Iran is becoming increasingly concerned that nuclear talks with the US will collapse.
The message coming from Tehran and other observers is that Iran went into the talks with some suspicion, divided between the optimism that underpinned the Iranian president’s approach and the pessimism that underpinned the supreme leader’s views of the same talks.
For this reason, Iran insisted on “indirect” talks in Oman, which soon moved to Italy and then back to Oman.
Oman is the host country, and it played a key role in the ceasefire that ended the US airstrikes on the Houthis. However, after initial success in April, the talks in May have hit a wall. It is not clear if things can be salvaged this week.
US President Donald Trump is heading to the Gulf, and therefore, the talks come at a sensitive time. Trump and his special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, could suddenly pull a rabbit out of a hat and proceed in a way that is acceptable to Iran.
Alternatively, recent messaging from Washington has spoken about dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and preventing enrichment. Iran will not accept these terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, Iran “has declared the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden and has always been a committed member of the international nonproliferation regime. But, at the same time, it insists on its right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy, including enrichment.”
He made this statement at a conference in Doha, which is very friendly toward Iran, and Doha also enjoys close ties with the West. It would prefer that the Iran deal move forward.
“We are not seeking nuclear weapons, and weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran’s security doctrine. That is why we were among the initiators of creating a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the West Asian region,” Iran’s top diplomat said.
“It is necessary for Western countries and all those who claim to oppose nuclear weapons to refrain from double standards,” he added. “We cannot claim to be concerned about the peaceful nuclear energy of Iran and other countries in the region, but allow an occupying, aggressor, and genocidal regime to possess a large arsenal of nuclear weapons.”
Iran looks for other avenues to secure nuclear security amid US talks
Iran hinted that it was balancing talks with the US with its own discussions with Europe, Russia, and China.
Araghchi also met with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.
“During the meeting on Saturday, the two officials addressed key diplomatic issues and explored ways to enhance cooperation in tackling regional and international challenges,” the IRNA said.
This is noteworthy because it comes ahead of Trump also coming to the region and meeting with Gulf leaders.
After stopping in Saudi Arabia, the top Iranian diplomat headed for Doha, where he made the comments about the Iranian nuclear talks.
TEHRAN IS already drawing up scenarios for possible “failure” in the talks, Al-Ain media in the UAE reported on Sunday. This report noted that the previous round of talks scheduled to take place in Rome on May 3 had been postponed.
On May 4, the Houthis launched a long-range missile that struck near Ben-Gurion Airport. Israel also approved plans for a new operation in Gaza on that same day.
Then, on May 5 and 6, Israel carried out strikes in Yemen, and the US announced a ceasefire in Yemen, illustrating how fast things are moving.
An Iranian official told CNN: “The indirect talks with the United States, which aim to address Tehran’s nuclear program and lift sanctions, are not serious on the American side and were likely designed from the beginning to be a trap to drag the situation toward tension.”
This depicts how Iran is preparing for a possible train wreck.
Tehran thinks it is being played. It watches the media interviews with US officials and the differing statements from Washington, and its assessment has gone from optimism in mid-April to deep pessimism today.
Iran thinks that the US is not actually ready to discuss technical issues related to the program.
Tehran also may believe this is a setup to create a pretext for failure to justify a conflict. Iran’s regime believes Israel and pro-Israel voices are trying to sabotage the talks, a point that Iran’s foreign minister made last week as he headed for Pakistan.
Indeed, Iran likely views Islamabad as a model for how to possess nuclear weapons and deter adversaries.
Iran, like Pakistan, is a friend of China. Tehran likely saw how Pakistan was able to get the US to press for a ceasefire and how Pakistan used the conflict to its benefit.
Iran may be friendly with India, but it learns tactics and strategy from Islamabad as well.
Iranian sources said to US media that “the United States provides brief, general answers to questions and ignores key proposals. This situation has led Iran to conclude that negotiations are unlikely to yield the desired outcome of sanctions relief and economic benefits.”
“As a result,” the sources added, “Tehran has been preparing the necessary scenarios over the past month.”
Uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is a red line for Iran in the negotiations, the CNN report noted.
Iran is likely concerned that Witkoff’s messaging appears to have changed. He has hardened his stance, according to recent reports.
Iran will not dismantle its enrichment facilities. What might come next? Iran will want to see if it can get to the next stage of technical talks.
If not, then Iran may move away from an agreement and see if its friends in other countries can speak to the US.
Tehran likely knows that the Trump administration does not want to get involved in another war. However, Iran also wants sanctions relief.