The hostage deal proposal being promoted by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar acting as mediators between Israel and Hamas might, at most, present a temporary ceasefire, but it does not promise long-term de-escalation in the Middle East. Sadly, the deal would not even lead to the release of all Israeli hostages.
If this deal would go ahead, however, it will fail to prevent Iran’s “unity of the fronts” strategy. Tehran’s overarching goal is to unify its proxies – such as Hamas and Hezbollah – across the region in their fight against Israel. This ambition means that despite temporary lulls in hostilities, Iran and its allies will not abandon their goals, while providing an opportunity for all sides, including Iranian-backed terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to regroup and recover.
To understand the current dynamics, it’s essential to recognize that this is not just another chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Iran is spearheading a much broader regional campaign to encircle Israel with hostile forces. The ongoing efforts of terror organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are part of a larger strategic framework aimed at weakening Israel’s defenses and expanding Iran’s influence.
This is why there is no urgency among these players to reach a ceasefire, and it looks like the whole campaign has shifted toward a war of attrition against Israel on various fronts.
Given this, the question arises: What could be done to secure a lasting solution?
Hamas and Hezbollah are immediate threats on Israel’s southern and northern borders. While Hezbollah has linked its own operations to the situation in Gaza, it’s important to recognize that a ceasefire in Gaza will not disarm them. Hezbollah, the Shi’ite Lebanese terror army, remains heavily armed and continues to pose a significant threat to Israel with its missile stockpiles and well-trained military operatives. Even in the event of a ceasefire, Israel must take a proactive stance in dealing with these terrorist groups. This requires both military action and international diplomacy.
Shifting international pressure away from Israel, often called upon to compromise on its security, and redirecting the pressure toward terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, would be one of the most effective approaches. The international community must understand that these groups are not legitimate political actors but terrorist organizations that pose a significant threat to regional stability. One should not assume they will respect agreements.
The international community can apply levers of influence such as financial sanctions, intelligence sharing, and military cooperation to weaken these groups.
Moreover, Israel must ensure that negotiations, whether about hostages or other issues, have clear deadlines. Without strict timelines, as seen in the prolonged nuclear negotiations with Iran, the other side gains time to achieve incremental successes, whether militarily or politically.
President Joe Biden
One of the key lessons from the current situation is the age-old adage, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” US President Joe Biden’s recent deployment of military assets to the Middle East serves as a clear signal to Iran. The US appears ready to deter Iranian aggression, but this show of force must extend to Iran’s proxies, who continue to test Israel’s defenses along its northern and southern borders.
Israel cannot afford to face Iran and its proxies alone. This is a battle that requires a broad international coalition, particularly with Western powers. While Israel is responsible for securing its borders and neutralizing immediate threats, dealing with Iran’s long-term ambitions demands coordination with the US and other allies.
Although the US seems eager to support Israel in its defensive operations, one should anticipate certain limitations. Israel cannot rely on American troops to defend its northern border, but it should expect Washington to provide the necessary military support, including weapons and ammunition, as well as backing in the UN Security Council. Furthermore, in the event that a military campaign against Iran becomes necessary, the United States must be a key partner.
This will require careful preparation and time. Israel cannot act alone. Strong coordination with the US and other Western allies is essential to confronting both the immediate threats posed by terrorist groups and the longer-term challenge of Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear threat.
The recent hostage deal – if it will be signed – offers only a temporary pause in the conflict at best, not a lasting solution. After the massacre of October 7, Israel cannot afford to live under the constant threat of terrorism on its borders. The international community, for its part, cannot afford to see the Iranian radical axis spread its dark and fanatical vision across the Middle East, and beyond.
The writer, a retired IDF lieutenant-colonel, is the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, which specializes in dealing with Israel’s security challenges on its northern borders.