In the first few days of May 1945, rumors swirled across Europe regarding the fate of Germany’s leader, Adolf Hitler. Was he killed in his bunker? Was he captured by the Soviet Union and taken back to Moscow? Or did he escape unnoticed across the Alps and make his way to Argentina in a submarine, as one of the more outlandish theories suggested?
The weekend felt somewhat like that on a much smaller scale with the news that the IDF had targeted Mohammed Deif, the head of the Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, which is the military wing of the Islamist organization Hamas.
There is still no official confirmation concerning whether Deif was successfully eliminated. The primary evidence that Israel relies on includes aerial photographs of the strike site and the fact that the strike also killed Rafa’a Salameh, commander of the Khan Yunis Brigade, which was confirmed on Sunday by the IDF.
Details have emerged from the IDF, the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), and other defense officials, indicating multiple confirmations that Deif was present at the site of the attack. The size of the munition used suggests it would have been impossible for him to survive.
Some Israeli sources believe that Deif may have surfaced from the tunnels either for a brief respite, due to various health issues that make prolonged stays in the tunnels difficult, or because he assumed that ongoing hostage negotiations would afford him a temporary level of immunity.
Moreover, visual intelligence covered the scene before, during, and after the strike, showing no evidence that Deif had left the area.
Despite these indications, nobody has been recovered. The extensive damage caused by the giant bomb and the numerous Palestinian casualties make it uncertain whether an identifiable body can be found.
The risk involved in bringing the strike to public light
While striking down one of the top figures in Hamas, responsible for the deaths of over 1,000 Israelis, would rightly be lauded as a significant military target in the war against Hamas, the IDF and security officials have run the risk of bringing to public light an extremely sensitive strike without any confirmation of whether they have succeeded or not. That poses a problem.
The move has also brought several risks, including the lack of the necessary reward to confirm Deif’s death. If Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief and mastermind behind October 7, were testing the water, so to speak, by raising his brow above the tunnel line he has hidden beneath for several months, he would quickly retreat and review all his security directives to ensure even further safety from Israeli hands.
There is also any potential risk that targeting Deif (whether successful or not) could pose to any deal to save the remaining hostages in Hamas’s hands.
After the attack, one Hamas official told the AFP that Deif was “fine” and added that the hostage deal negotiations were set to “halt.”
While Hamas later denied any cessation of ceasefire talks, the risks are well and truly there. All for a cause that Israel cannot say happened or not.
Speaking on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said of the strike, “Yesterday, in a joint operation by the IDF and the Shin Bet, we attacked a compound in Khan Yunis where Mohammad Deif, the commander of the military wing of Hamas, was hiding – the man who planned and gave the order for the October 7 attacks.”
Halevi noted, “It is still too early to summarize the results of the attack, which Hamas is trying to hide. We are determined to continue to persecute senior Hamas officials, those who planned and carried out the massacre of October 7.”
The Israeli military has been down this road before. Deif’s alleged deaths and remarkable powers of escaping assassination have been well documented over the years. So much so, that the now-deceased Iranian Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani labeled Deif a “living martyr.”
The IDF is doing an admirable job in all it is attempting to do in Gaza – from locating and rescuing hostages to tracking down Hamas leaders and dismantling the terror state – but perhaps in the future, the IDF chiefs should wait and see before commenting on the possible death of one of Israel’s greatest enemies.