Welcome to the new Middle East, which, for good or ill, was unimaginable six months ago. President Donald Trump can leverage the newfound US, Israeli, and moderate Sunni influence to advance diplomatic and strategic initiatives. Still, it will not be easy.
The administration has to deal with an ascendant and aggressive Turkey that will dominate Syria and challenge the Saudis for supremacy in the Sunni world, an unrepentant Hamas and Hezbollah, and a wounded but still dangerous Islamic Republic of Iran, also at odds with both the Saudis and Turks.The right mix of carrots and sticks and the willingness to walk away will test the secretary of state, the national security team, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, another real estate titan.
The first question: Can effective and sustainable ceasefires and enforceable agreements be implemented with the ideologically driven Iranian, Hezbollah, and Houthi Shi’ites, as well as with Islamist Sunni Hamas and the new Islamist overlords in Syria, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
As a past example of the challenge, in the name of the radical religious good, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave his nuclear negotiators the religiously sanctioned license to dissimilate or lie to advance their grand strategic vision of hegemony. They can be pragmatic, charming, and patient for long-term objectives.
Jihadists want to emulate Muhammad
The prophet Muhammad preached patience when weak and aggression when dominant. Jihadists of all stripes, from Hamas to the mullahs in Tehran, aim to emulate the prophet. Not your average New York real estate negotiating rival. In other words, can you deal with Islamists the same way you conducted business at home?
PREVIOUS US administrations fundamentally misunderstood how deeply religion is intertwined with everything in Muslim societies, nations, and entities and incorporated into their national ethos. In the 20th century, the Turkish government was the last secular Muslim democracy, but no more; under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it has become the leading light of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
Another example is the Palestinian Authority, which has been dangerously misrepresented as a secular outfit by political elites but is, in reality, deeply motivated by Sunni beliefs. Not understanding this will cause any arrangement with them for a ceasefire in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria to fail.
To get the best but still modest results in the Levant, you must understand your negotiating adversary, what motivates them, what their weaknesses are, and what they will not or cannot change.
Negotiating a gas deal with the moderate Western-leaning United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia is light years away from interacting with Iran or Hamas. The first rule is to not assume you can understand their motivations.
If you only see Islam as Sunni or Shi’ite, radicals vs moderates, it is more than likely that you will misjudge your opponent in negotiations. When your negotiating adversary is religiously indoctrinated, willing to have their people suffer for their greater world perspective, you may be left scratching your head when what is obviously desirable to you is turned down.
In the age of Trump, America may choose to show more restraint in muscular foreign policy. But if it is believed to be willing, under the right circumstances, to use military force, America can advance its diplomatic agenda, allowing us to pivot toward our primary adversary – China. In the Middle East, you will lose if you are not perceived as strong and willing to use force.
There are pressing topics that should be addressed in the US administration’s first three months. With the International Atomic Energy Agency acknowledging in January 2025 that Iran has more than 200 kg. of near weapons-grade uranium on hand, there is no time to waste.
A fundamental problem of the Obama and Biden nuclear negotiators was that the ayatollah outplayed their administrations, knowing they were desperate for a deal. Trump, in The Art of the Deal, wrote: “The worst thing you can do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”
During his presidency, Barack Obama gave the world’s leading state sponsor of terror the right to enrich uranium, and the media chose to remain silent. With the Israeli strikes on Iran and the success of the US air defense array stopping hundreds of ballistic Iranian missiles, leverage is on the US administration’s side.
Behind the scenes, there should be a demand that Iran unilaterally transfer all of its enriched uranium to a third party. If this is not done within 30 days, don’t wait; impose maximum sanctions on Iran, as well as secondary sanctions on those who buy its fossil fuels, including China.Make it clear that any Iranian proxy attacks on American troops going forward, whether from Houthis or Iranian-controlled Iraqi proxies, will be responded to at the source of the threat – on Iranian soil. Iran will continue to create mischief as long as the fundamentalist regime remains in place.So, the next goal should be rhetorically calling for regime change and being pro-Iranian people.
Almost everything in dealing with our moderate Gulf partners will be easier if Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize their relationship. This means a more formalized American-Saudi-UAE-Israeli joint air defense plan, a civilian Saudi nuclear project with strict American-monitored safeguards, and convincing Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, the Saudi de facto ruler, to accept the president’s first-term peace plan, “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of Palestinians and Israelis,” as his own.
It could be the basis for future negotiations if the Palestinians ever evolve from jihadists to neighbors. It would satisfy MBS’s need for an eventual path forward. In addition, if the PA can weaken Hamas in Samaria and Judea (West Bank), it can be helpful in Gaza. This will be needed to get Arab nations to put boots on the ground in Gaza.
Finally, the administration cannot look away as Qatar’s support of radical Sunni Islamists continues. Are they really a major non-NATO ally? It is time to quietly pressure the Qataris to move onto the American side of the strategic Middle East ledger. Not so easy, since the Qataris, like the Turks, are tied to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Turkish regime under Erdogan is a more complex American challenge, as it has NATO’s second-largest military, with 800,000 soldiers, and threatens another ethnic cleansing of US-allied Syrian Kurds who control the resurgence of ISIS.
Bridging and negotiating the impending divide between Turkey, their client state in Syria, and Israel will take true American statesmanship. The carrot to Erdogan cannot be the obliteration of the Kurds. The diplomatic message worldwide would then be that America doesn’t stand with our allies.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz get it; they recognize that each Islamist entity requires special handling; there is no one-size-fits-all negotiation. If they stay true to form, the next Trump book could be called, The Art of Transactional Deals with Islamists.
The writer is the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report and director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political and Information Network.