Iranian officials flocked to Beirut for the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah this past week. Before leaving Lebanon, Iranian IRNA state media said that “Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with [Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem] on the last day of their trip to Beirut.”
This is important because it shows how Tehran still has great expectations for Hezbollah, which has been defanged to some extent by Israel during two months of fighting from September to November 2024.
Nasrallah’s funeral was expected to be a show of force for Hezbollah, as it brought together pro-Iranian supporters from all over the region, including what Hezbollah media estimated was 200,000 Iraqis who went to Lebanon. Qassem delivered a half-hour, prerecorded speech that was broadcast at the funeral.
Nasrallah was killed on September 27, 2024, and his successor Hashem Safieddine met the same fate the following month. They were both buried at the funeral. Qassem said that Hezbollah would continue its “resistance” and even bragged that Hezbollah would do so at the risk of their own lives.
Will Hezbollah be able to recover from the blows it received?
Is Qassem arguing that Hezbollah will try to recover and rebuild its arsenal to strike at Israel in the future?
At the moment, it is not clear. The Iranian leaders who went to Beirut for the funeral also met with Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Beirut. He was wounded in the pager operation last September. The Iranians also met with Lebanon’s new President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
IRNA noted that “Ghalibaf hailed the historic funeral of the resistance icons, saying the ceremony displayed the cohesion and strength of Hezbollah and sent a message to the world that resistance against Israeli tyranny, occupation, and atrocities is an ideology that cannot be destroyed through assassination.”
Ghalibaf also said he supports Lebanon’s security, stability, and progress, and called for unity among the Lebanese government, parliament, and resistance.
Hezbollah faces many challenges. It has funding problems following the war. Not only did it lose numerous commanders and fighters and also parts of its arsenal, it can’t pay its members. This is a major headache for the organization at the moment.
ISRAEL CONTINUES to show that it will target Hezbollah members who threaten it and is also continuing to hold five strategic locations near the border. Hezbollah has showed it is willing to enforce its mafia-like control in other areas of Lebanon. It attacked a UN convoy near Beirut International Airport recently. It is seeking to return to areas in southern Lebanon.
Arab News noted about Hezbollah that “even now, it remains Lebanon’s most powerful armed entity, seen by its critics as undermining the state’s sovereignty while blaming external actors for its challenges”.
The group’s financial troubles may weaken it in the long term, but for now, its grip on Lebanon’s security landscape appears as firm as ever.”
The main challenge for Hezbollah now will be to return to southern Lebanon and rebuild its arsenal. This could take years. However, Hezbollah has been in this position before.
After 2006, it had to rebuild its arsenal. At the time, it had around 13,000 projectiles, but by 2023, it had around 200,000 rockets, missiles, and drones.
The group likely still has between 10,000 and 20,000 rockets and other projectiles. It can also assemble its own drones. Hezbollah could take years to do this. It has lost support from the deposed al-Assad regime. However, it also had to back that regime with fighters during the Syrian civil war. This weakened Hezbollah to some extent.
With al-Assad gone, Hezbollah will need to find new smuggling routes. Israel’s airstrikes in southern Syria have now led to a new policy where Israel does not want the forces from the new government in Damascus to deploy in southern Syria.
It’s possible Hezbollah could exploit this vacuum in power to slither back into those areas. Hezbollah already has operatives there, likely as a result of the remnants of what was once called its “Golan file” when it operated near the region after 2018. Hezbollah may try to benefit from the Israeli airstrikes by trying to get the new government in Damascus to permit it to operate in southern Syria.
Hezbollah benefits from time. This is the goal. It wants to wait and see and slowly work on eroding the power of the new president and prime minister of Lebanon. Hezbollah also knows that Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud made a phone call to his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi last Wednesday, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Hezbollah will likely wait to see what comes out of those types of calls to see how it can benefit.