In the aftermath of the catastrophic failures of the Obama and Biden administrations—both of whom perpetuated the Carter-era approach toward the Islamic Republic of Shiite mullahs in Iran—it is evident that turning to diplomacy is a grave miscalculation, a futile strategy, and a naive fantasy.
Pro-Iran lobbyists and apologists, entrenched within the propaganda machine of the Islamic Republic across Europe and the United States, continue to echo this discordant message. However, former President Trump must avoid being drawn into this lose-lose game.
The era of “maximum pressure,” coupled with mechanisms such as the reactivation of the "snapback" sanctions, revealed the regime’s vulnerabilities like never before. The only viable path forward, if the goal is to establish a new Middle East and eradicate Islamic terrorism, is unwavering support for regime change in Tehran. Anything less will prolong this sinister game, sacrificing American and Israeli forces to the whims of a barbaric regime.
The Islamic Republic, under the guise of governance, has long operated as a state sponsor of terrorism. Its terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have perpetuated instability, leaving behind a trail of destruction. The regime’s domestic repression is no less egregious, as Iranians endure a collapsing economy, relentless corruption, and rampant human rights abuses.
However, beyond the potential threat of U.S. or Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic’s greatest fear lies in the prospect of a nationwide uprising by the Iranian people. This fear is compounded by the regime’s existential challenge of succession.
Vengeful Khamenei’s distrust
Ali Khamenei, known for his paranoia, vengefulness, and delusional tendencies, is deeply concerned about the fate of his son Mojtaba, who has been groomed as his successor. Khamenei is haunted by the memory of how Ahmad Khomeini was eliminated in a power struggle by Khamenei and Rafsanjani, and he dreads a similar fate for Mojtaba.
Khamenei’s distrust has led to the creation of overlapping intelligence and security agencies, each operating parallel to the other. This complex web of control reflects the dictator’s deep insecurity. Even in his final days, the disgraced tyrant of Iran continues to sow chaos and ignite conflict, demonstrating his insatiable thirst for bloodshed. He is determined to maintain his grip on the pinnacle of power, even from beyond the grave.
Diplomatic overtures at this critical juncture risk legitimizing and emboldening the regime. The cycle of negotiations, concessions, and betrayal is a well-worn tactic of Tehran’s theocratic regime. It is a distraction meant to buy time for their nuclear ambitions while appeasing global powers with hollow promises. Returning to this flawed approach would not only empower the regime but also squander the momentum gained by maximum pressure policies.
Now, more than ever, the focus must shift to supporting the Iranian people’s quest for freedom. Empowering dissidents and pro-democracy movements, combined with strategic international pressure, could pave the way for a future free of theocratic tyranny. Such a transformation is essential for a secure Middle East and the eradication of state-sponsored terrorism.
This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the trajectory of the region. Failure to act decisively will result in a prolonged cycle of violence, instability, and missed potential. History will not forgive those who chose appeasement over justice and pragmatism. The time is now to stand resolutely against the Islamic Republic and champion the formation of a new Middle East—one defined by freedom, peace, and security.
Trump’s intelligence team—and all intelligence agencies with new leadership—understand that the Iranian regime faces both internal and external challenges. The regime's crisis of legitimacy, public dissatisfaction, economic hardships, rampant inflation, widespread repression, and the growing divide between the people and the ruling establishment, coupled with mismanagement and governance failures, are clear signs of its fragility. On the external front, the looming threats of U.S. and Israeli military intervention, the possibility of the regime losing its nuclear ambitions, and the paralysis of its global terrorist network create a short-term outlook fraught with peril for Tehran.
These critical factors collectively strengthen the case for reviving the maximum pressure strategy and the snapback mechanism. It is neither logical nor politically prudent to give a hostile, isolated, and crisis-ridden country another lease on life under the guise of negotiations. The regime’s "paper tiger" is laid bare before the eyes of U.S. and Israeli military and intelligence centers. Its theatrical displays and the bluffs of its propaganda machinery lack credibility.
This combination of internal crises within a dictatorial regime has created a golden opportunity. Any new nuclear deal would simply act as artificial life support for Iran’s dictator. Why give a regime that champions terrorism another chance to survive? Why should Trump be swayed by the mirage of diplomacy and use a meaningless tool against a country that sought to assassinate him and destroy Israel? Offering diplomacy to a regime that is anti-peace, anti-humanity, and anti-regional stability is a futile, hollow, and failed endeavor.
The Tehran regime can only be restrained by one thing: the demonstration of strength and power. This would embolden the Iranian people to overcome their fears, solve the fundamental equation, and bring about regime change. The prevailing mindset in Iranian society is now firmly in favor of regime change, and the awareness of the Iranian people today cannot be compared to 1979, when a handful of Islamic and Marxist terrorists hijacked the country.
This golden opportunity must be seized to build a new Middle East, rather than pursuing the futile illusion of diplomacy that leads nowhere. Establishing a democratic Iran based on modern principles and human rights would align with the strategic interests of both the United States and Israel. Conversely, failing to achieve regime change in Iran would strengthen the Russia-China axis, pushing them toward forming new relationships with the emerging Israel-Arab alliance.