US President-elect Donald Trump’s imminent re-entry into the White House marks a new era for the Middle East, fundamentally different from the one of the Biden administration.
This week advanced negotiations were underway in Doha for a hostage deal with Hamas, mediated by Qatar. Reports suggest progress stems from a message sent by Trump’s envoy to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, conveying Trump’s desire for a deal before his upcoming inauguration on Monday.
Vice President-elect JD Vance stated in a Fox News interview this week that Trump intends to allow Israel to act against Hamas in Gaza and impose sanctions on terrorist organizations if Hamas does not reach an agreement with Israel before he takes office.
Vance explained Trump’s stance, warning there would be “hell in the Middle East,” and noted that the president plans to “enable Israel to destroy Hamas’s two battalions in central Gaza and its leadership” while imposing “severe sanctions on countries supporting terrorist organizations across the Middle East.”
At the forefront of security concerns for both Israel and the United States is the Iranian issue. While outgoing President Joe Biden pursued a diplomatic approach, his attempts to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) failed. His goal was to bring Iran back into full compliance with the deal in exchange for sanctions relief.
Despite significant efforts, progress was limited, and Iran, having continued advancing uranium enrichment, is now on the brink of becoming a nuclear threshold state. Although Biden did not lift all sanctions imposed by Trump, his overall policy was less stringent, granting the Islamic Republic economic maneuverability.
Biden's effectiveness
Biden strengthened security cooperation with the Gulf States and Israel but carefully balanced pressure on Iran with avoiding military escalation.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently presented Biden with a plan to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if Tehran advances uranium enrichment to a military level. Biden deserves credit, and Israel owes him gratitude for the famous “Don’t,” which prevented Hezbollah and Iran from joining Hamas at the onset of the Israel-Hamas War.
Last weekend, Iran revealed images for the first time of an underground missile storage facility and announced the production of “new special missiles,” according to its Tasnim News Agency. State television footage showed Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami touring the deep-underground facility alongside Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who called the site a “dormant volcano.”
ACCORDING TO the Islamic Republic’s semi-official Mehr News Agency, missiles stored there were used in Iran’s attacks on Israel in April and October 2024. During an event in Abadan, southwestern Iran, Salami declared the IRGC Air and Space Force is developing “new missiles with special capabilities” as part of efforts to bolster the regime’s security.
President Trump is expected to return to the assertive approach that characterized his previous term. His policy will differ significantly from Biden’s, focusing on exerting force and economic measures to curb Iran.
Trump is likely to reinstate the “maximum pressure” campaign, imposing further sanctions on the regime’s energy, banking, and military sectors. His goal is to prevent Iran from funding regional terror infrastructure and disrupting the global economy.
Trump will work to form a broader international coalition to pressure Iran, using institutions like the UN and collaborating with the Gulf States and Israel.
However, this approach may encounter resistance from European nations favoring diplomatic solutions. Continuing his prior strategy, Trump may consider targeted military action if Iran crosses “red lines,” such as advancing its nuclear program beyond a certain threshold – similar to the widely publicized assassination of Qasem Soleimani.
Trump will emphasize support for Israel and the Gulf States, strengthening their military and diplomatic alliances against the Islamic Republic. He may also back regional strategic projects aimed at weakening Iran’s influence. His policy might include more direct action against Iran’s regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
FOLLOWING THE weakening of the Iranian-Shi’ite axis, Iraq, which had previously requested US withdrawal, now seeks continued American presence. This request conflicts with Trump’s desire to reduce US military involvement in the Middle East.
However, Iraq, striving for political and security stability post-ISIS, needs the American presence to balance internal pressures and Iran’s influence. Trump may partially meet Iraq’s demand, likely maintaining a limited US force focused on training and security assistance. This presence would also serve as a deterrent against Iran’s regional influence, particularly through Shiite militias.
Trump, who previously declared the US should not intervene in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, now signals a continued avoidance of significant involvement in the new Syria under rebel control. He praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for supporting the rebels’ surprise offensive and now seeks to solidify Turkey’s foothold in Damascus’s new regime.
“No one knows who the other side is, but I do,” Trump said, referring to the uncertainty surrounding the jihadist rebels led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who now attempts to present a moderate image.
“Do you know who it is? Turkey! Turkey is behind this. Erdogan is very smart. They’ve wanted this for thousands of years, and he achieved it. The people who entered are controlled by Turkey. And that’s fine – it’s another way to fight,” he added, emphasizing Turkey’s emerging role in shaping Syria’s future.
DURING HIS first term, Trump took a hardline stance against the International Criminal Court (ICC), especially regarding potential investigations into US military and intelligence personnel involved in Afghanistan, as well as probes into Israel.
Trump declared the ICC a threat to US sovereignty and took unprecedented measures, notably sanctioning ICC officials. He will likely continue opposing the ICC through sanctions and threats, protecting American soldiers and citizens from international legal proceedings and supporting Israel. The elected US president will cooperate with Israel and other countries under ICC investigation to build an international coalition undermining the court’s authority. Trump may also emphasize national jurisdiction, arguing that sovereign states can handle internal matters independently.
Trump’s expected policy, while effective in many ways, carries risks.
The “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran has yet to achieve its goal of subduing the regime. Simultaneously, Israeli pressure on Trump will increase, as he, like his predecessor, pledged to prevent a nuclear Iran.
Israel has proven intelligence and military capabilities, as seen in past strikes on nuclear facilities in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007). In the face of a real threat, the Jewish state is likely to fulfill its warnings with surgical or large-scale strikes – but undoubtedly in coordination with and backed by American intelligence and logistical support.
Possible consequences of military action include direct and indirect Iranian retaliation, such as missile attacks on Israel and US bases in the Middle East. Iran may also activate its proxies – Shiites in Yemen and Iraq – to target Saudi oil reserves.
Such an attack could trigger global economic shocks, primarily due to its impact on the global oil supply. Military action could heighten tensions between Iran and Western states and deepen the Sunni-Shiite divide in the Middle East.
If Iran decides to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, it would mark a dangerous turning point, potentially igniting a nuclear arms race and escalating regional tensions, and drawing intervention and pressure from China and Russia, who have their own interests in the Middle East.
The writer is CEO of Radios 100FM, honorary consul general of Nauru, deputy dean of the Diplomatic Consular Corps, president of the Israel Radio Communication Association, and a former NBC News correspondent.