Donald Trump assumes his second term as president of the United States following tectonic changes in the Middle East that will shape the future of the region for generations to come.
A year and three months after the Hamas attack on southern Israel, the terror group’s military wing has been pummeled, the bulk of Hezbollah’s military capability has been destroyed, and the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed. Iran’s “axis of resistance” is at its weakest point for the past 30 years.
Israel is eagerly anticipating the upcoming Trump administration, believing that the regional changes have opened up unprecedented possibilities to reshape the Middle East. However, Trump remains unpredictable in the extreme and somewhat of a maverick, making any predictions unwise.
Gaza and the hostages
The most pressing issue that remains is securing a Gaza ceasefire and a hostage release deal. Some 100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.
Trump made it clear that he wanted the hostages held in Gaza freed before he was sworn in on January 20, warning that if they are not released, there will be “all hell to pay,” without elaborating. However, sealing the deal before the January inauguration deadline appears increasingly unlikely, despite earlier optimism that the “Trump factor” may have pushed the sides over the line.
Some Israeli officials think that if a deal isn’t struck, the incoming president could support Israeli measures that the Biden administration opposed, such as limiting humanitarian aid to Gaza.
It is far from clear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s postwar vision of Gaza – which includes an open-ended military presence in the territory – is acceptable to Trump.
Iran and its nuclear program
Another issue at the top of the agenda is Iran. The Israeli counter-attack on Iran on October 26, following the second missile attack by the regime against Israel earlier that month, dealt a severe blow to Iran’s air defense system and its ballistic missile production capabilities. This leaves Tehran’s nuclear sites exposed to additional attacks. The fall of the Assad regime and the Israeli attacks which destroyed Syrian air defense batteries cleared the skies for potential airstrikes against Iran.
Israel Katz, soon after he became defense minister in November, said the diplomatic, operational and tactical situation for attacking Iran’s nuclear program has never been more realistic or likely.
“There is an opportunity to achieve the most important goal – to thwart and remove the threat of destruction hanging over Israel. And there is an understanding that this is achievable – not only on the security front but also on the diplomatic front,” he said.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said, “The most important question by far, for the future of this region, for the security of Israel, is to avoid Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon,” adding that the issue has been top of the agenda in talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President-elect Trump.
“Trump made it clear during the time of his electoral campaign that he understands very well the dangers of that nuclear Iranian project. I’m sure that we will be able to work together to stabilize the region in order to guarantee the future of the region,” said Sa’ar.
“Anything could happen,” Trump said in an interview with Time magazine, noting the possibility that the US could go to war with Iran, partly because Tehran had plotted to assassinate him. “It’s a very explosive situation,” he said.
After Trump decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, and especially since 2020, Tehran has reportedly accelerated the pace of its nuclear development and has been considered a nuclear threshold state for at least the past two years.
Despite Iranian claims that the country has no interest in acquiring nuclear weapons, according to international reports Tehran has already amassed enough enriched uranium to make several bombs.
According to the American news website Axios, outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan drew up potential options for a US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities which would occur if Tehran were to move forward with their nuclear weapon production before the January 20 inauguration.
Despite the rare bipartisan consensus in Washington against Iran’s obtaining a nuclear bomb, the prevailing assessment remains that Trump would prefer to negotiate a new nuclear agreement rather than launch military strikes against Iran.
Trump’s transition team is formulating what it calls a “Maximum Pressure 2.0″ strategy against the Iranian regime, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
One approach, as described by two sources familiar with the plan, involves increasing military pressure by deploying additional US forces, fighter jets, and ships to the Middle East. The US may also sell advanced weapons to Israel, including bunker-buster bombs that would enhance its capability to disable Iranian nuclear facilities.
However, any military action is still likely to be a last resort. Trump remains firmly opposed to dragging the US military into a Middle East war. Iranian sources indicate that the Trump team has already conveyed a willingness to engage in direct talks and potentially forge a new nuclear agreement and has given Iran a few months to respond positively.
Jewish settlers and West Bank sovereignty
Jewish settlers believe that the incoming administration represents a unique opportunity to extend Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria. The president-elect’s appointments of avowedly pro-Israel figures to key positions in his upcoming administration have only raised expectations.
During his first term as president, Trump adopted policies largely favorable to Netanyahu. He broke with longstanding US policy to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem over Palestinian objections; he recognized Israel’s claim to the Golan Heights, which the international community considers occupied Syrian territory; and he turned a blind eye to settlement construction in the West Bank.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the Trump administration, ended Israel’s diplomatic isolation in much of the Arab world, allowing Israel to forge links with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, and Sudan without concessions on the Palestinian question.
Eagerly anticipating the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Israeli settler leaders have drawn up an ambitious master plan to cement their rule over the disputed biblical land.
The action plan includes building four new cities, a massive expansion of energy and transportation infrastructure, and the de facto dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, blurring the border between Israel proper and the land that was captured in the 1967 Six Day War.
Settlers were delighted with the appointment of Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as the next US ambassador to Israel. The evangelical preacher stated unequivocally that “there is no such thing” as the West Bank and that Israelis have “a rightful deed” to the land.
“Trump’s victory brings an important opportunity for Israel,” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, head of the far-right Religious Zionist Party, who also controls West Bank civilian affairs. “During Trump’s first term, we were on the verge of applying sovereignty over the settlements. Now the time has come to make it a reality,” he said.
The action plan drawn up by the Yesha settlers’ council and Avichai Buaron, a lawmaker from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party, calls for expanding the jurisdiction of West Bank settler councils to take control of all the land in areas B and C – land that is under full or partial Israeli control, including Palestinian villages.
“If we use this window of opportunity wisely, we will create conditions for turning Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley into an inseparable part of Israel,” Buaron said, using the biblical name for the West Bank. “The two-state solution needs to be taken off the table permanently.”
Abraham Accords and normalization with Saudi Arabia
Both Netanyahu and Trump seek to extend the Abraham Accords, and the ultimate prize of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia beckons.
However, progress on this track would likely require Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians, and there is fierce opposition to even a mention of Palestinian statehood within Netanyahu’s coalition, including from the Likud ranks.
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said there will be no normalization with Israel without a clear path to Palestinian independence. Even if Netanyahu and Trump can come up with a vague formula on this thorny question that is also acceptable to Riyadh, it is unlikely that Benjamin Netanyahu would be willing to risk the stability of his government, particularly as polls indicate a majority for the opposition parties.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s closest confidant, has reportedly been engaged in contacts with the Trump team and the Saudis on a revised “deal of the century” that embraces normalization and a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that includes much-needed financial support from the kingdom for the massive postwar reconstruction effort in the coastal enclave.
The Saudis are likely to obtain a new defense pact and the sale of cutting-edge American weapons systems as part of the deal. Only after January 20 will it become clear if these contacts to remold the Middle East will come to fruition. ■