dispute over the Golan Heights persists.
Syria’s attempts to reclaim the Golan during the 1973 Yom Kippur War were unsuccessful, aside from recovering limited areas through the 1974 agreement, which required Syrian forces to pull back even further from their previous positions.
In June 2000, Hafez Assad died, and his son Bashar took the reins of power, formally taking the role of president in July of that year.
The younger Assad had no intentions or aspirations of improved relations with Israel. In 2006, Syria threatened to enter the Second Lebanon War on the side of Hezbollah, to which it continuously provided support, and allowed the Iranians to use Syria as a route to ship supplies to the Lebanese terror group.
This continued through 2024, as Israel has routed Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, attacked Iranian proxies in Syria, and dealt the Islamic Republic a blow by attacking its oil infrastructure.
Despite a lack of any ties, Israel did provide some assistance during the Syrian Civil War, which began when demonstrations began against Assad’s presidency in 2011 and then erupted into military campaigns, lasting well over a decade.
Humanitarian aid provided to Syrians became a focus of the Israelis, and in June 2016, the IDF began Operation Good Neighbor, a humanitarian relief operation to provide aid to Syrians who live along the border and provide basic or advanced medical treatment.
There have also been several small agreements to allow members of the Druze community who live in the Golan Heights to enter Israel and Syria for both business and familial reasons.
Israel will be watching the consequences of Assad’s fall closely. Not only has an enemy regime fallen, but observers will be keen to note how any replacement government, whether Islamist or not, deals with the Jewish State as its neighbor.
Iran’s role in Syria will have been severely undermined due to Assad’s fall, as will the provisions it can provide to Hezbollah through the country. Israeli politicians, meanwhile, have been using the regime change to signify an opportunity to create a new regional alliance, one that has never existed since Israel came into being in 1948.