Iran and the US appear to be headed toward a fifth round of nuclear talks in the coming days or weeks. This raises the question: Are these negotiations nearing a decisive conclusion, or are the parties involved en route to a period of playing chicken to see which side might make more concessions first under the threat of the talks imploding?
It is clear that each side made progress in the four earlier rounds of talks, both in terms of building goodwill and discussing technical details that could lead to a resolution.
The US has expressed readiness to lift all sanctions and possibly even engage in joint ventures and investments, such as becoming involved in the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
Tehran had indicated that it might agree to freeze and backtrack its nuclear achievements.
Essentially, while it currently has sufficient enriched uranium to the 60% level for several potential nuclear weapons and thousands of advanced centrifuges, two major achievements it lacked when the EU’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal was sealed, Iran indicated that it is ready to walk back these accomplishments.
In other words, Tehran will reenter “the JCPOA box” where it can only enrich uranium to the 3.67% level, and give up most or all of the 60%-level enriched uranium.
Also, it appears that the Islamic Republic is ready to permit IAEA inspectors back into areas that it kicked them out of, or to add American nuclear inspectors.
No discussion on Iran nuclear concessions, stopping uranium enrichment
No one has said anything about Iran disclosing its past nuclear dimensions, which would be part of intercepting aspects of its weapons program beyond the uranium enrichment one.
Other than one statement very early in the negotiations, there has also been little discussion of the Islamic Republic making concessions regarding its ballistic missile program, which can potentially have dual uses with both conventional and nuclear weapons.
So the real sticking issue is whether Tehran will be willing to completely freeze its uranium enrichment for some symbolic period.
US officials appeared to have leaked the option of Iran committing to a complete freeze in uranium enrichment for three years, followed by a longer period of limited enrichment at the 3.67% level, similar to the JCPOA limits.
In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened to scuttle the talks in the harshest tone from Iran since they started.
WHAT IS bizarre about the current standoff is that both sides are desperate for a deal, even with the major discrepancies still at play.
US President Donald Trump has talked tough, but after turning up the heat on the much weaker Yemeni Houthis for a few months, he dropped the issue without even getting them to stop firing at Israel.
It was sufficient that the Houthis said that they would not target American ships.
Trump does not want to participate in an attack on Iran.
All of the Sunni allies he met in recent days – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar – are all terrified of Iran, with the Saudis having been hit hard by it and its proxies in 2019.
Further, Trump likes to do business and is anti-war, especially after he saw in his first term that he boxed in Iran somewhat, but never succeeded at stopping it from enriching uranium.
So what would stop Trump from conceding low levels of uranium enrichment to Khamenei, particularly after his envoy Steve Witkoff hinted at this at the start of the talks?
Alternatively, once criticism of such a concession by Israel and many Republicans arose, Trump and Witkoff started to sound a tougher line on uranium enrichment.
Likewise, Iran is terrified that Israel may attack its nuclear facilities, which are at the most exposed level they have been in 20 years, given that Israel already took out its best S-300 anti-aircraft systems on October 26, 2024.
Khamenei is also missing his retaliatory option from Hezbollah and Hamas, as each of these proxies is on the run from Jerusalem.
This fifth round of negotiations could therefore be a decisive point in negotiations where one or both sides make concessions they might not have dreamed of in order to avoid a failure of the talks.
Or, we could see some weeks or months of a staring contest in which each side hopes the other will blink first.
There is no real deadline in May, after Trump already blew through his first 60-day deadline last week.
The real deadline is closer to mid-October, when the European countries from the JCPOA might need to activate the snapback global sanctions mechanism or let it expire.
But the clock is ticking on resolving this region-shaping nuclear standoff.