The protests that have rocked Gaza over the past week managed to maintain some momentum over the last several days. They took place during Ramadan and continued through the symbolic Laylat al-Qadr, which occurs toward the end of the month-long holiday.
It also continued through Friday, which is of significance because Fridays have additional importance during Ramadan, even above their usual weekly relevance. However, the protests have lacked focus and leadership, making it difficult for them to advance demands or put forward any kind of method of governance that might replace Hamas.
This is important. Hamas is able to hide underground and wait out the protests, as well as reorganize and target specific protesters who might emerge as leaders.
Hamas does not appear to feel under pressure. While the protests are unprecedented, Hamas does not seem open to concessions. In addition, the Arab states do not seem to be welcoming this opportunity for leadership change in Gaza.
Why are so few countries involved in working with the protesters or leveraging them? Many countries likely fear the street power of protesters more than they fear Hamas.
Countries such as Egypt have been accommodating to Hamas over the last several years. Countries such as Jordan may back the Palestinian Authority, but they don’t want protesters in their own country getting any ideas. Many countries saw the success of the Syrian revolution and how it led to the fall of the Assad regime, and they don’t want to end up like Bashar al-Assad.
Israeli views on the protests
Israel also seems skeptical of the protests. Some commentators online have spread conspiracies suggesting that the protests are actually run by Hamas. They also point out that the demonstrators are not calling for peace for Israel.When the bar is set so high for the protesters, it is unlikely they can ever please some voices in Israel. Israeli leaders have generally preferred Hamas running Gaza over the last decade and a half, to having the Palestinian Authority run Gaza.
If the protesters were able to topple Hamas, they would likely want new leadership in the form of working with the legitimate Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah.
Israel doesn’t see the protesters handing over hostages or disarming Hamas. Israel is still waging a new campaign in Gaza that began earlier this month and has so far been slow and relatively limited. It is similar to how Israel ran campaigns last year, going in slowly to nibble away at areas around the urban centers of Gaza.
Israel uses its technological advances to move slowly and make sure soldiers’ lives are not risked. Following the October 7 attack, 300,000 reservists were called up, and it’s clear many Israelis don’t look fondly on another year of reserve duty after serving for most of 2024.
In addition, the ruling government includes haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties who oppose service. This means Israel’s government is divided between wanting to lead a new campaign against Hamas and working with haredi parties that don’t want their children serving. This puts Israel between a rock and a hard place while soldiers and civilians are held hostage in Gaza.
For this reason, the protests in Gaza lack the ability to get to the next step that demonstrations need to reach in order to get real achievements. Since so few countries in the region benefit from the protests, they receive no support.
Additionally, the powerful backers of Hamas in Doha and Ankara do not back the protests. Therefore, some online commentators who back Hamas spread rumors against the demonstrators to undermine them.
Furthermore, since Hamas controls much of the media access in Gaza and only friendly media such as Al Jazeera get good access via Hamas, there is little coverage. Al Jazeera is based in Doha and only covers demonstrations in the region when Doha backs the protests. Doha prefers Hamas in charge of Gaza, and Hamas leaders live in Doha. The protesters are an inconvenience.
It’s not clear what comes next for the protests. They have surmounted some obstacles but many remain. They will require staying power, leadership, a focus for their demands, and also some support if they are to achieve the next steps.
Meanwhile, Israel has to weigh whether it will expand its operations in Gaza as the protests take place. It’s difficult to navigate an army amid demonstrations, and Israel prefers to evacuate Gazans, but it’s hard to evacuate protesters who want to be rid of Hamas.
This puts the protesters also between a rock and a hard place. If they are evacuated, they will likely stop protesting or potentially be squeezed into areas Hamas still dominates. They gained fuel when Hamas went underground on March 18 as Israel restarted its military campaign. Now they face a crossroads.