Countries in the Middle East went to bed last Thursday hoping that a meeting scheduled for Sunday between the US and Iran in Oman could reduce tensions that had escalated during the week.

The region felt it might have dodged a bullet on Wednesday and Thursday after reports emerged that the US was withdrawing State Department personnel from Iraq and the Gulf.

US President Donald Trump’s comments about a deal with Iran and reports that the US likely would be displeased by an Israeli attack, or let Israel go it alone, made it seem that de-escalation was more likely than war.

It turns out that instead of great expectations, the region may have gotten the sum of all fears.

Just after 3 am, air-raid sirens sounded across Israel, and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a preemptive strike against Iran was taking place. His office said a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population was expected.

The reported strike of an IDF strike in Iran, June 13, 2025. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)
The reported strike of an IDF strike in Iran, June 13, 2025. (credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)
Israel and Iran traded blows last year. In two instances, Iran sent hundreds of missiles and drones to attack Israel. Israel also retaliated in limited precision strikes against Iran’s air-defense systems.

This was a curtain-raiser for the capabilities of both countries. Israel has shown it can launch airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen more than 2,000 kilometers away.

The region knows Israel has these capabilities. Nevertheless, Iran has also said it could retaliate against the US or in other ways. That has put the US on alert in the Gulf and caused concern in Iraq.

Iranian proxies have weakened 

Iran has proxies in Iraq – a group of militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces. It also has the Houthis in Yemen.Its other proxies, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, are much weaker than in the past due to the war in Gaza and Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah last year.

Nevertheless, Iran has many capabilities. It also has friends such as Russia and China, which don’t want to see Iran weakened or humiliated.

Iran was expected to go into Sunday’s meeting with its head held high. It was angry about a resolution at the e International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and had threatened to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

It also said it would establish a new facility for its nuclear program. This appeared to be more Iranian bluffing and claims than reality, because Tehran prefers a deal and sanctions relief.

Iran doesn’t want a war. Its regime has always sought to avoid a direct conflict because it felt it could be harmed internally.

Tehran had grown bolder since the October 7 massacre, however, sensing an opportunity for a multifront war against Israel. That is why it felt it could respond to an Israeli airstrike in Damascus in March 2024 by launching a direct attack against Israel.

It felt it could do the same in October 2024. Iran grew overly aggressive and arrogant, even though the regime usually accuses others of arrogance.

BY 2025, things had changed. With US President Donald Trump back in office, Iran was more cautious. It sensed an opportunity for a new dawn of relations with the US.

The US was also in talks with Russia and dealing with a Gaza ceasefire. Tehran felt it might be time to get a deal, and it entered talks with the US in April and May.

Five rounds of talks took place. Iran was concerned that it wouldn’t get to keep its enrichment capabilities, however, which was something it believed was important.

Iran has hoped that there might be daylight between the US and Israel. It read news reports about Trump’s talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and that the US didn’t want Israel to strike Iran.

It felt that while Israel might be playing the “bad cop,” Iran could likely get the US to agree to a deal.

Iran believed this time wasn’t a replay of 2015, and that it was in a different position now – weaker in some ways because of the loss of its proxies, but stronger in other ways due to increased Russian and Chinese ties.

This is the situation that led to the early hour of last Friday.

Countries in the Middle East have taken a wait-and-see approach. They hoped that Trump could get a deal done. The Gulf countries hosted Trump in May, and they likely sent a message that they want stability.

They also have seen how Trump has embraced ties with Syria. They believed that the US might be able to ratchet down tensions and call off Israel’s attack.

It appears now that the calculations in the Gulf and elsewhere were wrong. The question they will be asking is whether these airstrikes can lead to de-escalation, or if Iran will lash out and respond across the region.

Iran likely knows that it is better to tailor its response. It has positive ties with Qatar and has improved ties with Saudi Arabia.

Iran’s foreign minister was also in Oslo this week, and he has been reaching out to Egypt and other countries in the region. Tehran wants to portray Israel as stoking the crisis, while claiming it is a victim.

Iran also saw the UN vote last Thursday in which almost every country called for a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza War, and only a handful of countries voted with Israel.

Israel has lost some support from European countries and others. The long war in Gaza is not popular. Trump has tried to end that war and has sought an Iran deal.

Iran will now feel it is at a crossroads in terms of how to respond. The region will feel it is sitting on a kind of volcano – one that it hoped would stay dormant.