As we speak, the Iranian nuclear threat is growing by the hour. Decision-makers in the United States and Europe are increasingly alarmed as Iran is using the distraction created by the Gaza war to enrich uranium at 90%. Everyone knows that no civilian nuclear program requires enrichment at such a high level. Therefore, it is greatly feared that Iran will soon have a nuclear weapon that will threaten Israel, America, Europe, and the entire free world.
The question is: How can we best topple Iran’s nuclear program? The answer is regime change instigated by Iran’s ethnic minorities.
The suffering of Iran's ethnic minorities
Iran’s ethnic minorities have every imaginable reason to rebel. After Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish girl, was brutally murdered for protesting against Iran’s repressive hijab laws, Iran’s ethnic groups have been united in seeking more autonomy and freedom from the central government in Tehran. These groups are outraged that the Iranian regime represses the Azerbaijani, Kurdish, Baloch, and Arabic languages in regions of Iran populated by Iran’s ethnic minorities.
Furthermore, all of these ethnic groups have suffered from environmental terrorism waged by the regime in Tehran. One brutal example is the plight of Lake Urmia in South Azerbaijan, which is in danger of drying up due to Persian ecological terror. As a result, the South Azerbaijanis, over the past year, have not only protested against such ecological terror and for the release of prisoners but also have sought independence from the mullah’s regime. The South Azerbaijani community, like all of Iran’s ethnic groups, has suffered due to Iran’s brutal repression of dissent.
Iran executed 834 people last year, the highest number since 2015. This represents a 43% increase from the previous year. “Instilling societal fear is the regime’s only way to hold on to power, and the death penalty is its most important instrument,” said IHR (Norway-based Iran Human Rights) director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam.
“The Islamic Republic’s violent repression of peaceful dissent and severe discrimination against women and girls in Iran have been confirmed as constituting nothing short of crimes against humanity,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). “The government’s brutal crackdown on the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protests has seen a multitude of atrocities that include extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape. These violations disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society – women, children, and minority groups,” he added.
Dr. Sarang Zeynizadeh, an Azerbaijani human rights activist based in the United States, proclaimed: “Azerbaijani Turks, concentrated mainly in the oil-poor northwest of Iran (along the border with Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan), make up an estimated one-fourth of Iran’s population of 70 million. Azerbaijanis often claim a population share close to 40 percent, a number that includes ethnic brethren such as the Turkmen, Qashqais, and other Turkic-speaking groups.”
If the South Azerbaijanis alone rebel against the regime in Tehran, it will be a fatal blow to the mullahs. If, on the other hand, they unite with the Kurds, Baloch, Ahwaz, and other ethnic minorities and fight for regime change, the mullahs will be finished and their nuclear program relegated to the dustbins of history. Therefore, if the international community cares about bringing a quick halt to Iran’s nuclear program, they should be doing everything needed to prop up all of Iran’s ethnic minorities who seek to secede from the regime and create independent ethnic states in what is currently Iran.
Once that happens, the threat of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the dozens of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen will be quickly diminished, and the prospects for Israel and the entire Middle East living in peace and security will greatly increase. Independent ethnic states will have closer relations with the West, Russia will lose its arms supplier, and China will have to change its policies vis-à-vis the West, which will have good relations with the Arab state of Ahwaz, the source of Iranian oil and gas.
In conclusion, after the collapse of the Iranian conglomerate and the emergence of five to six ethnic states from its ruins – just like happened in the former Soviet Union, when Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia separated into individual, peaceful ethnic countries –the world will be a better and safer place.
The writer is a prominent Middle East scholar and commentator.