As the US positions aircraft in the Indian Ocean that could strike Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran is warning that if Washington acts then Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.
In essence, the Islamic Republic is saying that it has a right to develop all the components to build a bomb, and that if the US tries to stop it through action, then it will build a bomb because America did something to stop it building a bomb. This kind of Catch-22 is where Iran thrives in its use of the nuclear threat to get concessions and create chaos.
Ali Larijani, who serves as a key aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, made this Catch-22 warning on Monday. “If the US or Israel bomb Iran under the nuclear pretext, Iran will be compelled to move toward producing an atomic bomb,” Ali Larijani said.
He claimed that Iran is carrying out its nuclear program “under the supervision” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He said the country is not moving toward developing nuclear weapons. However, it is widely known that Iran has enriched uranium and stockpiled the enriched uranium, which is approaching the grade needed for nuclear weapons. Tehran has also increased the range and precision of its ballistic missiles. It might put a nuclear device on these missiles in the future.
Larijani is messaging the Trump administration. Iran has said it is open to indirect talks with the US. On Saturday, Trump warned that “there will be bombing” if Iran doesn’t come to make a deal with America. “If at any point you move toward bombing – whether by yourselves or by Israel – you will force Iran to make a different decision. That is not in your interest either, so however you calculate it, there’s no benefit in it for you,” Larijani noted.
This is the Catch-22 Iran wants to create. It began to develop many of the components of a nuclear program over the last several decades and has used this to get concessions with the West. At the same time, Tehran claims it is not developing nuclear weapons. It thus sets up a scenario where any attempt to prevent it building a nuclear weapon would then become an excuse for it to build one.
Meanwhile, the country continues to enrich uranium and also to increase its abilities in missile and other technologies that would aid nuclear weapon development.
Iran is setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy here. It is trying to claim that the only reason it might rush for nuclear weaponization is because it fears an attack. It then claims that if you try to prevent it doing so, then the prevention becomes the reason for it to build nuclear weapons.
In essence, Iran carves out a “right” to increase its potential nuclear capabilities and then claims a right to develop nuclear weapons if anyone tries to stop it from developing them. This is all carefully wrapped in a bait and switch, where Tehran claims it doesn’t want nuclear weapons. But if you try to stop it from making the thing it doesn’t want, then it will definitely want them.
Complex minefold
Iran is laying out a complex minefield for the US. If the US chooses to act then Iran will use that as an excuse to weaponize. Iran will ask Russia and China for support, pretending to be the victim. On the other hand, if the US or others don’t act, then Iran may walk up to the finish line of weaponization anyway. At that point, any attempt to prevent it will be very close to the point where it could be dangerous to carry out the preventative strikes.
Iran is doing nuclear brinkmanship and playing a dangerous game. It remains to be seen if the Trump team can find a way out of this catch-22.