Two weeks ago, the dormant 13-year-old Syrian civil war was barely on the radar of American and Israeli political, defense, and security leaders, with everyone focused on Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza. The lesson is that those who think they know what is coming next in Syria and the region are fooling themselves.
After the Arab Winter in 2011, when Egyptian President Mubarak was toppled, few saw the rapid rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, which led to the election of the anti-American Islamist President Morsi. His short tenure ended in a coup by military strongman al-Sisi, who is still the authoritarian President of Egypt.
In retrospect, the events in the region over the past thirteen years seem to make sense, but they certainly didn't at the time. Today's political leaders must force themselves to remember how precarious the situation was at the time and how little insight our defense, security, and intelligence analysts had as the events transpired in real-time.
Today, Iran is on the defensive, but as a cornered rat, it is more dangerous than ever. With attention grabbed by the events unfolding in Syria, one might presume that Iran has suffered a major strategic defeat and is in no position to cause trouble, as its primary proxy in Lebanon is isolated, and Syria is no longer under its thumb.
On the contrary, while everyone is focused on Syria and the march of the jihadists backed by Turkey's Islamist President Erdogan, we must not take our eye off the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose mullahs are likely to decide now is the time to dash to a nuclear weapon to become immune to an attack.
My recommendation to both the Biden and Trump administrations is to seize the moment of Israeli decapitation of Iran's anti-missile system as the right time to strike on the nuclear weapons program. A nuclear Iran remains a nightmare scenario for the Middle East, Israel, and US national security interests.
Turkey's rise in Syria
The apparent initial winner in Syria is Turkey, an American frenemy that is now ascendant in the region over Iran and Russia. From Erdogan's view, Turkey is now in the position it should rightfully have: the great Muslim power in the Middle East, fulfilling his neo-Ottoman imperialist vision of restoring the loss of Turkey's hundreds of years of leadership of the Muslim world.
The question is, will the jihadists of HTS be loyal to Erdogan over time? The alliances of the Syrian rebels could collapse. HTS are Salafists, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. The primary group Erdogan backed was the Syrian National Army (SNA), a rebel group that may be more moderate and weaker than HTS.
Will the stronger HTS jihadists devour their temporary SNA ally? Turkey will work with anyone who will allow it to take over northern Syria, ethically cleanse the Syrian Kurds from that region, and return the three million Syrian refugees to Syria who took shelter in Turkey during the civil war.
The Syrian Kurds, who helped the US defeat ISIS and are imprisoning tens of thousands of ISIS sympathizers, are now on the offensive from their territory in northwest Syria southward, taking over the crucial Sunni city of Deir al Zour. Turkey ethnically cleansed Kurds a few years ago from northeast Syria and is likely to turn its attention to the Kurds in the northwest, who they consider to be mortal enemies, part of the militant group PKK. The US sees the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as allies against ISIS. A Kurdish-Turkish war is the next shoe to fall, which will require the Trump administration to weigh in.
And what about the HTS's ideological jihadist cousins, ISIS (DAESH)? Is this an opportunity for them to arise and wreak havoc in Syria, Iraq, and through the Middle East again as they did a decade ago?
Russia will do all it can to preserve its Hmeimim air base in Latakia and its Tartus naval port on the Mediterranean. The Iran alliance is a casualty for the time being. However, Russia will still work with Iran as part of the axis of resistance, buying drones and missiles for its war in Ukraine, adding to the Supreme Leader's coffers.
As for Israel, it has preemptively moved forces into parts of the Syrian Golan to block jihadists on its border. Sunni jihadists are not friends of the Jewish State, but hopefully, a détente or ceasefire can be arranged. I doubt that HTS will directly speak with Israel, but Israel should try. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Remember, HTS's sponsor, Erdogan, protects Hamas and is profoundly anti-Semitic.
Syria was the target for hundreds of Israeli strikes over the years. Still, it was exclusively about stopping the transit of Iranian arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and, most recently, about targeting Iranian assets and advanced weapons factories in Syria. Israel is now hitting the last of the Syrian and Iranian weapons facilities in Syria to prevent them from falling into the hands of adversaries. However, Israel should anticipate Iran finding new ways to support Hezbollah.
And don't forget about Jordan. The jihadists can either march or inspire the Islamists in Jordan to destabilize a critical US ally, not to mention how Israel's security would be undermined with jihadists in Amman.
With a new American administration only five weeks away and many potential Trump candidates in intelligence and defense positions profoundly influenced by America's debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, the likely recommendation from this group will be for the US to do nothing.
However, the Marco Rubio-Mike Waltz faction knows better. Creating a vacuum in the Levant will create more chaos with the chance of American troops being drawn in again.
The temptation for the neo-isolationist wing is to remove the 900 US troops in the al-Tanf region in Syria, bordering Jordan and Iraq. They have been a stabilizing force in preventing the return of ISIS and supporting our Kurdish allies. They are a force multiplier for stability and should remain in place. But their safety needs to be watched closely and acted upon if the jihadists threaten them. In reality, their greatest threat is the Iranian-controlled militias in Iraq, and they are now on the defensive.
Now is not the time to forget about Iran. Suppose the Supreme Leader and the IRGC know America and Israel will not use kinetic actions to stop their dash to an atomic bomb. In that case, that is an invitation for the still dangerous Supreme Leader to act quickly to become a nuclear power and return to its hegemonic ambitions.
So, who will have President Trump's ear, Rubio, Waltz, and company, or Vice President-elect Vance and Tulsi Gabbard? As always, America may want to leave the Middle East, but the region keeps calling it back.
Dr. Eric Mandel is the Director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the Senior Security Editor of the Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign policy aides.