Israel-Egypt relations are currently at their most tense since the outbreak of the war in October 2023, former intelligence officer and expert on Egypt, Lt. Col. (Res.) Eli Dekel told Maariv on Tuesday.
Concerns in Cairo about the potential collapse of the border with the Gaza Strip, the spillover of Gazans into Sinai, and the accumulation of Egyptian forces near the border have raised numerous questions in Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, a first-of-its-kind military exercise between Egypt and China, which included advanced Chinese fighter jets, managed to surprise even China itself, with the Defense Ministry in Beijing quickly taking pride in it publicly.
According to Dekel, Egypt’s military cooperation with China is not surprising, but rather part of a clear policy Cairo has followed for decades.
"Egypt has deliberately, for many years, tried not to depend on any single superpower. It does this intentionally, and it costs a lot in resources. It buys weapons from everyone, and it strives to maintain military and political relations with many countries,” Dekel explained.
“All of this is to avoid a situation like the one it has faced four times in the past—where the United States 'turned off the taps' on it."
In this context, Dekel pointed to Israel's current dependence on American weapons supplies.
"In our last war, the United States didn't supply us with tractors. In the past, they didn't supply us with aircraft engines, and further back —no weapons at all. The United States plays with us because we're dependent on it, and it knows we're dependent on it. Egypt learned this lesson over the years—never to be dependent."
Dekel added that, even if the cooperation with China surprises some in Israel, it is a natural development for Cairo.
"Cairo purposefully maintains relations with the whole world—with anyone it can, anyone who has something to say, and anyone with a military and good weapons. Therefore, among other things, it conducts joint exercises with Russia.
“Even today, it conducts exercises with France, with England, and of course with America. And I am sadly aware of almost no exercises with China in the history of these relationships. I don't distinguish between the numerous exercises Egypt has held with Russia and the Soviet Union and those with China."
Dekel further noted that the Chinese arms market is not unfamiliar to Egypt, even though the US does not view it favorably.
Egypt's presence in the arms market
"As part of Egypt's ‘wanderings’ in the arms markets to create a situation of independence from the United States, it has also bought weapons from China over the years, despite knowing that the US does not like this. It knows the US funds it with a kind of annual grant of three billion dollars, yet it still buys weapons."
According to Dekel, Egypt recently purchased advanced electronic warfare systems from China, including four active batteries, alongside other weapons that may not be publicly known. But Egypt's ties with China go beyond security.
"China has also gained a special status in Egypt in recent years, since [Egyptian President Abdel Fattah] Al-Sisi came to power. China succeeded in 'pushing its foot' in and securing a significant place in Al-Sisi's policies. In fact, it is China that is building Egypt's new capital city—intended to be an international gem in beauty, architecture, wealth, and grandeur," he explained.
"The main contractor is China. This is one example of the 'pushing the foot'. China is not only building the new capital city—which can be said to be Al-Sisi's most important project—but also building at least two very important, large ports in Egypt, in Abu Qir. China has a lot of involvement, so I'm not surprised they are conducting this exercise."
Regarding the Chinese fighter jets that participated in the joint exercise, Dekel claimed it could also be an Egyptian tactic ahead of future acquisitions.
"For several years now, Egypt has wanted to expand its Air Force. I think it is playing a kind of game aimed at raising financial demands from all those offering it aircraft. It is in long negotiations with France to buy Rafale jets, but at the same time, it is negotiating with Italy for similar planes, and now it's conducting the same negotiation with China, for stealth aircraft.
"I think this is part of a commercial deal to show others—you're not the only ones in the market, lower the prices—and then they will ultimately decide on something. I guess in the end, they will go with the French jets, but that’s more of a guess. This is part of the deal."
Dekel concluded by saying he did not view the exercise with China as an unusual or particularly concerning step, but rather a continuation of an ongoing policy.
"I’m not surprised by the combined exercise. Egypt conducts exercises with almost every superpower—except Israel."