“Iran is drying up,” Dr. Sharona Mazalian Levi from The Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University affirmed, painting a grim picture of what she described as one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing the Islamic Republic today.
“Iran is facing an unprecedented water crisis that threatens the nation’s stability,” Mazalian Levi said. She explained that multiple factors have converged to create this critical situation, with several major provinces now reaching what she deemed “a tipping point.”
Has Iran reached the tipping point in its water crisis? A thread It’s no secret that Iran is drying up. For years, the country has been facing a severe and widespread water crisis, but recently it has reached its peak: prolonged water outages >> pic.twitter.com/5wX5EG1LL0
- Sharona Mazalian (@SharonaMazalian) March 27, 2025
According to Mazalian Levi, the Iranian Energy Ministry declared last week that the provinces of Tehran, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, and Yazd are facing a severe water crisis. She highlighted the alarming state of the Karaj Dam, which supplies water to millions in Tehran and the surrounding areas.
“The Karaj Dam is now at only 6% of its capacity,” she noted, referencing reports from Tasnim news agency that 94% of the reservoir is empty. “This isn’t just an environmental issue; it’s a potential catalyst for civil unrest and disorder that could lead to national instability.”
Two of the main catalysts for the crisis are what Mazalian Levi named “poor management of the water sector,” as well as a population growth of more than 250% in only 50 years. “This includes over-extraction from natural water sources and aquifers to the point of depletion,” she added.
However, Mazalian Levi traced the origins of the crisis further back in history. According to the researcher, following the 1979 revolution, Iran found itself internationally isolated and was forced to develop an autarkic economic system. Religious leaders, including then-supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini, encouraged citizens to embrace farming and agriculture as a way of life, drawing from texts regarding the Prophet Muhammad himself.
“This agricultural push significantly increased water usage at a time when the country was still relying on outdated and inefficient irrigation technologies,” she explained. “Simultaneously, Iran experienced tremendous population growth, from approximately 37 million on the eve of the revolution to around 90 million today.”
Mazalian Levi also pointed out that the influx of millions of undocumented Afghani migrants has further strained resources, creating an exponential rise in demand for water. Urban migration has compounded the problem, with rural residents moving to major cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj, placing even greater pressure on urban water supplies.
“The most important river in Afghanistan, the Helmand, flows into Iran,” Mazalian Levi explained.
“According to a 1973 agreement, the Afghans pledged to transfer around 820 million cubic meters of water to neighboring Iran yearly (with an option to lower the quantities in case of water scarcity). However, recently, the Afghan government violated the agreement and blocked the flow to the Islamic Republic, which intensified the already tense relations between the Shi’ite and Sunni neighbors,” the Iran expert added.
Social upheaval and frustration
The consequences of these developments are being felt across Iranian society. Mazalian Levi described a dire situation where authorities deliberately cut off water supply lines, often for extended periods and without prior notice.
“People are left with murky water and even mud coming out of their taps,” she said, citing video evidence from the city of Ahvaz. “Water tankers are being dispatched across the country, medical teams find themselves preparing for surgery without water, and household activities are disrupted without warning.”
She shared an example from a news report about a frustrated resident in the city of Pardis in Tehran Province who complained that water flows through taps for only two hours per day.
The agricultural sector has been hit particularly hard. Farmers are being forced to abandon water-intensive crops like wheat and rice in favor of varieties more suited to drought conditions. Many are giving up farming altogether and migrating to cities in search of alternative employment.
“Crop variety is shrinking, and the country’s food security is being undermined,” Mazalian Levi warned. “There are real shortages of fruits, vegetables, legumes, grains, and oils, leading to rising food prices and increased dependence on imported food.”
This dependence is especially problematic given the hyperinflation Iran has experienced in recent years, making imported food prices increasingly volatile and unaffordable for many Iranians.
Nature directly affected
Another actor directly affected by the water crisis in Iran is nature itself, as demonstrated by Lake Urmia, a salty lake located in northwestern Iran between the provinces of West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan.
According to Mazalian Levi, in the past, the lake was one of the largest salt lakes in the world and the largest in the Middle East at about 5,700 square kilometers. However, according to estimates, its area is now less than 1,000 sq.km.
“Over the past few decades, Lake Urmia has experienced significant drying, which has led to a drastic decrease in its size,” Mazalian Levi explained.
“The reasons for this are varied. First, the country has built many dams on the rivers and streams that flow into the lake for the benefit of the agricultural and irrigation industries in the region and industrial plants. In this way, the diversion of water sources has reduced the amount of water flowing into the lake."
“Secondly, climate change and the decrease in precipitation have also reduced the amount of water reaching the lake. Thirdly, over-pumping of groundwater and salt in the area for the production of industrial salt and food [has impacted the water level].”
According to Mazalian Levi, the drying up of Lake Urmia has also damaged the regional ecosystem that existed there.
“The lake was an important and central habitat for a wide variety of animals, including Persian ibex, goats, sheep, fish with special tolerance to the salty environment of the water, birds such as pelicans, ducks, flamingos, and more” the researcher elaborated. “Some of the unique animals became extinct or disappeared from the regional landscape, and the diversity of the fauna has decreased dramatically.”
However, this was not the only damage; it also affected the residents of the area. The decrease in the water level has brought with it new phenomena that have made it difficult for the residents of the area, such as salt and dust storms, which cause respiratory diseases and burning eyes.
“Local tourism and fishing have also been affected. Over the past decade, the Iranian government has promised to restore the lake, but this is a very complex challenge. Dams have been opened to restore natural flow to the lake, but this does not seem to be enough to turn the tide.”
Finally, Mazalian Levi emphasized that water – the most fundamental source of life – has become a critical factor that could determine Iran’s future stability and resilience. The government’s appeals for water conservation appear to have had limited impact in a society where, as she put it, “It’s every person for themselves in the face of this escalating crisis.”